Blue Jays: Way Too Early 2021 Free Agent Targets

The Blue Jays had a productive offseason, bringing in a lot of talent that should raise this team’s ceiling and make them legitimate contenders for a playoff spot.  Even with all the moves that GM Ross Atkins made last winter, this Jays team is still not complete and is an addition or two away from being true championship contenders.  These moves could come at the deadline, but I think that next offseason is where we’re going to see some more heavy lifting done by the front office to complete their master plan.

The Jays went all in on their lineup this winter, adding guys like George Springer and Marcus Semien to a group that was very good last season, even more lethal.  While the additions to the lineup were great, the pitching staff, especially the rotation, was neglected and could potentially hold them back this season.  Robbie Ray, Steven Matz and Tanner Roark are all set to be free agents next offseason, leaving three rotation spots to fill.

Next winter could be a great opportunity to not just bring in depth arms to raise the floor of the rotation, but could be a chance to bring in an impact arm that can pitch at the top of the rotation and win a playoff game.  The Jays could also add another impact position player, going all in on the lineup.

Obviously we still have an entire season to play before free agency, so the team’s needs are going to change based on performances this season.  These are the five players who I think the Blue Jays are going to have the most interest in during the next offseason, based on the roster right now and their current needs.

Eduardo Rodriguez

This next name should be a familiar one to Jays fans in Eduardo Rodriguez.  Rodriguez, a left-handed pitcher for the Red Sox was acquired from Baltimore at the 2014 trade deadline in exchange for Andrew Miller.  He debuted in 2015 and has been a reliable arm for the Sox, posting a 113 ERA+ across five seasons.

Rodriguez won’t blow you away with velocity, as his fastball sits right around 93 MPH, but he gets guys out by simply eliminating hard contact, finishing in the 96 percentile in exit velocity allowed back in 2019 according to StatCast.

His best season came back in 2019 where he went 19-6 with a 3.85 ERA and ended up finishing 6th in AL Cy Young voting.  Unfortunately, Rodriguez was hit hard by Covid, as he was diagnosed with myocarditis, which is an inflammation of the heart caused by a viral infection, which in Rodriguez’s case was caused by Covid.

Rodriguez missed the entirety of the 2020 season and was at risk of never pitching again due to his condition.  Thankfully, he’s fully recovered and looking like he will be able to start the 2021 season with the Sox.

At just 26 years old, it’s reasonable to assume that Rodriguez could continue to develop and improve his game over the next couple of seasons.  Combining his age with his prior success in the AL East, Eduardo Rodriguez is definitely someone the Jays should be interested in if he hits the open market next winter.

Zach Davies

Another arm? Like I said earlier, the Jays primary focus next offseason should be on the rotation and Zach Davies is another quality pitcher who has had some excellent seasons over the course of his career.

Davies, a 26th round selection by the Orioles back in 2011 has turned into a late round steal, posting a really nice 3.79 ERA over six seasons in the majors.  Davies has consistently gotten better over the course of his career watching his ERA decline every year except in 2017.  He had his most productive season last year with the Padres, posting career bests in ERA, WHIP and K/9.

Davies recent success can be thanks to an increase in his change-up usage.  He saw a 10% increase in changeups thrown last season going from 31% to 41%.  This allowed him to throw less fastballs as well, dropping his usage from 53% in 2019 to 42% in 2020.

Davies does not throw hard, with his fastball sitting in the upper 80’s, so using his change-up more and his fastball less seemed to keep hitters off balance, making him more effective.  We’ve seen a number of soft tossers succeed in the AL East with recent examples being Marco Estrada and Hyun Jin Ryu.  I think that Davies could be really effective against teams like the Yankees or Rays who have a ton of power bats and love to hit fastballs.

Davies was recently dealt to the Cubs as part of the return for Yu Darvish.  It will be interesting to see if he can continue to have success with his new team and if he can, there’s going to be a lot of interest in the righty next offseason, and the Jays should be a team in the mix for him.

Francisco Lindor

Francisco Lindor is a name that was tied to the Blue Jays a lot last offseason, and I think he will continue to be linked to the club until he signs a new contract, whether it be with the Mets or someone else.  The fit makes sense for both sides.  Lindor is familiar with Blue Jays management from their time together in Cleveland and he’s not from the United States, so should have less ties to the country preventing him from signing outside of it.

The fit for the Jays is that Lindor is one of the best players in baseball and you add those whenever you have the chance to.  Unlike last offseason, Lindor will be a free agent next winter so the Jays will only have to give up money to bring him in and not prospect capital.  Considering they were interested in acquiring the four time All-Star last offseason, I think it’s safe to say that their interest will remain the same if he does wind up a free agent.

Now I am a believer in Bo Bichette, and I think he has the tools to develop into an adequate shortstop or better.  Lindor may be the only player in baseball that I would be willing to move Bichette off of short for, due to his age, and abilities with both the glove and bat.  Bringing in Lindor would give the Jays an elite defender at shortstop and someone who’s a legit threat at the plate who can hit from both sides.

You would have to pay a pretty penny to get Lindor, which would presumably take you out of the pitching market, but bringing him in may make someone like Cavan Biggio more expendable and could make him part of a trade for a player like Luis Castillo.

The Jays should be interested in adding good baseball players and Lindor is just that.  Even though shortstop isn’t a huge need for the club at the moment , if the opportunity arises to sign Lindor, you don’t think twice about it and figure out where everyone plays later.

Clayton Kershaw

Could Clayton Kershaw’s time in LA really almost be up?  Before the Dodgers handed over 40 mill a year to Trevor Bauer I would have said no, but now, I think there is a real shot that Kershaw could be looking for a new home next offseason.

The Dodgers are well over the competitive tax threshold and have been for the past three seasons.  The tax is just going to keep growing for them, so I can see them not wanting to spend too much more money.  They also have a couple of big contracts looming with guys like Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger and Walker Buehler on the verge of needing new deals.

Kershaw could become a financial casualty because of this and be forced to leave LA, taking his talents elsewhere.  If Kershaw does end up hitting the open market, it should be a no brainer for the Jays to pursue him.

Kershaw is not only one of the best pitchers of this generation, he’s one of the best pitchers in baseball history.  The Texas native has had a historic 13 year career, posting a 2.43 ERA, a K/9 ration just shy of 10 and has won three Cy Young awards along the way.  Along with having fantastic stuff, Kershaw is also a work horse, tossing 200+ innings 5 times in his career.

Now Kershaw’s age could be a cause for concern as he’s going to be 33 when he hits free agency, but he has already lost some velocity on his fastball from early in his career and was still dominant, so I think he’s a guy who is going to continue to age well.  Kershaw has lived in Texas and California his whole life so I don’t know how much desire there would be to come to Canada on his part.  Regardless of this, the Jays should still make Kershaw one of their top priorities if he hits free agency next winter as he would immensely improve the rotation.