Blue Jays records that could be broken in 2022

With the 2022 MLB season well underway, there’s plenty of excitement about the potential of the Toronto Blue Jays. While the ultimate goal is obviously bringing the World Series back north of the border, there are plenty of individual stars on this team who look primed for huge seasons.

Players like Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Bo Bichette, George Springer, and Matt Chapman have all led the league in statistical categories in years past and seem like obvious candidates to break some records. Throw in players like Springer and Jordan Romano, who could put up career numbers considering how much talent there is surrounding them, and you have the perfect setup for some new single-season records.

Being a relatively young franchise (as opposed to division rivals like the Red Sox, Yankees, and Orioles) the Blue Jays still have plenty of offensive records that are well within range, and even though it certainly isn’t their main goal, I would imagine the players are aware of this. With how much better offence has gotten over time though, many of the pitching records are fairly out of reach, so don’t expect to see many of those here (Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah look pretty good, but I highly doubt a single pitcher in baseball will surpass Dave Stieb’s record of 288.1 inning pitched, or either of Roger Clemens two Cy Young seasons).

As opposed to covering the records one by one, I’ll be going player by player and going over the records they could break, because there are quite a few of them. With all that said, here are the Blue Jays who I think we could see break some single-season franchise records in 2022.

Bo Bichette

In 2021 Bo Bichette led the American League in hits with 191, which was good enough for 10th all-time in Blue Jays history, despite only hitting .298. Now, .298 is a pretty good batting average, 6th best in the American League in fact, but it’s the lowest batting average by the American League hits leader since Nellie Fox in 1952. Bo also went through some notable slumps, hitting .260 in March/April, .265 in May, and .250 in August. All this is to say that if Bo has a slightly more consistent 2022, the single-season team record of 215 in 2003 by Vernon Wells could be within reach. I know he’s gotten off to a bit of a slow start, hitting .222 with a 61 OPS+ in 10 games, but I see no reason for him not to bounce back and continue getting hits.

There are a few other more low-key records that Bichette has a shot at, and the easiest may be runs scored. His 121 in 2021 were the 5th most in team history, and as he’s started the season hitting in the two-hole, he’ll have plenty of opportunities to score with Guerrero Jr. hitting right behind him.

This one may be a long shot, but Bo was taking bags at an insane rate in 2021, stealing 25 in 26 attempts, and even though the team record of 55, set in 1993, may be quite a bit more, it’s not impossible. When Roberto Alomar stole 55 he also got caught 15 times, and that’s the approach Bichette would have to take if he wants the record. If he and Montoyo simply don’t care about how many times he tries to steal, it’s certainly doable. Unlikely, but doable.

Matt Chapman

Before I get into this I would like to make one thing clear. I think that Matt Chapman is a very good hitter, but he will not be breaking any offensive records. His biggest asset is his defence, and that’s something that could break records.

Chapman is easily one of the best defenders in baseball. If you watched any games so far this season you’ll have seen it. Everything in the field just comes to him so easily. This ability sets him up perfectly to break some single-season Blue Jays records that you may not necessarily be thinking about.

Per Baseball Reference, the current single-season record for defensive WAR (dWAR) is 3.9, set by Devon White in 1992. That ranks 12th all-time in American League dWAR, but Chapman’s career-high of 3.3, set in his second straight Platinum Glove winning 2019 season, isn’t that far off. dWAR is also a bit of a finicky stat and often relies on the fielder simply preventing hits by staying close to the line, so if Chapman really pushed for it, 3.9 certainly isn’t untouchable.

Fielding runs is another defensive metric measured by Baseball Reference, and the current Jays single-season record holder is once again held by Devon White in 1992, with 32.5. Again, Chapman’s career-high isn’t too far off, posting 28 fielding runs in 2019, which would already be good enough for second in franchise history.

There are a number of other defensive metrics like defensive runs saved or outs above average that I could talk about, but at this point, it would feel redundant. The point is that Matt Chapman is elite defensively and if would expect him to have a shot at breaking most Blue Jays single-season defensive records in 2022.

Jordan Romano

It’s very early, but Jordan Romano already has six saves through the Blue Jays first 10 games. That’s obviously a completely unsustainable pace, but if he even continues at half that efficiency, he would easily break Duane Ward’s franchise record of 45 in 1993. Romano has been the Blue Jays full-time closer for less than a year, yet has already proven himself as one of baseball’s most reliable last game arms. He’s converted a franchise-record 29 consecutive save opportunities dating back to May 11, 2021, so if he’s given the opportunity, I see no reason why he won’t hit 45 at the very least in 2022.

Saves are great and all, but in reality, they’re often not that hard to get. You could come into the game up three runs, let up two straight bombs, get three fluky outs, and still get the save. ERA is a much better measure of a pitcher’s true effectiveness, and BJ Ryan currently holds the Blue Jays record for lowest reliever ERA (at least 60 innings pitched), posting a 1.37 in 2006 over 72.1 innings. It may be tough, but the way he’s pitching right now, it’s certainly not impossible.

Reliever records in general can be a bit tricky since the role of relievers has changed so much over the years, but given how he’s pitching, he should be on watch for almost anything. To add to that, he also has a pretty good shot at breaking most records for Canadian-born relievers with the Jays (many of which he already owns).

Vladimir Guerrero Jr

I imagine it comes as no surprise to you that Vladimir Guerrero Jr will constantly be on record watch in 2022. His 2021 season ranked top five in franchise history in slugging, OPS, OPS+, runs scored, total bases, home runs, and many other categories.

The big record to watch is obviously home runs, with the current record being held by Jose Bautista, who hit 54 in 2010. Vladdy came up six short of that in 2021, but only 11 games in 2022 he leads baseball with five homers. 54 is a lot of balls to hit over the fence, but I don’t think there’s a single person that doubts Vladdy can do it.

My offensive stat of choice is usually OPS+ (or WRC+ they’re pretty much interchangeable) and the current franchise record is held by John Olerud, who posted a league-leading 186 OPS+ in 1993. Vladdy had a 200 OPS+ in the first half of 2021, so if he can keep a similar pace up over a full season he would have no trouble breaking that record.

Finally, he should be a serious contender to break Jose Bautista’s position player WAR record of 8.3 in 2011 (per Baseball Reference). It’s still very early, but thus far in the season he’s on pace for almost 12 WAR over a full 162 game season, so once again, if he continues anywhere near that pace, he’ll shatter another one of Bautista’s records.

The Blue Jays have had some pretty phenomenal hitters throughout their history, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr has the potential to top them all, and I imagine that when we look at the record books in a few years, you’ll see his name more than a few times.