A Blue Jays, Sanchez Extension: Optimist, Pessimist, Realist

Optimist – Jim Scott

Why would Sanchez sign an extension with the Jays now?

1. He is not rich – His 2010 signing bonus was $775,000 and he has only made the MLB minimum to date. Signing a deal that guarantees him lifetime financial security in case of injury should be very attractive.
2. He can see the risk – It is not that uncommon for a young pitcher to have an excellent first season, but then struggle. Think Gerrit Cole in 2016 – or Ricky Romero in 2012. The Jays are in a better position to assume that risk than he is – and it is different risk appetites that make for win-win contracts.
3. There is limited downside – The Jays would likely offer him something close to the maximum he can reasonably expect through arbitration, and would likely not insist on options covering his free agent years so he would not be leaving significant money on the table.
4. The Jays are winners – The Jays are coming off two strong years, and the future is bright. Emotionally, this might be a good time for him to make the commitment to the team inherent in a four-year deal.

Verdict: And what would an extension look like? Well, Dallas Keuchel got $7.25 mil in his first arbitration year, but that was after winning the Cy Young. So something along the lines of 2-5-10-13 for Sanchez (4 year/30 mil) with a couple of mutual options in the $15-20 mil range in 2021 and 2022 may be enough to convince the young right-hander to forego the arbitration process, and sign a long-term contract extension with the Blue Jays.

Pessimist – Jason Lee

The largest contract in Blue Jays history was given to Vernon Wells in 2006, a 7 year/$126 million dollar deal carrying an average annual value of $18 million. If Aaron Sanchez continues to post the numbers he did in 2016, his breakout year, then the Blue Jays would have to shatter that figure in order to re-sign one of the game’s brightest young stars.

Sanchez projects to become a free agent in 2021 at the age of 29, an optimal age for a free agent starter. With Scott Boras at the helm of negotiations, it is hard to imagine Sanchez settling for anything less than a $25 million average annual value, considering the recent contracts of Boras’ top pitcher clients:

Max Scherzer – 7 year/$210 mil (aav of $30 mil/year)

Stephen Strasburg – 7 year/$175 mil (aav of $25 mil/year)

A realistic expectation for an Aaron Sanchez contract extension (after arbitration) should be closer to Stephen Strasburg’s figures rather than Max Scherzer due to Sanchez’s limited track record and model of consistency.

However, the 2015 MLB offseason suggests that the new Blue Jays regime will not extend that type of offer to Aaron Sanchez, as they opted to sign Marco Estrada and J.A. Happ in favor of a bona fide ace in David Price (although that decision has so far proven to work in favor of the Jays). This year’s offseason further solidifies the belief that the Blue Jays will try and maintain their rational, business approach to free agency, as they kept emotions out of a potential Edwin Encarnacion extension.

Verdict: Unless the Blue Jays suddenly decide to abandon a long-standing free agent policy or believe that Aaron Sanchez is a unique, franchise player that will have success through his mid-30s, it is hard to envision the beloved right-hander in a Blue Jays uniform past 2021.

Scott Boras will continue to make a public show about negative negotiations with the Blue Jays, and the front office will trade Sanchez in 2019 to boost a rebuild that will start when Josh Donaldson leaves town to cap off a franchise changing year, reminiscent of Mark Shapiro’s Cleveland Indians rebuild.

Realist – Patrick Allen

Everything you need to know about Aaron Sanchez’s future can be summed up with one name, Scott Boras. Sanchez signed with Boras’ agency group, the Boras Corporation, this offseason after previously being represented by the Legacy Agency. If you’re unfamiliar with the Boras Corporation, their clients were the first players in baseball history to have contracts exceeding the $50 million, $100 million, and $200 million plateau. To put it simply, you sign with Boras to maximize your earning potential.

In his first season as a starter, Sanchez led the American League with 3.00 ERA and finished seventh in AL Cy Young voting. Considering his stellar 2016 numbers, there was controversy this offseason when the Blue Jays extended Sanchez’s contract to the league minimum after he declined a slight pay increase. For the most part, the whole controversy was largely overblown.

The important thing to know regarding Sanchez’s future is that he is under club control for the next four seasons. He is eligible for salary arbitration in 2018, where he should receive a well-deserved pay increase, and becomes eligible for free agency at the conclusion of the 2021 season.

This last figure is the most important, given the fact that Boras’ clients almost always head to market to maximize their value. It is worth noting, however, that last season Stephen Strasburg broke the mold, so to speak, for clients of Boras when he signed a seven-year, $175-million contract extension with the Nationals only months before he would have been eligible to hit the open market.

Verdict: Despite the Strasburg example, it still remains more than likely that Sanchez will hit free agency in 2021, especially if he continues to produce at a rate similar to his 2016 numbers. Though this may seem like a grim outlook, it’s really not.

Next: Blue Jays: Liriano solidifies himself in the rotation

Sanchez has every right to pursue his market value. If he is commanding top of the rotation dollars in 2021, it will be because he successfully built on his strong 2016 campaign and had four more stellar seasons pitching atop the Blue Jays rotation. Toronto is built to win right now; fans should enjoy the ride and not concern themselves with hypotheticals far down the line.