The Toronto Blue Jays aren’t off to the start they had hoped for after their 2025 World Series trip. They started the season with a three-game sweep of the Athletics, but then have gone 3-9, including losing two games to the Colorado Rockies and being swept by the Chicago White Sox, all of which were winnable games.
The Blue Jays have the second-worst run differential, -25, and rank 24th among MLB teams in runs per game (3.80) due to being fourth in runners left on base (119). The team also averages 4.20 runners left in scoring position per game, ranking 28th, meaning they are hitting in low-leverage situations but not in high-leverage ones.
Despite the slow start, a few standout players have emerged. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Daulton Varsho, and Kevin Gausman are off to hot starts. These players could all find themselves in the top 10 discussion for AL MVP. Looking at early predictions for the MVP race, a recent ESPN article has a surprise name in their top 10, who any one of these Blue Jays’ players should be able to outperform.
They named Ben Rice as a player to finish in the top 10 of the AL MVP voting, which comes as a slight surprise. He had a solid sophomore season last year, hitting 26 home runs, scoring 74 times, and knocking in 65 runs. As of April 12 this season, the 27-year-old is off to a hot start, slashing .356/.500/.756, with four home runs, 14 runs, and 12 RBIs.
What’s surprising about Rice being considered a top 10 MVP is that he’s a strong side-platoon hitter. As a left-handed batter, he regularly sits or is replaced late in games when a southpaw is pitching. Last season, he had 411 plate appearances against righties, but only 119 appearances versus lefties. This year is no different, as he has only had 10 appearances against lefties, compared to 48 appearances against righties.
With these limitations, it’ll reduce the votes Rice receives, as he’s not an everyday player, so his opportunities to produce are restricted. This will open up a window for these Blue Jays to make an appearance in the MVP top 10.
There are a few Blue Jays who can take away MVP votes from Ben Rice
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Vladdy is not a surprise here as he is the face of the Blue Jays. He’s been a hitting machine this season, slashing .321/.446/.434. Although, he’s off to a slow start in the power department with only one home run over 64 plate appearances, but has scored six runs and five RBIs. With this production, he ranks third in wRC+ (152), which means that despite the low power production, Guerrero Jr. is still providing massive value offensively.
He’s had slow starts to seasons, not hitting his first home run until the 19th game last season, but still finished with 23. The Blue Jays’ offense will figure itself out, so expect to see Vladdy at the top of the AL MVP race.
Daulton Varsho
Varsho has been a consistent producer over his seven-year MLB career. However, his issue is staying healthy, as he has missed time in the last two seasons, making three trips to the injury list. Last season, Varsho only played in 71 games, but he still hit 20 home runs, scored 43 times, and recorded 55 RBIs.
It took Varsho a few games to warm up this season, going 6-for-40 at the plate, only scoring three times and knocking in one run over his first 11 games. He’s since come alive, going 7-for-18, hitting two home runs, scoring four runs, and driving in five RBIs. If Varsho can stay healthy and he can repeat his power swing from last season, then he should earn MVP votes.
Kevin Gausman
The ace of the Blue Jays’ pitching staff is off to a fast start in his three starts this season. He’s thrown 17.1 innings, posted a 2.08 ERA, and even more impressive is his 26:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His four-seam fastball and split-finger have been making batters look bad. These pitches have Gausman in the 97th percentile in chase rate (40.8%), and even though his ERA is fantastic, his expected ERA is even better (1.75), putting him in the 96th percentile.
Obviously, a pitcher winning the MVP Award is a long shot unless your name is Shohei Ohtani. The last non-two-way pitcher to win the award was Clayton Kershaw in 2014. In that season, he had a 21-3 record, a 1.77 ERA, and struck out 250 batters. Gausman can match the ERA and get close to the strikeouts, but he needs his teammates on offense to perform better to match Kershaw’s win total. However, Gausman may not win the award, but a Kershaw-esque season would steal some of Rice’s MVP votes and earn the Blue Jays ace a top 10 appearance.
