Blue Jays: Promising Starting Pitching Depth Waiting in the Minors

The Blue Jays starting staff has had more than their fair share of struggles this season. Despite being advertised as the strength of the 2018 Blue Jays, the rotation has often hindered them, rather than helping them.

For all the struggles of the big league rotation, the Blue Jays have had a few starters quietly playing well in the minor leagues. All of Deck McGuire, Chris Rowley, Sean Reid-Foley, Justin Dillon, and Ryan Borucki have pitched well at certain points in the minor leagues.

Starting pitching depth in the minor leagues is always an important topic, but it could become integral to the team’s success after this season. J.A. Happ and Marco Estrada are bound for free agency. As well, Jaime Garcia’s team option for next season may not be picked up. Therefore, the Blue Jays could potentially need to fill three rotation spots on next year’s roster.

Since Deck McGuire and Chris Rowley are both still toiling in the minors at 28 and 27 years-old, respectively, I don’t see them making significant contribution to a major league rotation. This is not to say that they couldn’t find a spot in the majors, but I don’t believe they will be impact starters for the Blue Jays. Therefore, I won’t spend much time focusing on what they’ve done this season—instead focusing on who I think have a strong chance to become a starter in the major leagues.

The Blue Jays also have both Taylor Guerrieri and T.J. Zeuch. Both have shown some promise in the minors, but not anything worth an in depth look, right now. Also, before his suspension, Thomas Pannone would have been an interesting name on the Buffalo roster.

However, each of Ryan Borucki, Justin Dillon, and Sean Reid-Foley are under 25 years old and have been quietly making names for themselves in double-A New Hampshire and triple-A Buffalo.

Justin Dillon

Justin Dillon was drafted just last year in the 2017 amateur players draft. The former tenth round pick started the season in high-A Dunedin, before quickly jumping to AAA where he dominated. Through four appearances and three starts, Dillon managed a 2-1 record and a sparkling 0.79 ERA.

However, if you’re looking for Justin Dillon now, you’ll find him in double-A New Hampshire. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s teammate has been more human in double-A, and probably more representative of his actual skill.

In triple-A Dillon owned a 98% LOB% and a .143 BABIP. Unless the right-hander is actually just Justin Verlander in disguise, these are not sustainable numbers. For those wondering, I assume that he was sent back to double-A simply because there was not enough room for him in the Buffalo rotation.

The right-hander has made just one start in double-A, pitching six innings, allowing two earned runs, eight hits, one walk, and four strikeouts. While not amazing, this is still a servicable start. In high-A Dunedin, the young righty was mediocre.

Through six appearances and four starts, Dillon posted an 0-3 record, 4.43 ERA, and 2.01 HR/9. However, these numbers are slightly misleading. First of all, he only really had one bad outing in Dunedin. Pitching against the Daytona Tortugas, the young pitcher allowed nine hits, six earned runs, and two walks across 4 1/3 innings. In all of his other appearances, Dillon allowed three earned runs once, one earned run twice, and shut out the other team twice.

Secondly, the right-hander was slightly unlucky in Dunedin. Dillon was severely hurt by an inflated 23.8% HR/FB rate. This bloated rate started to correct itself in Buffalo and New Hampshire, where he allowed a 6.9% and 0% HR/FB rate, respectively. For reference, while making 13 appearances in Lansing in 2017, he allowed no home runs across 23 complete innings.

Dillon has gotten away from his good ground ball rate while in Buffalo and New Hampshire, and his fly ball rate has ballooned as a result. I doubt this is by design, so Dillon should only get better when he returns to his ground ball inducing ways.

The young pitcher needs to induce ground balls as his strikeout numbers are not strong. In Dunedin, New Hampshire, and Buffalo, he has held a 6.85, 6.00, and 7.54 K/9, respectively. These are not strong numbers, and clearly he needs to induce ground balls.

While he struggled with walks in Dunedin, he allowed just three walks in five appearances for New Hampshire and Buffalo. Like Borucki, one would hope that these low walk numbers are the norm, not an anomaly. Based on his numbers in Lansing, holding a decent 4.4% BB% and 1.57 BB/9, it is a reasonable assumption that he has better command than his Dunedin numbers suggest.

