Blue Jays: What’s it going to cost to extend Robbie Ray?

When trying to come up with some sort of guess about how much it might take to retain the Tennessee native, the most obvious place to look would be for a comparable performer who has been a free agent in recent years. However, when I looked at last offseason, the closest thing I could find would be Mike Minor, and I believe Ray will far surpass the two years and 18 million that Minor got from the Royals. Last winter wasn’t exactly a great time for contract comparisons either, as most teams were looking to save money after a shortened 2020 schedule, and profit losses for ownership groups.

In pursuit of a better comp, I went back to the 2019 offseason to see if there was a pitcher in a similar situation to Ray when he became a free agent. There are a few comparisons that make some semblance of sense, so I thought I’d break them down, as imperfect as they are.

To begin with, here’s the resume that Ray will take into free agency. He’ll still make another 10-15 starts in 2021 that could affect his value, but he’s having a career year at the right time.

Robbie Ray- 2021

9-5, 3.04 ERA, 1.065 WHIP, 150 K, 118.1 IP, 3.7 bWAR

Career: 58-56, 4.11 ERA, 1.345 WHIP, 12.6 bWAR

Madison Bumgardner- five years, 85 million

Now 32 years old, the comparison between Madison Bumgarner and Robbie Ray isn’t that far off, with the exception of one important factor. Bumgarner had a much better resume that Ray when he hit free agency at 30 years old, including a reputation as one of the best playoff performers of all-time. Even if free agency should be about “what can you do going forward?”, past accomplishments still factor into the equation.

That said, Bumgarner was 9-9 with a 3.90 ERA and a 1.127 WHIP over 30 starts in 2019, so he was pretty solid and proved that he was still durable with 207.2 inning pitched after two straight seasons compromised by injury. That season he was worth 2.6 bWAR, so Ray has already been more valuable through the first 100 or so games for the Blue Jays this season.

Again, Bumgarner’s resume made a big difference here, and I’m sure the Diamondbacks would admit that made an overpay on this one, but don’t be shocked if Ray’s agent uses Bumgarner’s contract as a comp during negotiations.

Dallas Keuchel- three years, 55 million

I’m not intentionally choosing southpaws to compare here, but that’s just what the 2019 offseason gave us to work with. To that end, another player that might come up in contract discussions as a comp could be Dallas Keuchel.

Like Bumgarner, Keuchel has a pretty solid resume that includes an AL Cy Young award, but even in 2019 that wasn’t enough to land him more than a three-year deal. Keuchel was a little older at the time at 31 years old, and was 8-8 with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.367 WHIP in 2019 pitching for Atlanta. That season he also signed late while waiting for a multi-year contract, so he only threw 112.2 innings over 19 starts.

What I like about the comp is that Keuchel had a few seasons where he pitched at an ace-calibre level, and others where he wasn’t the same guy. His repertoire is much different than Ray’s, but I feel like their resumes are similar enough that the Jays could point to this type of contract to try and keep Ray to a three-year deal. I doubt it’ll work though,

Hyun Jin Ryu- four years, 80 million

One more southpaw, and why not have a look at how close Ray’s situation is to the one that brought Hyun Jin Ryu to Toronto before the 2020 season?

To be clear, Ryu was on another level at that point of his career, arguably hitting free agency at the perfect time. During the 2019 season with the Dodgers he was an All-Star, and finished 2nd in NL Cy Young voting with a 14-5 record, an NL leading 2.32 ERA, a 1.007 WHIP and 4.8 bWAR over 28 starts and 182.1 innings pitched. That was also coming off a 2018 campaign that saw him post a 1.97 ERA over 15 starts in a season shortened by injury.

There were three things that held Ryu back a bit as a free agent. The first was that he was 32 years old at the time, limited him from ultimately getting more than four years. Secondly, he had a bit of injury history during his time with the Dodgers. Third, he was a free agent at the same time as Gerrit Cole.

Looking at that bWAR stat, Ray’s agent can actually use the Ryu comp without getting laughed out of the room. Ray is on pace to have a better than 5.0 WAR season, and he won’t turn 30 until October, making him two years younger than Ryu was at the time. Yes, he doesn’t have the same resume that Ryu brought to the negotiation table, but there are positives to point to that could even things out more than we think.

Zack Wheeler- five years, 118 million

The last name I’ll point to from the 2019 free agent SP class is Zack Wheeler from the Philadelphia Phillies. Wheeler and his agent hit the jackpot at the time, but I also believe that his situation might be the closest comparison to Ray, and that’s not great news for the Blue Jays’ front office.

Wheeler was 29 at the time that he became a free agent, and like Ray, had a bit of an inconsistent MLB performance to that point. During his walk year he went 11-8 with a 3.96 ERA, 1.259 WHIP, striking out 195 over 195.1 innings, and earning 4.1 bWAR. He was also very good in 2018 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.124 WHIP earning 4.0 bWAR.

With that resume it’s a little strange that Wheeler was able to secure so much more than a guy like Ryu, but this was also a decision of potential for the Phillies. So far it’s paid off as well, as Wheeler received some NL Cy Young votes in 2020, and he leads the NL in both innings pitched and strikeouts in 2021.

Teams looked at Wheeler and saw a hard-throwing and talented starter that had turned a corner, and likely hadn’t reached his ceiling yet. It’s entirely possible that there’s at least one team around the league that’s looking at Ray and seeing the same thing. Unfortunately, all it takes is one team making a huge bid like that, and the Blue Jays might have to think twice about how far they’re willing to go to retain him.

How much will Ray get as a free agent?

This is the part where I’m doing nothing more than taking an educated guess. As I mentioned, Ray’s agent could go as far as pointing to a reasonable comp with Zack Wheeler at the time that he fit free agency, which means he might ask for 5 years and 100 million or more. I don’t think they’ll get that much, but I don’t think it’s impossible either.

As for the Blue Jays, I sincerely believe that they’ll make a legitimate offer to retain Ray. I don’t think they’ll pull out all the stops to bring him back for a second time, but as long as the bidding doesn’t get out of hand then I expect they’ll be a strong suitor. It’s possible they see Jose Berrios as a replacement for Ray in the event that he leaves, but the rotation would be that much more dominant with both of them along with Ryu and Alek Manoah.

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Getting back to my guess, I think Ray will fall short of a five-year deal given his track record, and I believe that will keep the Blue Jays in on the bidding for his services. As for a rate, here’s my official guess, so feel free to bookmark this so you can come back to it in six months and ridicule me.

4 years, 70 million

With an AAV of 17.5 million, that would put Ray right in the same ballpark as the Bumgarner contract, only with one less year. It would actually put him quite close to the contract that Ryu was handed two years ago, but justifiably a little short of the mark. It would be far less than Wheeler was able to get from the Phillies, but I’m not sure we’ll see teams spending like that in free agency this winter, even if the league has been able to play a full season during the Covid-19 pandemic. Crowd sizes have still been mostly reduced, which means profits are down, and there are still the dreaded CBA negotiations to go through as well. As good as Ray has been, none of that will work in his favour.

The more important question is, will the Blue Jays be willing to pay that kind of rate to retain him? Assuming Ray can finish the 2021 campaign the way that he’s performed so far, I believe they will. There are a lot of moving parts, such as extensions for guys like Jose Berrios, or maybe even Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, but Ray and the Blue Jays have been a great match so far, and I’m willing to bet they’ll find a way to keep the relationship going.