Toronto Blue Jays: AL East Matchups to Watch For Through the End of the Season

The Toronto Blue Jays certainly have a clear path to the postseason as we look ahead to some key AL East matchups through the end of the 2022 season. With 35 games remaining in the regular season, they’ll face AL East opponents a whopping 25 more times through October 5th; in other words, they control their own fate and can guarantee postseason baseball if they take care of business on the field.

That final stretch includes ten games against a much tougher Baltimore Orioles team that trails Toronto by 2.0 games for the third and final Wild Card spot. It features a key five-game series at home against the Tampa Bay Rays, who are currently a game ahead of the Blue Jays in the Wild Card standings and good for second place in the East. And it includes thirteen straight against AL East peers Tampa Bay (away), New York and Boston (both series at home), and then three in Baltimore to close out the season.

Looking at the remaining strength of schedule for the AL Wild Card picture (using opponent winning percentage), those teams look like this:

Rays:             .544

Mariners:     .449

Blue Jays:     .513

Orioles:         .506

Twins:           .484

Cleveland:    .480

White Sox:   .470

Blue Jays: AL East Matchups to Watch For

After the Rays, Toronto has the toughest remaining strength of schedule for potential AL Wild Card teams but the head-to-head games mean they can gain or lose a game relative to those AL East peers with each win or loss.

The FanGraphs playoff odds page has Toronto as the odds-on favourite to play more October baseball after the regular season. So let’s look at some of those key AL East matchups ahead fans should watch for.

Tampa Bay Rays

With nine more games against Tampa Bay, winning at least five of them would help the Jays gain at least one game on the Rays, all else equal.

Winning six of them would ensure the Jays hold the season series tiebreaker 10-9, which will determine playoff seeding in case of a tie after the 162-game regular season. But the Rays are playing some of their best baseball of the season, going 7-3 in their past ten with a +55 run differential that only trails the Yankees and Astros in the American League.

They’ve just given a two-year contract extension through 2024 to the rehabbing Tyler Glasnow, and last year locked up star shortstop Wander Franco to an 11-year deal worth $182 million, with an option for a 12th year for a total of $223 million. This signifies a change in payroll upside for the Rays, who have never previously paid any player a $25 million annual salary.

Since trading for super-utilityman Isaac Parades ahead of their season opener, and adding LF David Peralta and CF Jose Siri ahead of the August 2nd trade deadline, the Rays have been having a solid season.

The team is 16-9 since the trade deadline and features strong starting pitching led by Cy Young candidate Shane McClanahan, and a lights-out bullpen featuring former Blue Jay Jason Adam, Brooks Raley, Colin Poche and Pete Fairbanks.

Their team ERA is the third best in baseball after the Dodgers and Guardians since August 2nd at 2.97, and they lead baseball on FIP at 2.97 as well. This is a team that doesn’t beat itself, with only 64 unearned runs on 63 errors season to date and they have just enough offense to win 70 games so far and go 30-25 against AL East opponents season to date.

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Baltimore Orioles

While FanGraphs only puts their playoff odds at around ~10% at present, they have a slightly easier strength of schedule than the Jays remaining at .506%. With ten more games against Baltimore, winning seven of them would ensure the Jays hold the season series tiebreaker 10-9, which will determine playoff seeding in case of a tie.

That will be a tough ask though, as seven of their remaining ten head-to-head games are at Camden Yards, where the Orioles are 37-24 (.607 winning percentage). The O’s have also gone 15-9 since trading away longtime star Trey Mancini and closer Jorge Lopez at the trade deadline.

And as per MLBTR,

The Orioles – the surprise of the 2022 season – have some decisions to make about their September roster. The biggest decisions center on top prospects Grayson Rodriguez, DL Hall, and Gunnar Henderson, the 56th, 4th, and top-ranked prospects in the game, per Baseball America.

This is a good team, brimming with prospects and full of solid hitters and pitchers. They have the 11th lowest FIP in baseball (and 6th lowest in the AL) since August 2nd, not to mention the 9th lowest ERA at 3.55 (7th in the AL) driven by an outstanding bullpen. By comparison, the Blue Jays own a 3.96 ERA  and a 3.87 FIP over the same time period.

The Orioles hitters have been performing well ahead of expectations as well, led by phenom catcher Adley Rutschman and RF Anthony Santander.

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table