Blue Jays: What’s it going to cost to extend Robbie Ray?

When the Blue Jays acquired Jose Berrios from the Minnesota Twins on Friday, it was a major step forward for the starting rotation. Over the offseason the front office did their best to find another top-tier starting pitcher to join Hyun Jin Ryu at the top of the rotation, and they finally got their man in Berrios. That said, they’ve been fortunate enough to have another elite performance or two from their starters, and one of them is due to be a free agent again at the end of the year.

Things went so well for Robbie Ray during his short stint with the Blue Jays in 2020 that he decided to quickly re-sign on a one year, eight million dollar contract last offseason. It was one of the first free agent contracts agreed to across the league, and it was clear that there was something positive for Ray and the Blue Jays to build on, and hopefully help the 29 year old re-establish himself as the type of arm every team wants on their roster. Ray has been that guy before in his career, especially when he was an NL All-Star in 2017, and felt like he was on the path to rediscovering that form.

So far that’s exactly what we’ve seen from the hard-throwing southpaw in 2021, so much so that there’s an argument that he’s been the staff race. He’s currently 9-5 with a 3.04 ERA and a 1.065 WHIP, also wracking up 150 strikeouts over 118.1 innings. His work with pitching coach Pete Walker has lead to the lowest walk rate of his career, and it’s transformed Ray into a new pitcher.

With that in mind, there’s next to no chance that the Blue Jays will get him back for 2022 and beyond at just eight million per season. But what would it take to sign Ray? There’s a chance that he likes the fit so much that he might give the Jays a slight discount, but this will also be his best chance to cash in as a free agent in the big leagues. At the very least the Jays are going to have to make a competitive offer.

Dallas Keuchel- three years, 55 million

I’m not intentionally choosing southpaws to compare here, but that’s just what the 2019 offseason gave us to work with. To that end, another player that might come up in contract discussions as a comp could be Dallas Keuchel.

Like Bumgarner, Keuchel has a pretty solid resume that includes an AL Cy Young award, but even in 2019 that wasn’t enough to land him more than a three-year deal. Keuchel was a little older at the time at 31 years old, and was 8-8 with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.367 WHIP in 2019 pitching for Atlanta. That season he also signed late while waiting for a multi-year contract, so he only threw 112.2 innings over 19 starts.

What I like about the comp is that Keuchel had a few seasons where he pitched at an ace-calibre level, and others where he wasn’t the same guy. His repertoire is much different than Ray’s, but I feel like their resumes are similar enough that the Jays could point to this type of contract to try and keep Ray to a three-year deal. I doubt it’ll work though,

Hyun Jin Ryu- four years, 80 million

One more southpaw, and why not have a look at how close Ray’s situation is to the one that brought Hyun Jin Ryu to Toronto before the 2020 season?

To be clear, Ryu was on another level at that point of his career, arguably hitting free agency at the perfect time. During the 2019 season with the Dodgers he was an All-Star, and finished 2nd in NL Cy Young voting with a 14-5 record, an NL leading 2.32 ERA, a 1.007 WHIP and 4.8 bWAR over 28 starts and 182.1 innings pitched. That was also coming off a 2018 campaign that saw him post a 1.97 ERA over 15 starts in a season shortened by injury.

There were three things that held Ryu back a bit as a free agent. The first was that he was 32 years old at the time, limited him from ultimately getting more than four years. Secondly, he had a bit of injury history during his time with the Dodgers. Third, he was a free agent at the same time as Gerrit Cole.

Looking at that bWAR stat, Ray’s agent can actually use the Ryu comp without getting laughed out of the room. Ray is on pace to have a better than 5.0 WAR season, and he won’t turn 30 until October, making him two years younger than Ryu was at the time. Yes, he doesn’t have the same resume that Ryu brought to the negotiation table, but there are positives to point to that could even things out more than we think.

Zack Wheeler- five years, 118 million

The last name I’ll point to from the 2019 free agent SP class is Zack Wheeler from the Philadelphia Phillies. Wheeler and his agent hit the jackpot at the time, but I also believe that his situation might be the closest comparison to Ray, and that’s not great news for the Blue Jays’ front office.

Wheeler was 29 at the time that he became a free agent, and like Ray, had a bit of an inconsistent MLB performance to that point. During his walk year he went 11-8 with a 3.96 ERA, 1.259 WHIP, striking out 195 over 195.1 innings, and earning 4.1 bWAR. He was also very good in 2018 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.124 WHIP earning 4.0 bWAR.

With that resume it’s a little strange that Wheeler was able to secure so much more than a guy like Ryu, but this was also a decision of potential for the Phillies. So far it’s paid off as well, as Wheeler received some NL Cy Young votes in 2020, and he leads the NL in both innings pitched and strikeouts in 2021.

Teams looked at Wheeler and saw a hard-throwing and talented starter that had turned a corner, and likely hadn’t reached his ceiling yet. It’s entirely possible that there’s at least one team around the league that’s looking at Ray and seeing the same thing. Unfortunately, all it takes is one team making a huge bid like that, and the Blue Jays might have to think twice about how far they’re willing to go to retain him.

How much will Ray get as a free agent?

This is the part where I’m doing nothing more than taking an educated guess. As I mentioned, Ray’s agent could go as far as pointing to a reasonable comp with Zack Wheeler at the time that he fit free agency, which means he might ask for 5 years and 100 million or more. I don’t think they’ll get that much, but I don’t think it’s impossible either.

As for the Blue Jays, I sincerely believe that they’ll make a legitimate offer to retain Ray. I don’t think they’ll pull out all the stops to bring him back for a second time, but as long as the bidding doesn’t get out of hand then I expect they’ll be a strong suitor. It’s possible they see Jose Berrios as a replacement for Ray in the event that he leaves, but the rotation would be that much more dominant with both of them along with Ryu and Alek Manoah.

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Getting back to my guess, I think Ray will fall short of a five-year deal given his track record, and I believe that will keep the Blue Jays in on the bidding for his services. As for a rate, here’s my official guess, so feel free to bookmark this so you can come back to it in six months and ridicule me.

4 years, 70 million

With an AAV of 17.5 million, that would put Ray right in the same ballpark as the Bumgarner contract, only with one less year. It would actually put him quite close to the contract that Ryu was handed two years ago, but justifiably a little short of the mark. It would be far less than Wheeler was able to get from the Phillies, but I’m not sure we’ll see teams spending like that in free agency this winter, even if the league has been able to play a full season during the Covid-19 pandemic. Crowd sizes have still been mostly reduced, which means profits are down, and there are still the dreaded CBA negotiations to go through as well. As good as Ray has been, none of that will work in his favour.

The more important question is, will the Blue Jays be willing to pay that kind of rate to retain him? Assuming Ray can finish the 2021 campaign the way that he’s performed so far, I believe they will. There are a lot of moving parts, such as extensions for guys like Jose Berrios, or maybe even Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, but Ray and the Blue Jays have been a great match so far, and I’m willing to bet they’ll find a way to keep the relationship going.