2 worrisome Blue Jays trends we believe will last, 2 that seem like a mirage

12 games into the season and the Toronto Blue Jays are 5-7, salvaging a win in their series against the LA Dodgers and getting an ugly six-game losing streak snapped in the process. It's not where they had hoped they would be two weeks into the year, but it's also almost commendable considering the barrage of injuries they have had to endure before and during the season already.

And while there are some trends that suggest the worrying start does seem like a mirage, there are a few others that might linger and become problematic throughout the 2026 campaign.

The trends that are worrying two weeks into the season could be a problem all year

Worrisome trend No. 1: Power discrepancy

In 2025, the Blue Jays had a hard time getting the ball over the wall. While they eventually would go on to hit 191 home runs, tied for 11th in the league, they also allowed 209 home runs to the opposition. A -18 home run differential for those keeping track. It's not a terrible number, but certainly one you'd like to see improvement on in the following year, especially when you have the high expectations and ambitions of a team that is hoping to get back to the World Series.

Well, here we are in the following year and so far the power discrepancy has returned. The Blue Jays pitchers have given up 14 home runs (going into Friday Apr. 10) while they Blue Jays hitters have pumped out 10 long bombs. It's unfortunate, but this might be the reality the Blue Jays face this year. There were high hopes that this Blue Jays team could easily surpass their home run output from a year ago, and maybe even be a top 10 home run hitting team. But so far, they haven't shown it. Andrés Giménez and Kazuma Okamoto are the only players that have hit more than one home run.

The Blue Jays haven't gotten a single home run yet from Addison Barger or Daulton Varsho and while the former is injured at the moment, the latter isn't making enough hard contact right now, which is unfortunate considering how much he was tearing the cover off the ball in spring. Varsho also had a monster power season a year ago in between two lengthy IL stints. He hit 20 home runs and had a 123 wRC+ in 71 games.

Meantime, on the pitching side, three of the 14 home runs allowed by Blue Jays pitchers belongs to Brendon Little, who was optioned to Triple-A Buffalo last week. Take those away and Toronto hone has a -1 differential. But it's also the live or die mentality of the Blue Jays pitchers who rack up a ton of strikeouts by throwing hard and fast pitches in the zone. While that gets a lot of whiffs, the downside you have to live with is that sometimes when those batters don't whiff, those hard and fast pitches travel very hard and very fast in the opposite direction.

Mirage trend No. 1: Defense will get better

For a team that was lauded for it's Gold Glove level defense over the last few years, they have certainly been kicking the ball around a lot in the early going. They have a team defensive fielding percentage of .977, which ranks 14th in the league. They've made 10 errors, with several of them leading directly to runs scored against. However, they still have the fifth best Outs Above Average rating of +4 and a defensive fWAR of 4.2 which ranks fourth in the league. It's not out of the question to suggest the defense should continue to improve with the overall level of play.

Worrisome trend No. 2: Relief pitchers carrying the load

The Blue Jays spend a ton of time this offseason building up their pitching depht in the hopes that the rotation would be a clear strength going into the season. But the injuries have really hampered them and while the starting pitchers have been very good, all things considered, the bullpen has been asked to already work a ton of innings this season. Going into Friday (Apr. 10) the Blue Jays bullpen ranks third in the league in innings pitched with 59 and have had mixed success. Their 69 strikeouts lead the league, but their .289 batting average against is the second worst mark.

Similar to what was touched on with the home runs, the Blue Jays look like they could correct those numbers with some more stability in the 'pen, but the workload may not decrease going forward. Blue Jays starter Dylan Cease, as good as he's been, doesn't go deep into games. Max Scherzer only lasted two innings in his last outing, while Eric Lauer is typically a five inning guy as a starter. Perhaps that was the goal when signing and calling up Patrick Corbin, as the Blue Jays did this week.

Corbin has been an absolute workhorse in his career. Even if the results haven't always been great, Corbin has eaten up innings like it's his job, and perhaps he comes in and provides some bulk work to give the Blue Jays pen a bit of a breather.

Mirage trend No. 2: Numbers with RISP will improve.

It's been one of the biggest sources of frustration so far for the Blue Jays offence this season, they haven't capitalized on their opportunities to cash in. They are 1-for-19 with the bases loaded with six strikeouts. They have hit .215/.323/.280 with one home run in 107 at-bats with runners in scoring position. However, it feels like the luck will start turning as they continue to put the ball in play. They've struck out 25 times in those 107 at-bats, which is tied for the 8th best mark in the league in that category.

They have a .274 BABIP but only a 26.2% hard hit rate in those situations. Stands to reason that if they continue to show patience, and see an uptick in hitting the ball harder, those numbers will start to even out and they'll have better success in trying to cash in runs.