Blue Jays: The free agent stars they won’t be bidding on

The Blue Jays haven’t been afraid to bid on the top free agents over the last few years, but I expect there will be a few they’ll stay away from this time around.

Before you start looking for me on Twitter to tell me how much money their ownership has, or any other reason why you might think I’m wrong, know that for me this isn’t about money. As I look at this year’s crop of free agents, I believe that there are three premium players that the Jays won’t be bidding on, or even really kicking the tires. You might hear the Blue Jays linked to just about everybody, but there are some cases I’ll have an easier time believing than others.

While the Jays have a talented young core that is worth investing in, and the potential funds to make some impact moves, the front office still has to weigh each decision carefully. That’s especially the case with so many in-house stars that will need to be extended over the next few years, and only so much payroll space to go around. While they saw Robbie Ray, Marcus Semien, and Steven Matz become free agents this week, the same could happen a year from now with Jose Berrios, two years from now for Teoscar Hernandez, and even in four years when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette could hit the open market. I fully expect the Blue Jays to increase payroll for 2022, and likely to do the same again the following year, but there will always be a limit.

With that in mind, which players do I see as off limits for the Blue Jays? Allow me to break it down for you on a case by case basis.

Don’t expect another Houston import

Whenever you can sign a big free agent away from another contender there is always an added degree of satisfaction, and that was exactly the case when the Jays landed former Houston Astros star George Springer last winter. That said, I don’t expect history to repeat itself this offseason.

The Astros may very well lose arguably their most important position player in Carlos Correa, who is now officially a free agent for the first time. There are rumours floating around that his representation is seeking a nine or ten year deal, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see a request in the neighbourhood of 300 million. It remains to be seen how many bidders could be in play at that level, but Correa is an elite player. For what it’s worth, MLBtraderumors.com has him slated for 10 years and 320 million.

While he would be a fantastic fit in the middle infield in Toronto, there’s no way the Blue Jays are going to sign a free agent to that length of a contract. I’m not sure they would do that under normal circumstances, but if they would consider such a thing in 2021 I’m sure it would start with their homegrown stars in Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro have always talked about building a sustainable winner, and signing Correa to that kind of deal would make it nearly impossible to pull off other important moves later on unless things significantly changed budget wise.

The Blue Jays also remain very committed to Bo Bichette as their shortstop, and I’m not sure that Correa would be a candidate to move off of his preferred position. He’s an elite defender and it would be a tough sell if he were to land in a Blue Jays’ jersey, but I don’t think we need to bother with that debate.

Don’t get me wrong, I fully expect Correa to have a very busy market this offseason, I just don’t think the Blue Jays will be part of it.

A different reason to pass

I thought about expanding this whole thing beyond three players and possibly even including guys like Anthony Rizzo or Freddie Freeman. However, I didn’t want to venture into territory that is too blatantly obvious, and I think most Jays fans can put together that we won’t be signing a high-end first baseman.

That said, I’m surprised by how many Blue Jays fans seem to think it’s possible that Marcus Stroman could come back to the organization that drafted him, and where he pitched for the first six seasons of his MLB career.

Don’t get me wrong, it’s not that Stroman wouldn’t bring a quality effort on the mound. He was quietly excellent for the Mets in 2021 after sitting out the shortened 60-game schedule in 2020, finishing with a 10-13 record, but posting a 3.02 ERA and a 1.145 WHIP over 33 starts that covered 179.0 innings, good for 3.7 bWAR. It’s just that the bridge has already been burned between the Stro Show and Toronto, even if both parties have been playing a lot nicer lately.

Naturally the front office never came out and said it, but they made it pretty clear that they were ready to move on from Stroman when they traded him in 2019, for whatever reason or reasons there may have been. The right-hander was very vocal about his desire to sign an extension and remain in Toronto with this talented generation of young players, and he was even louder on his way out when the Blue Jays decided against that route and traded him instead.

I’ll admit that on paper that seeking a reunion could make a fair bit of sense. MLBTR has Stroman receiving five years and 110 million with his next contract, which could be a fairly good bet to make. He’s now passed the threshold of 30 years old, but Stroman takes extremely good care of his body, and often documents his workout routines and various efforts to be the best version of his physical self on his social media channels. He’s also a pitcher that relies more on movement than velocity, and those types generally age a lot better than the pure power guys.

However, in baseball there is more to the equation than what you see on paper. For one reason or another the Blue Jays’ relationship with Stroman soured a couple of years ago, and I sincerely doubt that much has changed. I don’t expect that there are many lingering or harboured ill feelings, but it’s pretty hard to imagine the front office is ready to break out the chequebook for a contract of more than 100 million, especially if they weren’t interested when he was two years younger.

While I may have thrown some cold water on three big free agent names and their likelihood to join the Blue Jays, I absolutely expect Ross Atkins and the front office to have an extremely busy offseason. I anticipate that they’ll be connected to many of the biggest stars that free agency has to offer, and likely to the top potential trade candidates as well. I just don’t think we’ll see anything serious when it comes to Correa, Seager, or Stroman. Not this time anyway.