Toronto Blue Jays: Draft Targets 2.0: Position Players

Jud Fabian- OF Florida, #17 On MLB Pipeline

Florida’s Jud Fabian was seen as a potential top 5 pick heading into the 2021 season due to a fantastic COVID shortened year where he put up an outstanding 1.010 OPS, while hitting five home runs in 17 games for the Gators.

Fabian came into the 2021 season hoping to build off the momentum he had gained in the prior year, and firmly establish himself as one of the elite prospects in this year’s draft.  Unfortunately, this did not materialize and the Florida native has fallen down draft boards and is seen as a fringe first round talent now due to a rise in swing and miss, and a drop in contact.

Fabian has always had plenty of swing and miss in his game, striking out in 21% of his at bats during his first two seasons in Gainesville.  The Florida native would see his strikeout percentage jump to a clip of 28% this season, while also seeing his average fall to a career low of .267, after hitting .294 in his sophomore season.

Even though Fabian has struggled to make consistent contact, and has a serious swing and miss problem, the power is definitely there and is why teams still view him as a first-round talent.  Fabian is currently leading all of college baseball with 20 long balls this year in just 50 games, which would put him on pace to hit 64 home runs in a 162 game season.  The power hitting outfielder has also posted a career high 1.016 OPS despite seeing a drop in his batting average, which shows how unreal of a year he’s having from a power perspective.

Fabian has hit 32 career home runs in just 123 college games and will definitely be a long ball threat at the next level if he can simplify his swing and start making more consistent contact.

Along with the raw power he possesses, Fabian is also seen as a plus runner, receiving a 55 grade on MLB Pipeline, which could help him stick in centre field once he turns pro, though most scouts see him patrolling one of the corner outfield spots and becoming an above average defender there.

Jud Fabian is definitely a high risk, high reward prospect.  I wouldn’t necessarily love the selection if the Jays decide to go this route, but if they feel that they can work on Fabian’s swing and miss issues, and the price is right from a signing bonus perspective, then I think he could be an intriguing pick and would immediately become one of the higher upside prospects in the Jays’ farm system.

Joe Mack C Williamsville East (NY) #19 On MLB Pipeline

Even though the Jays have a plethora of young catching talent on both their big league roster and in their farm system, I think that they could still end up selecting a backstop in the first round of this year’s draft.

Drafting by need is never a good idea and teams should be looking to take the best player available and figure out where they are going to fit into their team later on.  The back half of the first round is loaded with catching talent, and Joe Mack may be the most pro ready of that bunch.

The New York native has sound mechanics at the plate, with quick hands and a short swing that leads to a lot of contact, and gives him the “ability to pick up base hits with two strikes”.  Currently, scouts see Mack as someone with good gap power, but he isn’t viewed as a long ball threat at this point in his development.  Mack stands at 6’1” and weighs 210 pounds, so many scouts believe that he will develop more home run power because of his stature as he develops and matures over time.

Defensively, evaluators believe that Mack has the ability to stick behind the dish once he turns pro.  His best tool is undoubtedly his arm, which received a 60 grade on MLB Pipeline and will be his calling card throughout his career.

Mack is also a plus framer and is said to have a high baseball IQ.  All of these traits point to the Clemson commit staying put defensively, once he turns pro, where he has the upside to be a legitimate two way catcher that plays sound defence and can give teams a little bit of production with the bat, which is super hard to come by in this day and age.

Mack is the 19th ranked prospect according to MLB Pipeline, who have the Jays selecting him at pick 19 in their most recent mock draft.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Mack was the pick.  I personally don’t think he has as high a ceiling as some of the other catchers like Harry Ford or Adrian Del Castillo do, but I do believe that Mack has the potential to turn into a quality starting catcher one day, which is something that this team’s current roster lacks at the moment.

Joshua Baez- OF Dexter Southfield (MA), #26 On MLB Pipeline

“There may not be a player in this year’s draft class with more raw pop than Joshua Baez ”.  The Massachusetts native has incredible raw power, which grades out at 60 according to MLB Pipeline.

