Another Jeff Hoffman meltdown forcing Blue Jays fans into the Louis Varland conversation

"Louis Varland should be the closer of the Toronto Blue Jays, not Jeff Hoffman," says the internet. After the results of Tuesday's game (Apr. 14) against the Milwaukee Brewers, the fan base has a clear case to make. It's the third time in five tries this season in which Hoffman has blown a save. Although one of those times wasn't really his fault, with the game changing on a Tyler Heineman error during their series sweep at the hands of the Chicago White Sox.

On Tuesday evening, in the Blue Jays 9-7 victory in ten innings, Hoffman allowed the game tying run in the bottom of the ninth, while walking three and only getting two outs - losing out on the save. Varland got the final out in the ninth, the bats gave him a three run cushion to work with in the tenth, and then Varland closed the game for his first win of the season with a final stat line of 1.1 IP, 2H, 1R, 0ER, 0BB, 2K.

And let's face it, the "save" stat is isn't really what's important, it's about getting outs at the end of the game and limiting the other team from scoring runs, and Hoffman has had less success in doing that, compared to Varland.

Varland hasn't allowed a run in nine games and 10.1 innings pitched. He's given up three un-earned runs, on seven hits, while striking out 15 batters and walking three. Hoffman has also pitched in nine games, with 8.1 innings under his belt. He's given up six runs (four earned), one home run, and has walked five batters while striking out 18.

With Varland executing better than Hoffman right now, the closer's job may be his

It really feels like it just comes down to the execution between Varland and Hoffman. Hoffman has some terrific numbers. He's getting hitters to chase at a 45.4% rate (99th percentile) and they are whiffing on his pitches at a 44.0% rate (99th percentile). He's also struck out 43.9% of the batters he's faced (99th percentile).

However, he seems to be getting a bit unlucky with the timing of when opponents are making contact and cashing in runs. His xERA is sitting at 2.37 (88th percentile) and his xBA is sitting at .191 (84th percentile), suggesting he's done his job as the ball leaves his hand, it's everything that happens after that, that's hurt his case. Hitters own a .278/.366/.389 slash line against him this year with a .529 BABIP.

His hard hit percentage sits at 33.3% which ranks in the 77th percentile. So while it's not like every single hitter is coming up and hitting the ball hard, the ones that do, are doing some damage. Out of the ten hits he has allowed, eight of them have come off the bat at 94 mph or harder - but he's also allowed just two extra base hits, a double and a home run.

This feels like it's the ultimate small sample size of a reliever who is actually pitching really well, but getting a bit unlucky with some of the hits he's given up, leading to a much higher than expected hit rate and ERA.

But results are what matters when you sometimes only have three outs to play with everytime you come into the game. And if we're looking at those results and trying to compare who should be responsible for getting, arguably, the biggest outs of the game, the results seem to favour Varland. Just like Hoffman, Varland's analytics on Baseball Savant are streaming in the red - but so are the outcomes. Hitters aren't chasing his stuff as much as they are chasing Hoffman's but they are making much weaker contact overall.

Varland's barrel % is currently 0% and his hard hit rate is 35%, while he's getting ground balls at an elite 60% rate (92nd percentile). He's given up seven hits, all singles, and only two of them have been hit at 94 mph or harder. Opponents have a .206/.263/.206 slash line against Varland, but still have a .350 BABIP.

Because of that, Varland's expected xERA is 1.66, but his xBA is still lower at .174, suggesting he's getting just ever so slightly lucky that he has yet to give up a run. But those expected numbers showcase how close in effectiveness Hoffman and Varland have actually been.

So perhaps it just comes down to the better matchups. There are so many factors that play into that in trying to figure out who best to put on the mound. Manager John Schneider has to sift through things like, where are the opponents in their batting order, how has Hoffman or Varland fared against specific batters, how many days of rest are they on, how do the hitters react to certain pitch types. It's enough to drive someone crazy trying to play the best percentages in order to create successful situations for your team.

But right now, if Schneider were to leave the closers role open to a "who's got the hottest hand" scenario, Varland just slightly takes the edge over Hoffman at this moment.

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