Blue Jays: Promising Starting Pitching Depth Waiting in the Minors

Ryan Borucki

Ryan Borucki entered the season with a fair amount of fanfare and hype. In fact, our own minor league specialist, Craig Borden, listed the left-hander as the tenth best prospect in the Blue Jays system.

Borucki has built off of the hype, posting a 5-5 record and 3.14 ERA in 10 starts for the Bisons. The big lefty is more than just his surface results, though. The young pitcher has made significant growth with respect to the type of contact he allows.

In his ten starts for the Bisons, Borucki holds an extreme ground ball rate of 57.1%. As well, he has decreased his fly ball rate to a better 29.4%. Last year, in double-A New Hampshire, he held a ground ball rate of 55.9% and a fly ball rate of 34.7%. While these are not major jumps/drops in rate, it shows that he is learning to produce better contact while playing against better hitters.

Borucki has been excellent at preventing home runs this season. Through 57 1/3 innings pitched, he has allowed a measly 0.47 HR/9. Some may be concerned by his below average HR/FB rate, 6.3%, but the left-hander’s past history proves that this number is mor sustainable than one would initially think. For example, in 20 starts for the Lansing Lugnuts in 2016, the young hurler held a criminally low 1.1% HR/FB rate and unbelievable 0.08 HR/9. Thus it is reasonable to assume that a below average HR/FB rate is sustainable.

The young left-hander is not perfect, or finished developing, by any means. He has struggled with allowing free passes this season. Currently in possession of an 8.1% BB-rate and 2.98 BB/9, he will need to work on his command to earn a spot on a major league roster. As well, he has slightly below average strikeout numbers—a 19.9% K rate and 7.38 K/9—so Borucki should avoid deep counts as much as possible. To pitch his best, he should pound the zone and keep inducing ground balls. This will allow him to avoid deep counts and start to reduce his walk rate.

Promisingly, he has allowed more than one walk just once over his past four starts. The results have been encouraging in these four starts, posting a 1.86 ERA—showing how effective he could be without allowing walks.

Borucki has proven the ability to go deep into games over his past six starts. Over these six appearances, the lefty has pitched at least six complete innings five times—throwing 5 2/3 in the one non-six inning start. As well, he has pitched seven complete innings twice in these six starts. Impressively, he has needed more than 100 pitches just once. Furthermore, he has thrown shut outs in half of the aforementioned starts. In total, the promising young pitcher has posted a 4-2 record, 1.69 ERA, and an average game score of 66.8.

With the hot streak that he is on, the former 15^th round pick may get a late call-up to the Major League team this season. Even if he doesn’t make the majors this year, a recently-turned-24-year-old dominating in AAA is never a bad thing for an organization. Personally, I would like to see him join the big club at some point this season. I think it is important to test him this year to see if he could take a rotation spot next year. Of course, this is under the assumption that the Blue Jays trade a starter if they are out of the wildcard race.

Justin Dillon

Justin Dillon was drafted just last year in the 2017 amateur players draft. The former tenth round pick started the season in high-A Dunedin, before quickly jumping to AAA where he dominated. Through four appearances and three starts, Dillon managed a 2-1 record and a sparkling 0.79 ERA.

However, if you’re looking for Justin Dillon now, you’ll find him in double-A New Hampshire. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s teammate has been more human in double-A, and probably more representative of his actual skill.

In triple-A Dillon owned a 98% LOB% and a .143 BABIP. Unless the right-hander is actually just Justin Verlander in disguise, these are not sustainable numbers. For those wondering, I assume that he was sent back to double-A simply because there was not enough room for him in the Buffalo rotation.

The right-hander has made just one start in double-A, pitching six innings, allowing two earned runs, eight hits, one walk, and four strikeouts. While not amazing, this is still a servicable start. In high-A Dunedin, the young righty was mediocre.

Through six appearances and four starts, Dillon posted an 0-3 record, 4.43 ERA, and 2.01 HR/9. However, these numbers are slightly misleading. First of all, he only really had one bad outing in Dunedin. Pitching against the Daytona Tortugas, the young pitcher allowed nine hits, six earned runs, and two walks across 4 1/3 innings. In all of his other appearances, Dillon allowed three earned runs once, one earned run twice, and shut out the other team twice.

Secondly, the right-hander was slightly unlucky in Dunedin. Dillon was severely hurt by an inflated 23.8% HR/FB rate. This bloated rate started to correct itself in Buffalo and New Hampshire, where he allowed a 6.9% and 0% HR/FB rate, respectively. For reference, while making 13 appearances in Lansing in 2017, he allowed no home runs across 23 complete innings.

