Blue Jays: Way Too Early 2021 Free Agent Targets

Noah Syndergaard

The Mets may find themselves in some financial trouble next offseason.  New owner Steve Cohen has stated that he doesn’t want to surpass the competitive balance tax threshold.  The Mets are just 25 million dollars under that mark and have multiple players hitting free agency next offseason that will need substantial contracts like Michael Conforto , Francisco Lindor, Marcus Stroman and Noah Syndergaard.

If the Mets are as determined as they say they are to stay under the luxury tax, they may have to make a tough design on one or two of these players.  Because of this, Syndergaard may be on his way out of Queens next winter, and if this materializes, the Jays should be heavily interested in bringing back their once prized prospect.

Syndergaard has been a fantastic pitcher over the course of his career, posting a 3.31 ERA over his six years in the bigs.  He utilizes his power fastball, that regularly touches 100 mph, to rack up a large amount of strikeouts, posting a 9.7 K/9 ratio during his time with the Mets.

Syndergaard has been bitten by the injury bug a couple of times, missing most of the 2017 season due to bicep tendonitis and then missing all of last season while recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Syndergaard is still currently on the 60 day IL, but is hoping to return by mid-season.  If he can get a half season under his belt and show he’s healthy, his stock should rise heading into next winter and make him one of the more intriguing bounce back candidates on the market.

Syndergaard is only 27 years old and with the swing and miss stuff he possesses, I’d be willing to take a chance on him if he can show that he is healthy during the second half of the season.  If he’s healthy, bringing in Syndergaard could create a scary one, two punch with Hyun Jin Ryu and be really tough for an opposing team in a playoff series.

Mock Contract- 1 year 15 mil

Eduardo Rodriguez

This next name should be a familiar one to Jays fans in Eduardo Rodriguez.  Rodriguez, a left-handed pitcher for the Red Sox was acquired from Baltimore at the 2014 trade deadline in exchange for Andrew Miller.  He debuted in 2015 and has been a reliable arm for the Sox, posting a 113 ERA+ across five seasons.

Rodriguez won’t blow you away with velocity, as his fastball sits right around 93 MPH, but he gets guys out by simply eliminating hard contact, finishing in the 96 percentile in exit velocity allowed back in 2019 according to StatCast.

His best season came back in 2019 where he went 19-6 with a 3.85 ERA and ended up finishing 6th in AL Cy Young voting.  Unfortunately, Rodriguez was hit hard by Covid, as he was diagnosed with myocarditis, which is an inflammation of the heart caused by a viral infection, which in Rodriguez’s case was caused by Covid.

Rodriguez missed the entirety of the 2020 season and was at risk of never pitching again due to his condition.  Thankfully, he’s fully recovered and looking like he will be able to start the 2021 season with the Sox.

At just 26 years old, it’s reasonable to assume that Rodriguez could continue to develop and improve his game over the next couple of seasons.  Combining his age with his prior success in the AL East, Eduardo Rodriguez is definitely someone the Jays should be interested in if he hits the open market next winter.

Zach Davies

Another arm? Like I said earlier, the Jays primary focus next offseason should be on the rotation and Zach Davies is another quality pitcher who has had some excellent seasons over the course of his career.

Davies, a 26th round selection by the Orioles back in 2011 has turned into a late round steal, posting a really nice 3.79 ERA over six seasons in the majors.  Davies has consistently gotten better over the course of his career watching his ERA decline every year except in 2017.  He had his most productive season last year with the Padres, posting career bests in ERA, WHIP and K/9.

Davies recent success can be thanks to an increase in his change-up usage.  He saw a 10% increase in changeups thrown last season going from 31% to 41%.  This allowed him to throw less fastballs as well, dropping his usage from 53% in 2019 to 42% in 2020.

Davies does not throw hard, with his fastball sitting in the upper 80’s, so using his change-up more and his fastball less seemed to keep hitters off balance, making him more effective.  We’ve seen a number of soft tossers succeed in the AL East with recent examples being Marco Estrada and Hyun Jin Ryu.  I think that Davies could be really effective against teams like the Yankees or Rays who have a ton of power bats and love to hit fastballs.

Davies was recently dealt to the Cubs as part of the return for Yu Darvish.  It will be interesting to see if he can continue to have success with his new team and if he can, there’s going to be a lot of interest in the righty next offseason, and the Jays should be a team in the mix for him.

Francisco Lindor

Francisco Lindor is a name that was tied to the Blue Jays a lot last offseason, and I think he will continue to be linked to the club until he signs a new contract, whether it be with the Mets or someone else.  The fit makes sense for both sides.  Lindor is familiar with Blue Jays management from their time together in Cleveland and he’s not from the United States, so should have less ties to the country preventing him from signing outside of it.

The fit for the Jays is that Lindor is one of the best players in baseball and you add those whenever you have the chance to.  Unlike last offseason, Lindor will be a free agent next winter so the Jays will only have to give up money to bring him in and not prospect capital.  Considering they were interested in acquiring the four time All-Star last offseason, I think it’s safe to say that their interest will remain the same if he does wind up a free agent.

Now I am a believer in Bo Bichette, and I think he has the tools to develop into an adequate shortstop or better.  Lindor may be the only player in baseball that I would be willing to move Bichette off of short for, due to his age, and abilities with both the glove and bat.  Bringing in Lindor would give the Jays an elite defender at shortstop and someone who’s a legit threat at the plate who can hit from both sides.

You would have to pay a pretty penny to get Lindor, which would presumably take you out of the pitching market, but bringing him in may make someone like Cavan Biggio more expendable and could make him part of a trade for a player like Luis Castillo.

The Jays should be interested in adding good baseball players and Lindor is just that.  Even though shortstop isn’t a huge need for the club at the moment , if the opportunity arises to sign Lindor, you don’t think twice about it and figure out where everyone plays later.

Clayton Kershaw

Could Clayton Kershaw’s time in LA really almost be up?  Before the Dodgers handed over 40 mill a year to Trevor Bauer I would have said no, but now, I think there is a real shot that Kershaw could be looking for a new home next offseason.

The Dodgers are well over the competitive tax threshold and have been for the past three seasons.  The tax is just going to keep growing for them, so I can see them not wanting to spend too much more money.  They also have a couple of big contracts looming with guys like Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger and Walker Buehler on the verge of needing new deals.

Kershaw could become a financial casualty because of this and be forced to leave LA, taking his talents elsewhere.  If Kershaw does end up hitting the open market, it should be a no brainer for the Jays to pursue him.

Kershaw is not only one of the best pitchers of this generation, he’s one of the best pitchers in baseball history.  The Texas native has had a historic 13 year career, posting a 2.43 ERA, a K/9 ration just shy of 10 and has won three Cy Young awards along the way.  Along with having fantastic stuff, Kershaw is also a work horse, tossing 200+ innings 5 times in his career.

Now Kershaw’s age could be a cause for concern as he’s going to be 33 when he hits free agency, but he has already lost some velocity on his fastball from early in his career and was still dominant, so I think he’s a guy who is going to continue to age well.  Kershaw has lived in Texas and California his whole life so I don’t know how much desire there would be to come to Canada on his part.  Regardless of this, the Jays should still make Kershaw one of their top priorities if he hits free agency next winter as he would immensely improve the rotation.