Jumping to Conclusions – April Edition

We are a month into the season and have had plenty to talk about, as the Toronto Blue Jays have sputtered out of the gate to start the season.  There have been difficulties hitting, in the bullpen, and elsewhere as the Jays have struggled primarily with consistency.  We will discuss some of those topics from April in this month’s edition of Jumping to Conclusions.

Lack of offense

Lets get the big topics out of the way.  The Blue Jays offensive juggernaut has been slowed down to a snails pace.

For a team that finished in 1st in most offensive categories for the 2015 season, more of the same was expected for this season.  Thus far the teams bats have been dead silent.  So far Josh Donaldson has been the leader and still looks like the league MVP.  Edwin Encarnacion is in a close second  and Jose Bautista is up to his usual tricks as well.

This would lead everyone to think business is as usual among the Blue Jays lineup.  The three mashers have hit 17 homers and collected 55 RBIs in the early going.

Issues may lie deeper, though, seeing some of the Toronto hitters have yet to hit their stride. Is it the rising number of strikeouts?  Could be the lack of base runners.  Edwin Encarnacion has only walked seven times this season where Jose Bautista just keeps on strolling as he has already walked 22 times.  The shocking rise in strikeouts now sits at 240 total and is the 3rd most in baseball.  The biggest reason for the change in the number of strikeouts is Michael Saunders and Troy Tulowitzki.  Tulo has 28 thus far and Saunders is already at 20 also.

Opposing pitching staffs have also changed a ton around the league.  There are formidable aces in the East to start the season as David Price is now in a Red Sox uniform.  There are also younger players stepping up early this season.  For example, Jake Odorizzi is off to a 3.12 ERA through his first 6 starts.

These examples don’t even mention the Kansas City bullpen blue print that is being applied to numerous teams through out the league.  The New York Yankees have Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances in the back end of the game, plus they will be adding Aroldis Chapman when he comes off his suspension.

Things may not be going the Jays way thus far, but this offence is to good to keep down for long.

Next: What is up with the bullpen?

Bullpen issues

The Blue Jays relief corp is of to a horrendous start.  They have let a handful of games slip through their fingers in the early going to the season.  The team’s bullpen currently ranks 19th for ERA and 27th in opposing batting average.  All this is happening while the Jays have the 2nd-fewest innings logged by their bullpen.  They currently reside 29th on the list of bullpen innings with 64.2 innings pitched.

It is great that the starters are logging that many innings to minimize how much the pen has to work each game, but this just amplifies the issues that have been surrounding the pen.  To put the innings pitched number in perspective, the current leader is the Arizona Diamondbacks and they have thrown 108.2 innings thus far.

These numbers bring up some questions and possible answers.  Question one is how can they be performing like this when this was supposed to be a strength to the team?  One theory is that they are stuck in neutral because they have not gotten enough live game work in.  Only Gavin Floyd and Roberto Osuna have eclipsed 10 innings of work so far and they have both been performing well to this point.

The expected setup pairing of Brett Cecil and Drew Storen has only combined for 18.2 innings.  Yes this could be because they simply have not performed well in those innings but its is clear that they need to pitch their way out of the issues.

Storen has been getting slapped around by American League hitters to the tune of a .359 opposing batting average.  Cecil has also been hit around also and owns a .326 opposing batting average.

If the Jays are going to win more games the bullpen needs to iron out some of these wrinkles and get back to basics.  They are allowing too many hits and runs late in the game for the Jays struggling offence to overcome against other solid bullpens.

Next: Help is on the way!

Reinforcements are on the way

The Blue Jays had there share of injuries prior to spring training and have yet to see some of them return.  An offseason shoulder procedure on Devon Travis has left openings for other players to slide into their roles.  Ryan Goins has taken over the majority of starting reps for Travis since last season but the upside of Travis is higher because of his offensive output.

Last season through 62 games and often playing with a bad shoulder, Travis hit .302 with eight homers and 35 RBI.  Ryan Goins has played 25 games in the first month of the season and hitting a .160 with a home run and 4 RBI.

Defensively, Goins is a wizard and has been a great combo for Tulo on double plays.  The issue is that Travis can play solid defence as well and still be productive with the bat.  Having Travis’ production in the lineup will extend the threats for offence in an already potent lineup.  Travis is currently in extended spring training and working toward his return from shoulder surgery.

We all are aware of the bullpen issues but we have been working with some quadruple-A players in the ranks.  These pitchers provide great depth for the organization, but many would not have guessed they would have made the big league club out of spring training.  Franklin Morales was signed by the Jays late and will hopefully be a key contributor once he returns from arm fatigue.  Last season for the Royals Morales provided left handed stability out of the pen and pitched 62.1 innings with a 3.18 ERA.  He also only walked 14 hitters and struck out 41.  These are some numbers that the Jays desperately could use in the back end of games.

The Blue Jays also have Aaron Loup gearing up for his return.  If Loup could regain some of the magic that he had in 2014 where he threw 68.2 innings with a 3.15 ERA the Jays will have a solid pen for the bulk of the season.  It would be even better if Loup can continue to improve his K to walk rate.  In 2014 he allowed 30 walks over 68.2 innings and in 2015 he allowed 7 over 42.1 innings.

There are also some hot hitters in Buffalo at the moment that might have made some Major League teams that are not as deep as the Blue Jays.  Jesus Montero, and Matt Dominguez prior to his promotion, have been lighting up the pitchers in the International League.

Montero just had a 13-game hitting streak snapped and currently has a .322 batting average with 2 homers and 13 RBIs.  Dominguez was raking as well and it earned him a call up to the Blue Jays to be a reserve player.  Prior to the promotion he was batting .311 with two home runs and 14 RBIs.  The Bisons also have former MLB standouts in Domonic Brown and Casey Kotchman along with young talent in Dalton Pompey.  On the pitching side the Bisons have had strong showings from Drew Hutchison, Scott Diamond, and Wade LeBlanc.

The depth of talent in triple-A is rather impressive and the Jays have some key parts coming back in the near future.

Next: Starters have been sitting down opposition