Blue Jays: Potential is high for prospects to crack roster in 2020

The Toronto Blue Jays boast a strong farm system, and some of the organizations top prospects could find themselves making the active roster if they perform well this spring training.

The 2020 season will be an opportunity to improve for the Toronto Blue Jays in terms of rebuilding management, as the active rosters will expand to 26 players to begin the season. That means that the Blue Jays have the advantage of adding another prospect from within the system to the major leagues, whether it be in the bullpen, in a 6 man starting rotation, or on the bench.

The Toronto Blue Jays are smack dab in the rebuild, and this season will be another trying year where prospects will continue to navigate the MLB waters. The core will still continue to develop and take shape, and the hope will be that a playoff-bound competitive team will form when the rebuild fog lifts within the next 2-4 years. It will be a difficult time, and the team will slowly keep improving year after year if the rebuild goes according to plan, spitting out a playoff-ready team destined for World Series glory.

Depending on where the Blue Jays choose to use their extra roster spot, this leverage allows for another potential prospect to shine on the major league stage in order to facilitate the rebuild.

There are multiple players who are out of options and need to find space on the roster in order to avoid the waiver wire.

There are also a slew of players who are trying to get their foot in the door, hoping that one shot on the major league roster could be their ticket out of the minor league system.

Regardless of what the Blue Jays choose to do, this next spring training is going to be a war-zone for ‘bubble’ players; those who haven’t cemented their spot on the active roster just yet. If they stumble out of the gate in spring training, they could see themselves riding the bus down to Buffalo, where they will patiently have to wait for their phone to ring for another opportunity to show what they are capable of under the bright lights of the Rogers Centre.

A strong spring can avoid the bus ride altogether, with the added incentive to keep on producing or risk being demoted back to Bison country.

Outfield

As it stands right now, the Toronto Blue Jays possess two outfielders in Randal Grichuk and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. who are most likely going to be starting on opening day.

There have been talks of Gurriel Jr. possibly moving back to the infield or in a utility role, and even rumours and rumblings about him being possibly traded (which I disagree with unless the return is an established, prime starting pitcher), but I personally see him staying in left field. His arm was a lot more accurate in left field than it was at second, and it just seems like he is mentally more sound in the outfield.

General manager Ross Atkins was critical this season of center field, and stated that the Blue Jays could look outside the organization in order to improve the defence in this area. There are some free agent outfielders on the market who could satisfy this need, like Nicholas Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna, but most of the premium outfielder free agents play in the corners (Ozuna has some experience in CF, but not since 2017). This would require someone to move, whether it be the newly acquired player, or someone already on the roster.

They also could explore international free agents like Yoshitomo Tsutsugo or Shogo Akiyama, but both players are not regarded for their defence, as well as Tsutsugo being regarded as a corner outfielder rather than in center field.

There is no guarantee that the Blue Jays will sign any free agent outfielders this off-season, and if that were the case, there will be a slew of internal outfield prospects who are looking to break away from the minor league system and finally establish themselves on the roster once and for all.

So, under this scenario, there would be essentially 3-4 spots open on Blue Jays roster for the outfield: one for the center fielder, and 2-3 extras on the bench.

Teoscar Hernandez, the Blue Jays center fielder last season, was inconsistent at the plate for most of the season but has shown he can hit the home run ball when he is riding his hot streaks. His major qualm comes in the form of his defensive abilities, with his awkward routes to fly balls and his average arm, which almost makes it seem like he is uncomfortable every time the ball is hit in his direction. He does have a minor league option if the Blue Jays feel like a demotion is needed.

If Hernandez was an average fielder, the job would most likely be his for next season, but there are prospects who are barking up the depth ladder looking to replace him and send him to the bench.

Derek Fisher, Billy McKinney, Anthony Alford, and Jonathan Davis all have one thing in common: they are always on the cusp of being a starter, but just haven’t found the consistency to stay there.

Out of this group, both Fisher and Alford are out of options this upcoming season and need to make the roster or be exposed to the waiver wire. I honestly think that this could be a major contributor to keeping them from being sent down to the minor leagues, in that management would not want to expose these two to the rest of the league. If they were exposed, I could see other teams taking a flyer on either one of these two players.

This would leave the last remaining spot(s) between Hernandez, McKinney, and Davis, all of whom possess minor league options for next season.