Baez has a big frame, standing at 6’4” and weighing in at 220 lb, and combines this plus size with elite bat speed to generate a ton of power.  Despite being a bit of an oversized outfielder, Baez is considered to have slightly above average speed, and some scouts think that there is a shot that he can stick in centre field once he turns pro because of this.  If he is unable to, Baez profiles well as a power corner outfielder thanks to his bat and unbelievable arm strength.

While the power that Baez possesses is hard to find, it does come with its flaws.  The young outfielder has plenty of swing and miss in his game, as he tries to “hit the ball 600 feet” every cut he takes.

This all or nothing approach causes Baez to get long in his swing, leaving him vulnerable to high fastball and off-speed pitches out of the zone.  Baez is one of the younger players in this draft class, not turning 18 until late June so there is still plenty of time for him to refine his swing in the minors so he can fully tap into his power potential.

The Massachusetts native is committed to Vanderbilt University, which is a power house program that pumps out high draft picks, so he could potentially be a tough sign and may require an over slot bonus if a team is going to turn him away from college.

Teams are going to love Baez’s raw power, which, barring any contract issues, is why he’s going to be a first round pick.  The swing and miss is concerning, but if the Jays feel that with time he will learn to trust his natural strength and stop trying to crush everything then he has the potential to turn into one of the steals in this draft class.

Christian Franklin- OF Arkansas, #46 On Pipeline

Scouts grade position players on five tools: run, throw, field, hit and power.  A five-tool player is a prospect who projects to have plus abilities in each of those categories, which is very rare to find.  Arkansas’ Christian Franklin has that unique blend of athleticism and strength that are leading many evaluators to label him as a legitimate five-tool prospect, and is the reason why he is quickly becoming one of my favourite college bats in this year’s class.

The Kansas native’s best tool is undoubtedly his speed, where he received a 60 grade run tool from MLB Pipeline.  Franklin combines this elite speed with a great arm that has been clocked in the 90’s from the outfield, making evaluators confident in his ability to not only stick in centre field once he turns pro, but to be able thrive in the position as well.

https://twitter.com/NCAACWS/status/1395026456799944709

Offensively, Franklin has increased his power numbers during his time in Fayetteville, going from a long ball every 33.5 at-bats in his freshman year, to every 16 at-bats this season, with an OPS that jumped from .774 to 1.014 in that time as well.  The Kansas native also has plus bat to ball skills, hitting just over .300 during his career and has been the catalyst to Arkansas offence this season, which is a huge reason why they are currently the number one ranked team in the country at this point in time.

Franklin doesn’t have great size, standing at 5’11” and weighing in at 195 pounds, but is “super twitchy at the plate and has great torque” which allows him to generate great rotational power in his swing, and has led him to being compared to another undersized slugger in Ronald Acuna Jr.

Franklin does have some swing and miss in his game, punching out 56 times in just 48 games this past season.  The swing and miss isn’t as big of a problem as other prospects in this class such as Jud Fabian and Joshua Baez, but is still something to keep in mind when looking at Franklin as a complete player.

Centre field is a huge need for the Jays long term.  Randal Grichuk has been a nice surprise and has been serviceable at the position, but projects better in right field.  George Springer is only going to get older and has never played a full healthy season in centre during his career and will more than likely be forced into a corner outfield/DH role at some point during his contract.

Franklin would immediately become the highest graded outfielder in the Jays’ farm system and would provide a potential heir to centre field once Springer or Grichuk are forced to move off the position.  Even though Franklin is only the 46th prospect on MLB Pipeline’s board, I’ve seen him in a lot of first round mock drafts, so if the Jays want to add Franklin to their farm system, it will have to be with their 19th selection.

I think that Franklin is going to be a prospect that continues to rise during the draft process due to his five-tool potential, and think that pick 19 is a perfectly acceptable spot to take a shot on a prospect with so much upside.