Toronto Blue Jays: Looking at Rotation Trade Value

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ANAHEIM, CA – SEPTEMBER 14: Matt Shoemaker #52 of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim pitches to the Seattle Mariners in the first inning at Angel Stadium on September 14, 2018 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images) /

Toronto Blue Jays management has positioned themselves well for trades this year by signing two low-risk starting pitchers this off-season. Through the acquisition of Clayton Richter and Matt Shoemaker, the Toronto Blue Jays have filled out a rotation that looked thin on reliable veteran arms just a few months ago while giving neither a long-term deal.

It’s very likely that the starting rotation we see for the Blue Jays in April will not be the same come September, as Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins attempt to deal away contracts that do not fit with their current timeline for valuable prospects to reinforce future rosters. We saw it happen last year with the expiring contract of J.A. Happ, and with the eventual DFA of Jaime Garcia, who had an option for the 2019 season, even if he was atrocious last year in Toronto.

Trade talk for veteran Blue Jays pitchers Marcus Stroman, and Aaron Sanchez have been ongoing this off-season, with Ben Nicholson-Smith reporting that discussions have even gone beyond the two talented Blue Jays pitchers. It’s doubtful that was in regards to other starters, as most of them are young and relatively inexperienced, but it could easily have included other relievers like Ken Giles, Ryan Tepera, or possibly others.

As these trade talks continue for Blue Jays this winter and into the season, we will take a look at what each of the pitcher’s trade potential might be. Our first two starters both have the potential to be dealt at some point this season, but one has a higher likelihood than the other:

BOSTON, MA – SEPTEMBER 12: Aaron Sanchez #41 of the Toronto Blue Jays pitches against the Boston Red Sox during the first inning at Fenway Park on September 12, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts.(Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) /

Aaron Sanchez (26) RHP

Trade Potential: MODERATE

Contact: 3.9 Million (Free Agent 2021)

2018: 4-6, 4.89ERA in 105IP, 0.8WAR

I recently wrote about how we shouldn’t give up on Aaron Sanchez just yet, and I am anticipating a strong return to form in 2019. Being a pitcher on a shorter contract on a non-contending team, Sanchez has the chance at pitching really well this year and being traded to a playoff bound team.

However, is there a scenario where Sanchez can pitch poorly and also get traded?

If Aaron Sanchez were to develop blister issues again in 2019, it could be the start of the end for his time in Toronto. In a drastic last-ditch attempt to recoup any value for Sanchez, the Blue Jays may consider moving him to the bullpen to limit his pitch count and the wear and tear on his pitching fingers. I can only see this scenario happening much later into the season after exhausting all other options, as Sanchez has far more value as a starter than a reliever.

Although if another season was to be on the brink of being lost, and with only one more season under contract, it is possible that in a worst-case scenario Blue Jays management could make the call to move the talented 26-year-old to the bullpen, and subsequently trade him if he finds success.

Is there a player on the #BlueJays with a more important 2018-19 season than Aaron Sanchez? pic.twitter.com/W3kYgmwBIQ
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) September 12, 2018

Matt Shoemaker(32) RHP

Trade Potential: HIGH

Contract: 3.5 Million (Free Agent 2021)

2018: 2-2, 4.94ERA in 31IP, 0.1WAR

Matt Shoemaker has had an injury-riddled few years with right forearm strains limiting him to 21 starts over the past two seasons. If he can return to the pitcher he was earlier in his career, he could absolutely end up in trade talks as his contract is a modest 3.5 million in 2019, with a club option for 2020.

Between the 2014-16 seasons, Shoemaker averaged a 3.79ERA over 143 innings pitched, and has a career 5.9 WAR. Shoemaker returning to form in 2019 would make it very easy for Blue Jays management to trade him to a contending team for prospects, with the Blue Jays having rookie pitchers waiting who could take over his rotation spot in Sean Reid-Foley, Sam Gaviglio, and Trent Thornton. If Matt Shoemaker can stay healthy and off the DL in 2019, he is very likely to be traded.

ANAHEIM, CA – JUNE 23: Marcus Stroman #6 of the Toronto Blue Jays pitches during the first inning of a game against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim at Angel Stadium on June 23, 2018 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images) /

Marcus Stroman (27) RHP

Trade Potential: MODERATE

Contract: 7.4 Million (Free Agent 2021)

2018: 4-9, 5.54ERA in 102.1IP, 0.2WAR

Marcus Stroman’s trade potential would be in the moderate range, as there have already been discussions between the Blue Jays and other teams regarding the talented thrower. The main issue stems from the Blue Jays valuing Stroman more than other teams, and that is a good thing in my opinion.

