While FanGraphs only puts their playoff odds at around ~10% at present, they have a slightly easier strength of schedule than the Jays remaining at .506%. With ten more games against Baltimore, winning seven of them would ensure the Jays hold the season series tiebreaker 10-9, which will determine playoff seeding in case of a tie.
That will be a tough ask though, as seven of their remaining ten head-to-head games are at Camden Yards, where the Orioles are 37-24 (.607 winning percentage). The O’s have also gone 15-9 since trading away longtime star Trey Mancini and closer Jorge Lopez at the trade deadline.
And as per MLBTR,
"The Orioles – the surprise of the 2022 season – have some decisions to make about their September roster. The biggest decisions center on top prospects Grayson Rodriguez, DL Hall, and Gunnar Henderson, the 56th, 4th, and top-ranked prospects in the game, per Baseball America."
This is a good team, brimming with prospects and full of solid hitters and pitchers. They have the 11th lowest FIP in baseball (and 6th lowest in the AL) since August 2nd, not to mention the 9th lowest ERA at 3.55 (7th in the AL) driven by an outstanding bullpen. By comparison, the Blue Jays own a 3.96 ERA and a 3.87 FIP over the same time period.
The Orioles hitters have been performing well ahead of expectations as well, led by phenom catcher Adley Rutschman and RF Anthony Santander.