Blue Jays: The free agent stars they won’t be bidding on

BUFFALO, NEW YORK - JULY 18: George Springer #4 of the Toronto Blue Jays hands teammate Hyun Jin Ryu #99 a ball after defeating the Texas Rangers 5-0 in game one of a doubleheader at Sahlen Field on July 18, 2021 in Buffalo, New York. (Photo by Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images)
BUFFALO, NEW YORK - JULY 18: George Springer #4 of the Toronto Blue Jays hands teammate Hyun Jin Ryu #99 a ball after defeating the Texas Rangers 5-0 in game one of a doubleheader at Sahlen Field on July 18, 2021 in Buffalo, New York. (Photo by Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images)
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TORONTO, CANADA – JUNE 13: General manager Ross Atkins of the Toronto Blue Jays during batting practice before the start of MLB game action against the Philadelphia Phillies on June 13, 2016 at Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images)
TORONTO, CANADA – JUNE 13: General manager Ross Atkins of the Toronto Blue Jays during batting practice before the start of MLB game action against the Philadelphia Phillies on June 13, 2016 at Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images) /

The Blue Jays haven’t been afraid to bid on the top free agents over the last few years, but I expect there will be a few they’ll stay away from this time around.

Before you start looking for me on Twitter to tell me how much money their ownership has, or any other reason why you might think I’m wrong, know that for me this isn’t about money. As I look at this year’s crop of free agents, I believe that there are three premium players that the Jays won’t be bidding on, or even really kicking the tires. You might hear the Blue Jays linked to just about everybody, but there are some cases I’ll have an easier time believing than others.

While the Jays have a talented young core that is worth investing in, and the potential funds to make some impact moves, the front office still has to weigh each decision carefully. That’s especially the case with so many in-house stars that will need to be extended over the next few years, and only so much payroll space to go around. While they saw Robbie Ray, Marcus Semien, and Steven Matz become free agents this week, the same could happen a year from now with Jose Berrios, two years from now for Teoscar Hernandez, and even in four years when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette could hit the open market. I fully expect the Blue Jays to increase payroll for 2022, and likely to do the same again the following year, but there will always be a limit.

With that in mind, which players do I see as off limits for the Blue Jays? Allow me to break it down for you on a case by case basis.

Oct 7, 2020; Los Angeles, California, USA; Houston Astros center fielder George Springer (4) is congratulated by shortstop Carlos Correa (1) after scoring during the fifth inning in game three of the 2020 ALDS against the Oakland Athletics at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 7, 2020; Los Angeles, California, USA; Houston Astros center fielder George Springer (4) is congratulated by shortstop Carlos Correa (1) after scoring during the fifth inning in game three of the 2020 ALDS against the Oakland Athletics at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports /

Don’t expect another Houston import

Whenever you can sign a big free agent away from another contender there is always an added degree of satisfaction, and that was exactly the case when the Jays landed former Houston Astros star George Springer last winter. That said, I don’t expect history to repeat itself this offseason.

The Astros may very well lose arguably their most important position player in Carlos Correa, who is now officially a free agent for the first time. There are rumours floating around that his representation is seeking a nine or ten year deal, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see a request in the neighbourhood of 300 million. It remains to be seen how many bidders could be in play at that level, but Correa is an elite player. For what it’s worth, MLBtraderumors.com has him slated for 10 years and 320 million.

While he would be a fantastic fit in the middle infield in Toronto, there’s no way the Blue Jays are going to sign a free agent to that length of a contract. I’m not sure they would do that under normal circumstances, but if they would consider such a thing in 2021 I’m sure it would start with their homegrown stars in Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro have always talked about building a sustainable winner, and signing Correa to that kind of deal would make it nearly impossible to pull off other important moves later on unless things significantly changed budget wise.

The Blue Jays also remain very committed to Bo Bichette as their shortstop, and I’m not sure that Correa would be a candidate to move off of his preferred position. He’s an elite defender and it would be a tough sell if he were to land in a Blue Jays’ jersey, but I don’t think we need to bother with that debate.

Don’t get me wrong, I fully expect Correa to have a very busy market this offseason, I just don’t think the Blue Jays will be part of it.