Dillon is the oldest of the group, currently 24 years of age, but turning 25 later this year. Because of his age, his prospect clock is a little bit faster than Borucki or Reid-Foley. However, if he can continue the strong numbers he posted in Buffalo while he is in New Hampshire, there is a chance he could make an impact on the big league team midway through the 2019 season or at the start of the 2020 season.

Sean Reid-Foley

Sean Reid-Foley is by far the best prospect of all these pitchers. At just 22-years-old, Reid-Foley still has a lot of years to develop and improve his game. The Blue Jays acquired him in the second round of the 2014 amateur players draft.

The big righty was recently called up to the triple-A Bisons and received a very rude welcome from Syracuse. The Bisons starter went just 2 1/3 innings, allowing eight hits, eight earned runs, and two walks. Usually a ground ball pitcher, the young starter produced ground balls at about half the rate he did while in double-A.

While in double-A New Hampshire, Reid-Foley was dominant. Through eight starts and 44 1/3 innings pitched, the right-hander owned a 5-0 record, 2.03 ERA, 54.5% GB%, and a 10.56 K/9. In fact, he never let in more than two earned runs in his double-A starts this season.

While he was roughed up in his first outing for Buffalo, he bounced back decently well in late May. Against the Columbus Clippers, the right-hander managed six complete innings, allowing five hits, three earned runs, and one walk to ten strikeouts.

Overall, the young starter owns an 0-1 record, 11.88 ERA, 12.96 K/9, 28% GB%, and 3.24 BB/9. These numbers, as already explained, are bloated by his poor first start for the Blue Jays triple-A affiliate. However, there are more than a few numbers suggest that big things await Reid-Foley in Buffalo.

First, his LOB% is a terrible 31.3% in Buffalo. While in New Hampshire, he held a good 87.3% LOB%. Therefore, it’s likely just a lack of comfort and high adrenaline that hurt the young pitcher in his first start.

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Further proof of his skill at the triple-A level, his FIP—fielding independent pitching—is a miniscule 1.55. This is incredibly low number would easily be the best number in the major leagues, right now. His low FIP suggests that he has been pitching well but had some bad luck from his fielding. Therefore, one can expect that his ERA will slowly lower back down to a much more impressive number over time—in short, don’t worry so much about his overall numbers right now.

Not to beat a dead horse, but his incredibly high .500 BABIP also suggests that he will eventually come back around. For reference, while in New Hampshire earlier this season, his BABIP was a more realistic .240. Starting for New Hampshire in 2017, it was .318. Eventually his BABIP at Buffalo will be back between .240 and .318.

Through two starts the right-hander has also yet to give up a home run. Amazingly, despite giving up eight earned runs in one game, he never allowed a home run. Limiting the long ball has always been a skill for the young starter. In fact, his HR/9 has only been over 1.00 once in his minor league career—his first year at double-A New Hampshire.

Reid-Foley has strong strikeout numbers in his minor league career. Even with his rough outing in Buffalo, he owns both a good 12.96 K/9 and 29.3% K-rate. Strikeout numbers, coupled with his strong ground ball rate, show the makings of a future impact starter in the majors.

However, the former second round pick is not without his faults. As you might expect from a strikeout pitcher, he has struggled with walks through his minor league career. In fact, even while dominating double-A earlier this season, he held a poor 4.06 BB/9 and 11.2% BB-rate. In my opinion, Reid-Foley needs to improve this facet of his game the most. He needs to learn to command his pitches to make it as a starter in the major leagues. Once he does have this skill, though, he could be dangerous.

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I don’t see a scenario where Reid-Foley sees a major league field this season. It seems he will continue to work in Buffalo and try to prove that he can handle this challenge. From there, I would expect him to start 2019 in triple-A, with a chance to play his way to the majors. Even this is a bit of a reach, though. Don’t be surprised if he was makes the big club in the 2020 season—when he would still be a very young 24-year-old starter.