Blue Jays: Could The Manny Machado Signing Help The Jays?

The Padres gave Manny Machado the $300 million he was holding out for.  Does this create an opportunity for the Blue Jays?

Opinions are mixed on whether the Padres’ signing of Manny Machado was a wise move.  $300 million is a lot of money … but Manny is a lot of ballplayer.

But with that signing all but done, and any crazy talk of the Jays signing Machado now behind us, the question for die-hard Jays fans is now this:  can the Manny signing work to Toronto’s advantage?

One way that the Machado acquisition could help the Jays could be if the Pads were to re-engage on Stroman.  My colleague Travis beat me to that idea.  But there is another way for Toronto to benefit.

The Padres’ game plan in signing Machado seems clear.  They have the top rated farm system in all of baseball, with a boatload of cheap young talent at or near major-league ready.  They can afford to pay him $30m per season, if they are paying Fernando Tatis Jr, MacKenzie Gore, and Luis Urias the major-league minimum. Or can they?

Toronto Blue Jays

The Pads extended Wil Myers for 6 years and $83 million in January of 2017.  The deal was heavily back-end loaded, with a $2 million salary in 2017 and 2018, $3m in 2019, and $20 million in 2020, 2021 and 2022.  Add Machado’s $30m/year and Eric Hosmer‘s $21m/year to that, and San Diego will be paying over $70 million to just those three players from 2020-2022.  Not exactly chicken feed for a team whose total 2018 payroll was $103 million, itself a significant increase from 2017’s $78 million.

It would clearly be to the Padres’ advantage to trade one of Hosmer or Myers to free up salary room for the other pieces the Pads will need to become contenders.  Problem is, neither Myers nor Hosmer have been performing at a level commensurate with their salaries.

Now, the Padres could pull a Tulo and trade one or both of these players while retaining the bulk of their salary commitment.  But that is inconsistent with the objective of freeing up salary room.  The alternative would be to pull a Liriano, trading one of those players to a team who accepts the full salary commitment … by adding a prospect or two.

Hosmer has a full no-trade for 2019 and 2020, so let’s talk about Myers.  He has been a slightly above-average hitter (with Steamer projecting a 107 wRC+ in 2019) and a decent (+3 DRS/1200) first baseman through much of his career.  But over his last two seasons, he has put up a 93 wRC+ at home in Petco Park as compared to a 120 on the road.  Might he do better playing in a hitter’s park … or better yet, playing most of his games in a hitter’s park-loaded division?

And second, Myers has been used primarily as a first baseman (2812 innings).  He is an average-ish defensive 1B, with a +3 DRS/1200 and a career UZR/150 of -0.4.  But he also has over 2000 innings in the outfield.  He is a poor right fielder (arm) and centre fielder (arm and range), but he has a career +15 DRS/1200 and 18.5 UZR/150 in 300 innings in left field.

So suppose that in the AL East that Myers could hit for a 120 wRC+.  And suppose that he could average a +9 UZR/150 playing exclusively left field, half of what he has done in the past (in an admittedly small sample size).  Add in Myers’ above-average baserunning and you are talking a potential 3-4 WAR player.

So let’s see … can you think of a team that (a) has some payroll space, (b) could use a (potentially)  above-average power-hitting left fielder who can actually field his position and who can play first in a pinch, and (c) might be interested in a pitching prospect like a Cal Quantrill or Anderson Espinoza (neither one in San Diego’s top 10 prospects) as part of a deal?

I know that I can.