I would keep Hernandez on the roster solely for his bat, in that he did crank out 26 home runs for the club last year, placing him second on the team. The issue is with his consistency, in that he goes on these random tangents where he can’t seem to hit a beach ball and then turns around and hits 3-5 home runs in a 5 game span. He did improve his eye at the plate and swung less at pitches over his shoulders and the curveball in the dirt, but the bat just isn’t strong enough to justify his poor defence. He would be more suited for the pinch hitter or part-time designated hitter role on the bench in my opinion.

McKinney did find himself heading down to Buffalo twice last year (mostly because of his options), and when he was up in Toronto, he didn’t really separate himself from amongst the other outfielders. He is a better defensive outfielder than Hernandez, but doesn’t separate him from the rest of the group. If he could bring his average up just a bit more and does have a strong spring, I could see McKinney on the bench to begin the season. It also helps that he is a left-handed bat as well, something the Blue Jays outfield would be missing if he is in Buffalo to begin the season.

Davis is the bigger long-shot of the three, but he did have some bright moments last season. He did get a call-up to the big league squad not just during the expanded roster months of September, and was the better defensive-minded outfielder of the three players mentioned. The issue is with his bat, where he just has trouble putting the ball in play, which is seen through his rough slugging percentage and .181 batting average. He is probably the weakest batter of the four potential bench options.

There is another intriguing option in the depths of the minor leagues in Forrest Wall, one of the two players the Blue Jays acquired in the trade with the Colorado Rockies for relief pitcher Seunghwan Oh. While he is not on the 40 man roster, if a combination of the aforementioned players struggles in spring training and Wall can find a groove right out of the gate, one could argue he deserves a chance on the MLB roster. He has options and could return to the MiLB whenever management pleases, and the rebuild does provide a great opportunity for players like Wall to show what they are made of. A long shot, but a shot none the less.

In the end, I see an outfield with Gurriel Jr., Grichuk, Alford, Fisher, McKinney, and Hernandez, with Davis waiting patiently in AAA for the next opportunity. Fisher and Alford will tandem in center field, and Hernandez will fill in as a designated hitter and in the outfield as a pinch hitter/runner deeper into ball games.

Infield

While some pieces of the Toronto Blue Jays infield are set in stone, there are a few question marks regarding where some players will end up when spring training comes to a close.

As it sits right now, the Blue Jays are committed to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at third base and Bo Bichette is entrenched at shortstop and not going anywhere.

The questions align more along the right side of the infield at second and first base.

There have always been rumours and talks of Cavan Biggio being utilized as more of a utility type player in the outfield, first base, and in the infield. I personally think that Biggio needs to be given some more reps at second, in that he did have a successful first season both at the plate and in the field.

He was an on-base machine, leading all rookies in the MLB in terms of walks, and while he wasn’t an elite defender at second base, he was still consistent at the position and stands to improve with some more time at the position. I want to see him stay at this position for the foreseeable future and see if the defensive ability can go from average to above average.

The next question mark lies at first base, with veteran Justin Smoak potentially not returning this next season via free agency. Rowdy Tellez will obviously be given some time at the corner, a second audition if you will, but the jury is still out as to whether he will be there for the long run. While he does have the making to be a DH with his raw power and improving ability to hit left-handed pitching, his defence is nothing to boast about at first.

Blue Jays fans have been a bit spoiled with Smoak’s gold glove nominated ability at first base, and the team may look both internally and externally for someone to fill his void.

Internally, the team did experiment with Brandon Drury and Biggio at first base, and could look to this route once again combined with Tellez being a 1B/DH.

There are some options via free agency in Eric Thames and Howie Kendrick, but these players would go against the ‘rebuild’ mold that Ross Atkins has been going for these past few seasons. There is the potential in signing Japanese slugger in Yoshitomo Tsutsugo to play 1B, but he does not have a lot of experience at this position during his time in the Nippon Professional Baseball league.

Ross Atkins could look to bring these players in, but to be honest, if management is looking to go the free-agent route, there is a strong argument to just bring back Smoak. A switch-hitting veteran who already knows the ins and outs of the organization, and has generated respect amongst the young core of players in the Blue Jays clubhouse.

Rounding out the roster would be the bench positions, where there could potentially be 3-4 spots given the additional roster spot and how the Blue Jays choose to fill out their roster (we won’t include the backup catcher, where we will most likely see a Reese McGuire/Danny Jansen tandem all season).

Drury will see his name penciled into the bench role, where he was utilized across the diamond last season.

I can easily see an Eric Sogard type scenario where the Blue Jays bring in some veteran players on minor league tryouts to compete for spots on the bench. One player may have a tremendous spring that translates into a strong season, benefitting the club for the year.

