Blue Jays Opposing Pitcher Report: Drew Pomeranz

Sunday, May 13, the Blue Jays play the rubber match of a three game series against the division rival Boston Red Sox. Drew Pomeranz will take the hill for the Sox while Joe Biagini will start for the Blue Jays.

Drew Pomeranz was traded from the San Diego Padres to the Red Sox mid-way through the season in 2016. The lefty was picked up to consolidate a postseason rotation and last year, Pomeranz was excellent for Boston. However, this year has been a very different story. In just four starts and 20 2/3 innings pitched, Pomeranz has struggled to a 5.23 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, and 89 ERA+.

The big lefty features the same pitching repertoire as the preceding starter, David Price. Pomeranz utilizes a fastball, knuckle curveball, cutter, sinker, and change-up. However, he is primarily a fastball-curveball pitcher.

The southpaw’s fastball, his primary pitch, is used 46% of the time. The fastball is quite slow, maintaining a speed around 90 mph. However, it is placed well and is used to create fly balls. in April, the fastball produced fly balls 62.5% of the time.

The knuckle curve is used second most, at a rate of 32.6%. The curve is a slow (avg. 76.9 mph), big breaker that can be used in a few different scenarios. The curve can be thrown early as a “get-me-over pitch”, or, it has proven the ability to produce a good amount of groundballs—producing groundballs on 56% of all balls in play this year.

The cutter slightly edges out the sinker as the third most used pitch by Pomeranz. It is employed 9.6% of the time while averaging a velocity of 84.9 mph. The cutter is just behind the curveball in producing whiffs/swing—holding a whiff rate of 27.05% in his career.

Pomeranz’ sinker, which hurtles towards the plate between 87 and 89 mph, is used 8.8% of the time. The sinker has produced ground balls at a decent rate of 46.83% throughout his career. However, this year, the sinker has produced a crazy 80% fly ball rate and no ground balls. In his four starts this year, the lefty’s sinker has been used 32 times, producing 25 fly balls and seven line drives. Clearly the sinker is not serving its role. Overall, the pitch has been worth a disappointing -1.5 wSI.

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Finally, the change is used by the lefty 3% of the time. The change has produced a large amount of groundballs this year. In 11 total uses, the changeup has resulted in 8 groundballs.

Pomeranz has struggled with the long ball in his starts this year. Through four starts, the Tennessee native has allowed five home runs. This has led to a terrible 2.2 HR9 and has been a major reason why he has struggled this year.

As well, Pomeranz has struggled with producing weak contact off his pitches this year. Currently his soft% sits at 11.5%, a rate well below his career average 20%. As well, his hard% has been elevated to a rate of 41%, almost 11% more than his career average (30.2%). These troubling numbers, matched with his increased fly ball rate, explain why he has struggled with the home run so much this year.

Justin Smoak and Luke Maile have enjoyed hitting Pomeranz in their career. Smoak, the North Carolina native, has four hits in eleven at-bats with a .988 OPS in career match ups against Pomeranz. Maile has four hits, including a home run, in eight career at-bats against Pomeranz. Interestingly, along with his four hits, Maile also has four strikeouts against the Boston pitcher.

Kevin Pillar, Josh Donaldson, and Yangervis Solarte have not handled Pomeranz well in their career. Pillar has just two hits and three strikeouts in 14 at-bats. Donaldson has three hits and four strikeouts in 14 at-bats. Solarte has yet to even reach base against Pomeranz in seven career at-bats.

The Blue Jays will have to provide run support early and often if they want to take the series victory against the Red Sox. It is unreasonable to expect Joe Biagini to shut down the powerful Boston line up. Therefore, it is up to the hitters to match Boston along the way in order to get on the plane to New York with a weekend series victory.

Next: Why does Russell Martin get off the hook?