TORONTO, CANADA – MAY 6: Corey Seager #5 of the Los Angeles Dodgers reacts after striking out in the first inning during MLB game action against the Toronto Blue Jays on May 6, 2016 at Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images)
TORONTO, CANADA – MAY 6: Corey Seager #5 of the Los Angeles Dodgers reacts after striking out in the first inning during MLB game action against the Toronto Blue Jays on May 6, 2016 at Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images) /

A perfect fit, except…

If the Blue Jays could sign one player without any financial repercussions, I think there’s a strong argument that Corey Seager could be at the top of the list, at least for position players. Alas, I don’t see the Blue Jays as serious bidders for the former Los Angeles Dodger star shortstop either.

As for the fit, Seager would be an amazing replacement for Marcus Semien in the event that the veteran signs elsewhere this offseason. The 27 year old slashed .306/.394/.521 with 16 home runs and 57 RBI over just 95 games played this past season. It was unfortunate that he wasn’t able to stay healthy for his entire walk year, but teams around the league know what he’s capable of. He still managed to earn 3.7 bWAR in just over half a season, and he’s twice been over 5 WAR for a single campaign.

As a premium left-handed hitting middle infielder, the North Carolina native would be a nearly perfect fit to help bring some balance to the Blue Jays’ lineup. Seager is also more likely to move off of the position of shortstop than Correa would be, which makes his fit in Toronto a tiny bit better. However, the problem here boils down to a very similar issue to that of Correa, and that’s the size of his next contract.

MLBTR projects Seager to receive just a little bit less than Correa at 10 years and 305 million, and even if I think that’s more than he’ll ultimately settle for, his next contract is going to be out of range for the Blue Jays. More important than the 30+ million per season is the length of the commitment it would require to get Seager in a Blue Jays uniform, and I just can’t see it happening. I truly believe that if the Blue Jays are going to sign a player to a decade-long contract, it’ll be one or both of Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette.

Aug 6, 2021; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Marcus Stroman (0) throws a pitch in the fifth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 6, 2021; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Marcus Stroman (0) throws a pitch in the fifth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports /

A different reason to pass

I thought about expanding this whole thing beyond three players and possibly even including guys like Anthony Rizzo or Freddie Freeman. However, I didn’t want to venture into territory that is too blatantly obvious, and I think most Jays fans can put together that we won’t be signing a high-end first baseman.

That said, I’m surprised by how many Blue Jays fans seem to think it’s possible that Marcus Stroman could come back to the organization that drafted him, and where he pitched for the first six seasons of his MLB career.

Don’t get me wrong, it’s not that Stroman wouldn’t bring a quality effort on the mound. He was quietly excellent for the Mets in 2021 after sitting out the shortened 60-game schedule in 2020, finishing with a 10-13 record, but posting a 3.02 ERA and a 1.145 WHIP over 33 starts that covered 179.0 innings, good for 3.7 bWAR. It’s just that the bridge has already been burned between the Stro Show and Toronto, even if both parties have been playing a lot nicer lately.

Naturally the front office never came out and said it, but they made it pretty clear that they were ready to move on from Stroman when they traded him in 2019, for whatever reason or reasons there may have been. The right-hander was very vocal about his desire to sign an extension and remain in Toronto with this talented generation of young players, and he was even louder on his way out when the Blue Jays decided against that route and traded him instead.

I’ll admit that on paper that seeking a reunion could make a fair bit of sense. MLBTR has Stroman receiving five years and 110 million with his next contract, which could be a fairly good bet to make. He’s now passed the threshold of 30 years old, but Stroman takes extremely good care of his body, and often documents his workout routines and various efforts to be the best version of his physical self on his social media channels. He’s also a pitcher that relies more on movement than velocity, and those types generally age a lot better than the pure power guys.

However, in baseball there is more to the equation than what you see on paper. For one reason or another the Blue Jays’ relationship with Stroman soured a couple of years ago, and I sincerely doubt that much has changed. I don’t expect that there are many lingering or harboured ill feelings, but it’s pretty hard to imagine the front office is ready to break out the chequebook for a contract of more than 100 million, especially if they weren’t interested when he was two years younger.

Next. Blue Jays attend Justin Verlander's showcase. dark

While I may have thrown some cold water on three big free agent names and their likelihood to join the Blue Jays, I absolutely expect Ross Atkins and the front office to have an extremely busy offseason. I anticipate that they’ll be connected to many of the biggest stars that free agency has to offer, and likely to the top potential trade candidates as well. I just don’t think we’ll see anything serious when it comes to Correa, Seager, or Stroman. Not this time anyway.

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