Toronto Blue Jays: Guerrero Jr., Biggio and Mayza Qualify for Super Two Status

According to Tim Dierkes of MLBTR, this year’s Super Two cutoff point has been set at precisely two years and 116 days of service (2.116), making players with between that number and 3.0 years of service time eligible for salary arbitration for the first time this offseason.

This quirky marker affects the financial value for the top 22% of players (in terms of service time) with between two and three years of service time under the current CBA.

Here are the Super Two cutoffs for the last five seasons:

2020: 2.125
2019: 2.115
2018: 2.134
2017: 2.123
2016: 2.131

Just a quick refresher, as per MLBTR:

"Major League players earn “service time” for every day spent on an MLB roster.  One year of MLB service is defined as 172 days, despite the fact that there are more days than that in the regular season. Upon reaching three years of service time, all players become eligible for salary arbitration."

Four Blue Jays Meet the Super Two Cutoff

Those players meeting the cutoff who spent at least 86 days of this season on a 26-man roster or the Major League IL become eligible for arbitration a year early and can go through the arbitration process four times absent a longer-term contract extension.

Based on this calculation, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (2.157), Cavan Biggio (2.129), and Tim Mayza (2.156) all qualify for an extra year of arbitration under the current CBA. Bo Bichette (2.063), Jordan Romano (2.051), Reese McGuire (2.027) all missed the cutoff. While Trent Thornton reached the cutoff at 2.130, he might be a non-tender candidate.

While the arbitration process will obviously depend on what is built into a new MLB CBA after the current agreement expires this coming week on December 1st, this suggests Guerrero Jr., Biggio and Mayza are all now in-line for substantial raises instead of earning the minimum, team-controlled salary in 2022.

According to Jason Martinez at RosterResource, Vlad Guerrero Jr. is expecting to fetch an arbitration-based raise to $7.9 million from the $605,400 he earned in 2021. Spotrac puts that number at $8.0 million, while Cot’s Contracts projects $8.75 million. Absent a long-term contract extension, it is unlikely anyone who would see that as expensive for the 2021 AL MVP award finalist.

Cavan Biggio is projected to see a raise to between $1.5 ~$1.75 million in 2022 salary while Tim Mayza could see between $1.0 ~ $1.2 million. Again, you’d be hard-pressed to find too many fans thinking these were excessive amounts for these players.

In terms of other already arbitration-eligible players, Teoscar Hernandez is projected to see the largest raise in 2022, from $4.325 million this year to anywhere between $9.25 ~ 10.0 million. Ross Stripling is expected to see his salary jump from $3.0 million to between $4.25 ~ $4.4 million.

We’ll have to wait and see what a new CBA means for Super Two status under the salary arbitration process. There has been a concern that service time is often manipulated for top prospects when they are first called up to the bigs to avoid the Super Two cutoff, so there could be changes made under any new CBA.

But as things stand now, the Blue Jays competitive balance (CB) payroll looks to be somewhere between $133 ~140 million for 2022 absent any additional moves or free agent signings before the CBA.