Dillon has gotten away from his good ground ball rate while in Buffalo and New Hampshire, and his fly ball rate has ballooned as a result. I doubt this is by design, so Dillon should only get better when he returns to his ground ball inducing ways.

The young pitcher needs to induce ground balls as his strikeout numbers are not strong. In Dunedin, New Hampshire, and Buffalo, he has held a 6.85, 6.00, and 7.54 K/9, respectively. These are not strong numbers, and clearly he needs to induce ground balls.

While he struggled with walks in Dunedin, he allowed just three walks in five appearances for New Hampshire and Buffalo. Like Borucki, one would hope that these low walk numbers are the norm, not an anomaly. Based on his numbers in Lansing, holding a decent 4.4% BB% and 1.57 BB/9, it is a reasonable assumption that he has better command than his Dunedin numbers suggest.

Dillon is the oldest of the group, currently 24 years of age, but turning 25 later this year. Because of his age, his prospect clock is a little bit faster than Borucki or Reid-Foley. However, if he can continue the strong numbers he posted in Buffalo while he is in New Hampshire, there is a chance he could make an impact on the big league team midway through the 2019 season or at the start of the 2020 season.

Sean Reid-Foley

Sean Reid-Foley is by far the best prospect of all these pitchers. At just 22-years-old, Reid-Foley still has a lot of years to develop and improve his game. The Blue Jays acquired him in the second round of the 2014 amateur players draft.

The big righty was recently called up to the triple-A Bisons and received a very rude welcome from Syracuse. The Bisons starter went just 2 1/3 innings, allowing eight hits, eight earned runs, and two walks. Usually a ground ball pitcher, the young starter produced ground balls at about half the rate he did while in double-A.

While in double-A New Hampshire, Reid-Foley was dominant. Through eight starts and 44 1/3 innings pitched, the right-hander owned a 5-0 record, 2.03 ERA, 54.5% GB%, and a 10.56 K/9. In fact, he never let in more than two earned runs in his double-A starts this season.

While he was roughed up in his first outing for Buffalo, he bounced back decently well in late May. Against the Columbus Clippers, the right-hander managed six complete innings, allowing five hits, three earned runs, and one walk to ten strikeouts.

Overall, the young starter owns an 0-1 record, 11.88 ERA, 12.96 K/9, 28% GB%, and 3.24 BB/9. These numbers, as already explained, are bloated by his poor first start for the Blue Jays triple-A affiliate. However, there are more than a few numbers suggest that big things await Reid-Foley in Buffalo.

First, his LOB% is a terrible 31.3% in Buffalo. While in New Hampshire, he held a good 87.3% LOB%. Therefore, it’s likely just a lack of comfort and high adrenaline that hurt the young pitcher in his first start.

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Further proof of his skill at the triple-A level, his FIP—fielding independent pitching—is a miniscule 1.55. This is incredibly low number would easily be the best number in the major leagues, right now. His low FIP suggests that he has been pitching well but had some bad luck from his fielding. Therefore, one can expect that his ERA will slowly lower back down to a much more impressive number over time—in short, don’t worry so much about his overall numbers right now.

Not to beat a dead horse, but his incredibly high .500 BABIP also suggests that he will eventually come back around. For reference, while in New Hampshire earlier this season, his BABIP was a more realistic .240. Starting for New Hampshire in 2017, it was .318. Eventually his BABIP at Buffalo will be back between .240 and .318.

Through two starts the right-hander has also yet to give up a home run. Amazingly, despite giving up eight earned runs in one game, he never allowed a home run. Limiting the long ball has always been a skill for the young starter. In fact, his HR/9 has only been over 1.00 once in his minor league career—his first year at double-A New Hampshire.

Reid-Foley has strong strikeout numbers in his minor league career. Even with his rough outing in Buffalo, he owns both a good 12.96 K/9 and 29.3% K-rate. Strikeout numbers, coupled with his strong ground ball rate, show the makings of a future impact starter in the majors.

However, the former second round pick is not without his faults. As you might expect from a strikeout pitcher, he has struggled with walks through his minor league career. In fact, even while dominating double-A earlier this season, he held a poor 4.06 BB/9 and 11.2% BB-rate. In my opinion, Reid-Foley needs to improve this facet of his game the most. He needs to learn to command his pitches to make it as a starter in the major leagues. Once he does have this skill, though, he could be dangerous.

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I don’t see a scenario where Reid-Foley sees a major league field this season. It seems he will continue to work in Buffalo and try to prove that he can handle this challenge. From there, I would expect him to start 2019 in triple-A, with a chance to play his way to the majors. Even this is a bit of a reach, though. Don’t be surprised if he was makes the big club in the 2020 season—when he would still be a very young 24-year-old starter.