Marcus only being 27 leaves him squarely in the future window of contention the Blue Jays have planned, and he also has experience in big games having pitched in 30.2 postseason innings with a 4.40ERA. At 27, Stroman already has more postseason innings than any current Blue Jays pitcher with Matt Shoemaker at 6IP and Clayton Richard at 11IP. Of course, the biggest key to him being traded would depend on the compensation package coming back.

If Blue Jays management were to be blown away by an offer for Stroman, I think they would consider it, and with only one more season after the upcoming campaign still under team control (2020), it would be mighty tempting to cash out on the Duke University graduate. However, I feel as though with Marcus Stroman’s love for the city of Toronto, and down year statistically, and a career 10.9WAR, the Blue Jays may lock up the longtime Blue Jay to fit in with their future window of contention.

#Bluejays point out in their release announcing the trade that Clayton Richard has been the most effective NL pitcher at inducing ground balls over the past four years. That’s a good thing.

2019 rotation: Stroman, Sanchez, Borucki, Shoemaker, Richard. #ForNow
— Mike Wilner (@Wilnerness) December 30, 2018

Clayton Richard (35) LHP

Trade Potential: VERY HIGH

Contract: Three Million (Final Year)

2018: 7-11, 5.33ERA in 158.2IP, -1.2WAR

Clayton Richard is the most likely Toronto Blue Jay starting pitcher to be traded this upcoming season. At 35 years old, and with an expiring contract at year’s end, there is no reason really to keep the left-hander through the full season. I wrote recently about how Richard could end up as a relief pitcher this season, depending on the circumstances, and that has a real possibility of happening.

Yet there is a way that Richard could pitch out of the rotation, and get dealt as well. He’s coming into spring training battling for the last rotation spot against Sean Reid-Foley and potentially others, and has the experience to likely put him over the top. Last season the southpaw pitched in 158.2 innings, and he put up197.1 innings in 2017. With the Blue Jays having little in the way of experienced innings eaters, and a history of injuries, it may lead them to start the season with Clayton Richard in the rotation regardless of spring training results.

If Richard were to perform well during the regular season and deliver a decent first half, he will likely be moved to a team looking for left-handed help. In 2017, the Blue Jays were able to move veteran lefty Francisco Liriano to the Houston Astro’s for prospects while he was pitching a 5.88ERA in 88.2IP. It goes to show that teams are willing to take on left-handed pitchers with experience, even if their peripheral numbers are not the greatest, and with Richard’s low price of 1.5 million for 2019 (San Diego is paying the other 1.5 million) teams won’t have to think twice about taking a flier on the veteran. Look for Clayton Richard to be traded in 2019 whether he is pitching in the starting rotation, or the bullpen, with his only chance of staying in Blue being if he were to completely fall off the world statistically, and offer no value to other teams at all.

ST PETERSBURG, FL – SEPTEMBER 29: Ryan Borucki #56 of the Toronto Blue Jays throws a pitch in the second inning against the Tampa Bay Rays on September 29, 2018 at Tropicana Field in St Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images) /

No Chance Club

Ryan Borucki (24) LHP

Trent Thornton (25) RHP

Sean Reid-Foley (23) RHP

Sam Gaviglio (28) RHP

These young arms are the future of the Blue Jays rotation, and I cannot see any of them being moved for any reason this season, although as we saw last season with Roberto Osuna anything can happen.

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However, with no Blue Jays starters being under contract after the 2020 season, the front office will need to find a few starters among their prospects over the next two seasons if they are going to be successful.

Borucki is all but a lock for the rotation after posting a 3.87 ERA in 17 starts last year, and ending up as arguably the rotation’s best option after Happ was traded to New York. Chances are he’ll pitch somewhere in the middle of the rotation and the Blue Jays will hope he can build on a successful start to his MLB career.

Thornton and Reid-Foley will both be given a chance to compete for a spot this spring, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see both start the year fine-tuning their skills in Buffalo. Gaviglio is a serviceable back-of-the-rotation option, but is likely headed for a long relief role, and could be counted on as an injury replacement as he was last year.

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They will likely start the season with a few veterans in the rotation who ultimately might get dealt if they perform, opening up spots for these rookie pitchers to be called up and audition for 2020 rotation jobs. So while the roster has undergone a lot of change in the last calendar year, there could be more on the way in 2019, including in the rotation.

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