A Blue Jays, Sanchez Extension: Optimist, Pessimist, Realist

Optimist – Jim Scott

Why would Sanchez sign an extension with the Jays now?

1. He is not rich – His 2010 signing bonus was $775,000 and he has only made the MLB minimum to date. Signing a deal that guarantees him lifetime financial security in case of injury should be very attractive.
2. He can see the risk – It is not that uncommon for a young pitcher to have an excellent first season, but then struggle. Think Gerrit Cole in 2016 – or Ricky Romero in 2012. The Jays are in a better position to assume that risk than he is – and it is different risk appetites that make for win-win contracts.
3. There is limited downside – The Jays would likely offer him something close to the maximum he can reasonably expect through arbitration, and would likely not insist on options covering his free agent years so he would not be leaving significant money on the table.
4. The Jays are winners – The Jays are coming off two strong years, and the future is bright. Emotionally, this might be a good time for him to make the commitment to the team inherent in a four-year deal.

Verdict: And what would an extension look like? Well, Dallas Keuchel got $7.25 mil in his first arbitration year, but that was after winning the Cy Young. So something along the lines of 2-5-10-13 for Sanchez (4 year/30 mil) with a couple of mutual options in the $15-20 mil range in 2021 and 2022 may be enough to convince the young right-hander to forego the arbitration process, and sign a long-term contract extension with the Blue Jays.