Blue Jays Series Preview and Pitching Matchups: Jays @ Yankees

The 22-24 Blue Jays are coming off a 3-1 series win over the Minnesota Twins

It wasn’t the prettiest week of baseball for the Blue Jays, but heading into New York winning three of the last four has to has to create a certain amount of momentum. Mind you, it was against the hopeless Twins, but nonetheless, all wins look the same in the win category and they have to use the three they got this weekend as a positive moving forward.

The Yankees were sputtering through the first portion of the season until they got the Athletics for a four game series. They swept the A’s this past weekend and have won five in a row, moving their record to a more palatable 21-22 for the year.

Much has been made about the Yankees lacklustre offence so far this year, and that hasn’t changed to a large degree during their winning streak. Over the past seven days, their wRC+ is sitting at 97, only seven points higher than their season long number of 90. It’s an improvement, but not one that will lead to a large increase in a team’s chances of winning games.

It’s been their pitching staff that has led to a change in their play. Over that same time period, the Yankees staff has put up a 3.57 ERA, 2.81 FIP in 60.1 IP. Their 9.30 K/9 and 1.77 BB/9 are elite, and they’ve been able to stifle opposing offences.

Their rotation has dramatically improved during this time, which is huge because their bullpen is ridiculously dominant. With Aroldis Chapman back in the fold, their trio of Andrew Miller, Dellin Betances, and Chapman is simply unfair.

The Jays will need to get to the Yankees starters early in games and not allow them to hold leads going into the late innings. The Yankees won’t score a bunch of runs, but their decent staff and strong bullpen allows them to win a lot of one run ball games. Jumping out to a quick lead against them is the best way to give yourself the highest chances of winning.

Getting out a quick lead is important against every team, but more so against a team where their strength lies in holding leads as opposed to overcoming deficits. If the Jays offence can only manage 2-3 runs against the Yankees starters, they will have a tough time winning close games against the Yankees pen.

First, we take a look across the diamond at the New York Yankees’ offence:

Next: A look across the diamond: The Bronx Bombers?

Across the Diamond

On the offensive side of things, the Yankees lineup is a very veteran heavy group. Brett Gardner, Carlos Beltran, Alex Rodriguez, Brian McCann, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Mark Teixeira have all been around for plenty of time and don’t offer the same ceiling they used to due to deteriorating physical skills, but they still possess good plate discipline, the ability to put strong at bats together, and good barrel to ball skills.

Despite them struggling on the offensive side of the ball for much of the year, they still have the ability to grind out at bats, and find away to scrape across runs due to their veteran presence. That’s exactly what happened in the first game of their series earlier this year, with the Yankees winning 3-2 in the first game.

They didn’t blow the Jays away in any aspect of the game, except in the late innings with their bullpen, but they managed to scrape across an extra run while being able to hold the Jays bats off. In the latter two games, the Jays put up seven and four runs on offence, and we’re able to keep the Yankee bats in check, giving up four combined runs in those games.

If the Jays can do a decent job on offence by getting to their starters early in the game, then they should be able to handle the veteran Yankee hitters to the point where they can win the series.

So far this year, the Yankees don’t have any standouts offensively, but instead have a group of hitters sitting in the 105-120 wRC+ range. Gardner, Beltran, Ellsbury, McCann, and Starlin Castro have put up numbers between 103 and 122, but their offence as a whole is being dragged down by Chase Headley at 62, Didi Gregorius at 74, Teixeira at 63, and Aaron Hicks at 50.

It’s an offence that doesn’t have the firepower the Jays’ offence possesses, and it still has the black holes that give pitchers a break. This isn’t a lineup that strikes fear into the opposing pitcher, and the Jays’ pitchers will need to attack them at all times.

Ultimately, the Yankees are on their best streak so far this year, so from that perspective, the Jays get them at an unlucky time, but I don’t believe they have the rotation or the lineup to contend with the Jays. If they give a lead to their bullpen, they’re more than likely to win the game, and if the Jays can prevent that, they have a good chance to walk away with a second consecutive series victory.

Let’s dive in to the game-by-game pitching matchups:

Next: Game 1 Preview: A mismatch of styles

Game 2: May 25 – 7:05 ET

Marco Estrada (1-2, 2.61 ERA, 3.25 FIP) vs.
Ivan Nova (3-1, 3.26 ERA, 4.29 FIP)

Estrada continues to prove his worth. He consistently adds new weapons to his game to ensure his success at the major league level, and it’s truly a treat to watch right now. He’s done nothing but improve on a season where he threw 180 innings of 3.13 ERA baseball. He’s knocked his ERA down over have a point and over a whole run on his FIP.

He’s done so by generating more swing and misses, and continuing to get better with the home run ball. His 1.2 WAR is already close the 1.8 number he posted last year, and he’s making the Jays brass look fantastic for that offseason’s signing.

He didn’t face the Yankees in the series earlier this year, but I love this matchup for him. If his command is there, he can utilize his three plus pitches to shred the Yankee hitters. Even though his improvements against the home run ball are valid, that’s probably still his biggest weakness, but the Yankees have struggles to hit the ball out of the ballpark.

For Jays hitters, the matchup against Nova is always one I love. He’s put up a solid ERA since joining the rotation, but this is a guy the Jays have seen a lot over the last little while and they’ve hit him to a tune of .286/.361/.435/.796 in 70 IP.

This year, he’s struggled to get a decent strikeout rate and he’s had a hard time controlling the home run, which is a recipe for success in the Jays lineup.

The Jays lineup is built to strikeout a fair amount but also hit for plenty of power, so they can be carved by big strikeout guys who control the home run. Nova isn’t that type of pitcher, and that represents an opportunity for the Jays hitters to feast.

Next: Game 3 Preview: Young and old clash in the finale

Game 3: May 26 – 4:05 ET

Aaron Sanchez (4-1, 3.20 ERA, 3.31 FIP) vs.
C.C. Sabathia (3-2, 3.41 ERA, 3.16 FIP)

Sanchez’s command can waver at times, but there’s no doubting his ability to miss bats and generate weak contact. His three pitch mix of sinker, curve and changeup is impressive, as all three offerings have excellent movement, and when his command is there, he can be downright dominant.

His lefty-righty splits were well documented heading into the year, and while he’s been able to mitigate that as a starter so far this year, lefties are definitely still having more success, which poses a potential problem against the lefty-heavy Yankees.

In his first start against the Yankees earlier this year, he didn’t seem to have a problem with the lineup the Yankees put forward, as he went 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 5 K in a quality start, and if his command is with him, you should expect more of the same from him.

Everything looks good from Sanchez, the stuff is obviously there, command is much better, peripherals support the strong ERA, his batted ball data is fantastic, and he continues to improve every time out. It’s exciting to watch him grow into a legitimate top of the rotation type of starter.

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C.C. Sabathia has gone through a well documented set of trials and tribulations, and while he’s putting a together a decent season while admirably working through his off-field issues, this is another matchup I like for Jays hitters.

His stuff is a shadow of what it used to be, and he’s been getting lucky this year with a deflated HR/FB ratio, which is dramatically helping his ratios. His latest two start against the A’s and Orioles were impressive, going a combined 13 IP, while giving up a single ER, issuing one walk, and striking out 14 batters.

He’s on a roll, but I don’t think you can realistically expect this from him start in and start out. I’m giving the Jays offence a considerable advantage in this one.