Blue Jays: Ranking and Dissecting the First Half

With a record of 41-47 to close out the first half, the Blue Jays have come up short of their expectations in 2017. We’ll take a look at what’s gone well, all that’s gone wrong, and what the future may hold for the team.

It’s been one of the most inconsistent seasons I can remember as a baseball fan, which has culminated in the Blue Jays sitting in last place in the AL East, and 8.5 back of the Red Sox. They’re 5.0 games back in the Wild Card race as well, but have to leapfrog seven teams in order to take one of the two spots. That’s a tall order, even at this early (ish) stage of the season.

Not everything has been bad, as we’ve watched Justin Smoak transform into an All-Star before our eyes, and he will represent the club at the Mid-Summer classic on Tuesday. He’ll be joined by Roberto Osuna, who has been as dominant as any closer in baseball this year.

However, the bad far outweighs the good for the Blue Jays this season, which isn’t hard to figure out when you look at how things have gone. They’ve had tremendous struggles to overcome in the injury department, including the likes of Devon Travis, Josh Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki and more on offence, and Aaron Sanchez, J.A. Happ, Francisco Liriano and plenty more on the pitching staff.

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It hasn’t just been the injury issues though, as even those who’ve managed to stay healthy have largely struggled on the diamond. One could argue that their two All-Stars are the only players who’ve outperformed expectations, and that’s not exactly a recipe for a contending team.

Let’s have a look at each department of the team, and break down what’s gone wrong for such a talented roster.

Pitching Staff: C+

Injuries really have taken their toll on the pitching staff, and I’d make an argument that they’ve overachieved in some ways, especially when you account for the DL time spent by crucial arms.

Aaron Sanchez went from the 2016 AL ERA leader, to a completely irrelevant arm in the first half of this season. Fortunately he’s healthy and back on the mound now, but it’s been frustrating that he hasn’t been able to build on such a strong 2016 performance. Assuming he can stay healthy, the Blue Jays should get tremendous value from him in the second half, but unfortunately it’s been next to nothing to this point in the campaign.

J.A. Happ and Francisco Liriano also spent time on the DL, with Happ in particular missing a big chunk of time. They’ve also received next to nothing from J.P. Howell, who has spent nearly all of the season on the DL, and are currently missing Joe Smith, who was one of their most effective relievers before his injury.

Throw in names like Bo Schultz, Leonel Campos, Glenn Sparkman, and the early issues with Roberto Osuna, and the bullpen has overcome an awful lot in their mediocrity. Guys like Ryan Tepera and Danny Barnes have really stepped up, so it’s not all doom and gloom on the staff either. Marcus Stroman has been their best starter, and likely should have been an All-Star as well.

As a unit they carry a 4.53 ERA, good for seventh in the American League. With a healthy Sanchez, and hopefully an improved performance from Happ and the struggling Marco Estrada, the pitching staff really isn’t the biggest problem in Toronto, despite the less than stellar first half. They have had solid performances from Osuna and Stroman, and hopefully the others can have a stronger second half to improve the numbers for the talented group.

Hitting: D-

If someone wanted to make a bet with me in April that Justin Smoak was the only offensive All-Star, I would have put the deed to my house on the line. 2017 has just gone to show that nothing is for certain in the game of baseball, and that certainly applies to the slugging first baseman, but in the good way.

On the downside, pretty much everyone else has disappointed, whether due to injury or underperformance. Devon Travis rebounded from a dreadful start to break the Blue Jays’ franchise record for doubles in May. Unfortunately he’s now out for what looks like the rest of the year, after having surgery to clean up problems in his troublesome knee.

Kevin Pillar was the team’s best hitter in April, but has since struggled and regressed closer to career norms. Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki spent a good portion of the first half of the disabled list, and I’m not sure that either has been 100% healthy yet this year. Their numbers aren’t where fans and pundits would expect them to be, but injuries have their way of doing that to a player’s slash line.

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The team batting average of .244 is 12th in the American League, and it’s been awful with runners in scoring position, coming in at .226. They’ve been heavily reliant on the long ball as usual, only this year they haven’t been hit with the same frequency. It hasn’t been a successful formula.

With Jose Bautista on an expiring contract (assuming his option isn’t picked up), and Donaldson a year away from free agency, there will certainly be chatter around the Blue Jays as a deadline seller. Bautista is a 10-5 candidate, so he would have to approve a potential trade, but he may entertain it to go to a contender, especially if he knows the Blue Jays won’t be bringing him back next year. Losing changes a lot of things.

Defence: C-

Kevin Pillar has been up to his usual tricks in centre field, routinely crashing into the wall, or diving into the turf to take away another potential hit. Hopefully this will be the year that he’s rewarded with a Gold Glove trophy, as he’s put together another highlight reel filled campaign with the glove.

With names on the roster like Donaldson, Tulowitzki, Russell Martin, Ryan Goins, and other strong defenders, it’s surprising to see that the team is sitting at -2.5 bWAR on defence as we hit the All-Star Break. Pillar is sitting at 0.8 dWAR earned thus far, but the situation isn’t pretty for many others.

Bautista is -1.2 on defence, and Ezequiel Carrera is close behind at -1.0, despite playing far fewer games in the outfield. “Zeke” has looked lost at times in left field, dropping balls and making odd choices about where to throw the ball. Steve Pearce hasn’t been much better in left either, sitting at -0.6. Shockingly, even Ryan Goins is in the red, sitting at -0.2.

On the plus side, Russell Martin has earned +0.3, and Donaldson has done in the same in limited action. Otherwise, things are pretty rough on the defensive end in Toronto, which is a little surprising considering how strong the defence has been in the last few years. We expected a few adventures in the corner outfield, but a negative 2.5 team rating didn’t seem like it would be in the cards, and yet here we are. Acquiring Miguel Montero won’t help either, as Luke Maile had earned the only other positive mark over 0.5, finishing with 0.6 before hitting the DL.