A Blue Jays, Sanchez Extension: Optimist, Pessimist, Realist

For the upcoming season, Jays Journal will be introducing a new weekly series where contributors take a look at the latest Blue Jays rumor or news piece from the viewpoint of an optimist, a pessimist, and a realist. There are 3 sides to every argument: yours, mine and the truth (or somewhere close to it anyway).

This week, we’ll take a look at Aaron Sanchez, his vast potential, and how that might shape up for the Blue Jays over time. Sanchez has set himself up for immense financial earnings in the future with the hiring of super-agent, Scott Boras. Barring major injuries and unpredictable decline, Sanchez projects to earn significant figures in the arbitration process while setting himself up for a massive contract in 2021. However, the Boras hiring has already hinted at future negative, public theatrics during contract negotiations, which may threaten the Blue Jays’ chances of signing their young star.

It’s not a pressing issue by any means, as the Blue Jays have 4 years of control on his control, but if he can do things like lead the AL in ERA, and finish in the top 10 in Cy Young voting, his salary will go up quickly in arbitration. Only time will tell how the Blue Jays will handle the situation with Sanchez and his influence new agent.

Pessimist – Jason Lee

The largest contract in Blue Jays history was given to Vernon Wells in 2006, a 7 year/$126 million dollar deal carrying an average annual value of $18 million. If Aaron Sanchez continues to post the numbers he did in 2016, his breakout year, then the Blue Jays would have to shatter that figure in order to re-sign one of the game’s brightest young stars.

Sanchez projects to become a free agent in 2021 at the age of 29, an optimal age for a free agent starter. With Scott Boras at the helm of negotiations, it is hard to imagine Sanchez settling for anything less than a $25 million average annual value, considering the recent contracts of Boras’ top pitcher clients:

Max Scherzer – 7 year/$210 mil (aav of $30 mil/year)

Stephen Strasburg – 7 year/$175 mil (aav of $25 mil/year)

A realistic expectation for an Aaron Sanchez contract extension (after arbitration) should be closer to Stephen Strasburg’s figures rather than Max Scherzer due to Sanchez’s limited track record and model of consistency.

However, the 2015 MLB offseason suggests that the new Blue Jays regime will not extend that type of offer to Aaron Sanchez, as they opted to sign Marco Estrada and J.A. Happ in favor of a bona fide ace in David Price (although that decision has so far proven to work in favor of the Jays). This year’s offseason further solidifies the belief that the Blue Jays will try and maintain their rational, business approach to free agency, as they kept emotions out of a potential Edwin Encarnacion extension.

Verdict: Unless the Blue Jays suddenly decide to abandon a long-standing free agent policy or believe that Aaron Sanchez is a unique, franchise player that will have success through his mid-30s, it is hard to envision the beloved right-hander in a Blue Jays uniform past 2021.

Scott Boras will continue to make a public show about negative negotiations with the Blue Jays, and the front office will trade Sanchez in 2019 to boost a rebuild that will start when Josh Donaldson leaves town to cap off a franchise changing year, reminiscent of Mark Shapiro’s Cleveland Indians rebuild.

Realist – Patrick Allen

Everything you need to know about Aaron Sanchez’s future can be summed up with one name, Scott Boras. Sanchez signed with Boras’ agency group, the Boras Corporation, this offseason after previously being represented by the Legacy Agency. If you’re unfamiliar with the Boras Corporation, their clients were the first players in baseball history to have contracts exceeding the $50 million, $100 million, and $200 million plateau. To put it simply, you sign with Boras to maximize your earning potential.

In his first season as a starter, Sanchez led the American League with 3.00 ERA and finished seventh in AL Cy Young voting. Considering his stellar 2016 numbers, there was controversy this offseason when the Blue Jays extended Sanchez’s contract to the league minimum after he declined a slight pay increase. For the most part, the whole controversy was largely overblown.

The important thing to know regarding Sanchez’s future is that he is under club control for the next four seasons. He is eligible for salary arbitration in 2018, where he should receive a well-deserved pay increase, and becomes eligible for free agency at the conclusion of the 2021 season.

This last figure is the most important, given the fact that Boras’ clients almost always head to market to maximize their value. It is worth noting, however, that last season Stephen Strasburg broke the mold, so to speak, for clients of Boras when he signed a seven-year, $175-million contract extension with the Nationals only months before he would have been eligible to hit the open market.

Verdict: Despite the Strasburg example, it still remains more than likely that Sanchez will hit free agency in 2021, especially if he continues to produce at a rate similar to his 2016 numbers. Though this may seem like a grim outlook, it’s really not.

Next: Blue Jays: Liriano solidifies himself in the rotation

Sanchez has every right to pursue his market value. If he is commanding top of the rotation dollars in 2021, it will be because he successfully built on his strong 2016 campaign and had four more stellar seasons pitching atop the Blue Jays rotation. Toronto is built to win right now; fans should enjoy the ride and not concern themselves with hypotheticals far down the line.