This leaves a few spots open to players like Richard Urena and Breyvic Valera, who spent some time with the Blue Jays last season, as well as the potential for prospects like Santiago Espinal, Kevin Smith, and Logan Warmoth to find some space to make a run for the roster bench.

Espinal does have some experience at the AAA level, while Smith and Warmoth have not advanced past AA. This doesn’t mean that the two latter players are not going to make the team out of spring training, many players have jumped from AA to The Show, it just means that they will have to outwork other MLB experienced players for a spot. A strong spring can change a lot in the eyes of management, and a rebuilding team is the perfect opportunity for young players to show what they are capable of.

If they have a strong spring, management can still send them down to develop in the minor league system, so there is no harm and no foul moving forward. It may be a big overcast to throw minor league players like this in the fire, and management will most likely be cautious in their approach and let them continue to develop for a few more years.

Espinal does also have to prove his worth this off-season, considering he is not on the 40 man roster and might not even be able to compete for a roster spot if he is picked up during the Rule 5 Draft this year. He can still be added to the 40-man before the draft takes place, but these decisions have not been made as of yet.

To conclude this section, I can see the bench being fulfilled with the backup catcher, Drury, a FA for 1B (Smoak for example), Urena, and then Espinal, who I am really rooting for to have a strong spring and cement a spot on the roster.

Espinal, if he is indeed on the roster and is not scooped up in the Rule 5 draft or is protected on the 40 man roster, could lose his spot if a veteran player on a minor-league tryout has a successful spring, but that’s something we cannot predict this early in the offseason.

Bullpen

This section is arguably the biggest crapshoot in terms of predicting who will be on the active roster when it comes to the bullpen.

Last season, the Blue Jays had a solid closer in Ken Giles, whose name is once again lighting the trade rumour radar this off-season. There is an argument for both sides on whether or not to trade Giles given the free-agent reliever market this season, but I think Giles would be better off in a Blue Jays uniform moving forward, with a possible extension in the near future.

His veteran leadership in the bullpen could be a benefit that the organization currently lacks on the active roster, and should remain a Blue Jay unless any potential deal is extremely in the team’s favour. Giles does become a free agent after the 2020 season, so I could see management send him packing halfway through the 2020 season to gain some controllable prospects. Time will tell.

After Giles, there is really no guarantee to who makes the squad once spring training comes to an end.

Tim Mayza will most likely be on the shelf for all of next season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2019, so he will not be a part of the plans for 2020. Elvis Luciano has satisfied his Rule 5 requirements during the previous season and will go back down to the minor leagues in order to keep developing.

As it stands this off-season, pitchers Jason Adam, Sam Gaviglio, Wilmer Font, Derek Law, Thomas Pannone, Jordan Romano, and Justin Shafer spent time with the Blue Jays last season and will be fighting for time in the bullpen once again.

Newcomer Anthony Bass will also be thrust into the mix as well, and could potentially find himself in the bullpen given the strong 2019 season he had.

There are some options down in the minor leagues as well, with potential prospects Travis Bergen, Zach Jackson, Yennsy Diaz, Kirby Snead, and Ty Tice coming into spring training with an opportunity to impress and move towards a spot on the roster (Diaz pitched one game last season in the MLB, and it was terrible).

They will obviously have a more difficult path to the show, but injuries and a strong spring performance can push and pull pitchers up and down the depth charts. Out of these prospects, I could see Jackson and Bergen making a strong case to make the bullpen to start the season, but they need to have a strong spring in order to present their case to management.

Snead and Jackson are currently not on the 40 man roster and are eligible for the Rule 5 Draft, so both of these players may not have the opportunity to compete for a spot come spring training if selected during the draft. They may get added to the roster, but these decisions have not been decided this early into the off-season.

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You can also expect management to bring in veteran pitchers on minor league tryouts to increase competition within the organization and attempt to fill out their bullpen. They have done this the past few seasons and have been successful in their endeavors.

If I had to make a guess, I would say that Gaviglio and Pannone will make the team due to their ability to pitch more innings as former starters, as well as newcomer Bass, Law and Font due to being out of options and how they performed last season. Giles is obviously going to make the squad and be the de-facto closer.

While they may be out of options, these players are by no means untouchable in terms of being dropped to the minor leagues (and exposed to waivers) or being released and could find themselves on a new team come April.

There is honestly no real prediction that can be made as to who will be in the bullpen this off-season, and I am sure the year to year comparison will see quite a few new faces in the left field of the Rogers Centre come Opening Day.