Blue Jays Series Preview and Pitching Matchups: Jays @ Yankees

Game 2: May 25 – 7:05 ET

Marco Estrada (1-2, 2.61 ERA, 3.25 FIP) vs.
Ivan Nova (3-1, 3.26 ERA, 4.29 FIP)

Estrada continues to prove his worth. He consistently adds new weapons to his game to ensure his success at the major league level, and it’s truly a treat to watch right now. He’s done nothing but improve on a season where he threw 180 innings of 3.13 ERA baseball. He’s knocked his ERA down over have a point and over a whole run on his FIP.

He’s done so by generating more swing and misses, and continuing to get better with the home run ball. His 1.2 WAR is already close the 1.8 number he posted last year, and he’s making the Jays brass look fantastic for that offseason’s signing.

He didn’t face the Yankees in the series earlier this year, but I love this matchup for him. If his command is there, he can utilize his three plus pitches to shred the Yankee hitters. Even though his improvements against the home run ball are valid, that’s probably still his biggest weakness, but the Yankees have struggles to hit the ball out of the ballpark.

For Jays hitters, the matchup against Nova is always one I love. He’s put up a solid ERA since joining the rotation, but this is a guy the Jays have seen a lot over the last little while and they’ve hit him to a tune of .286/.361/.435/.796 in 70 IP.

This year, he’s struggled to get a decent strikeout rate and he’s had a hard time controlling the home run, which is a recipe for success in the Jays lineup.

The Jays lineup is built to strikeout a fair amount but also hit for plenty of power, so they can be carved by big strikeout guys who control the home run. Nova isn’t that type of pitcher, and that represents an opportunity for the Jays hitters to feast.

Next: Game 3 Preview: Young and old clash in the finale