Jumping to Conclusions – April Edition

We are a month into the season and have had plenty to talk about, as the Toronto Blue Jays have sputtered out of the gate to start the season.  There have been difficulties hitting, in the bullpen, and elsewhere as the Jays have struggled primarily with consistency.  We will discuss some of those topics from April in this month’s edition of Jumping to Conclusions.

Lack of offense

Lets get the big topics out of the way.  The Blue Jays offensive juggernaut has been slowed down to a snails pace.

For a team that finished in 1st in most offensive categories for the 2015 season, more of the same was expected for this season.  Thus far the teams bats have been dead silent.  So far Josh Donaldson has been the leader and still looks like the league MVP.  Edwin Encarnacion is in a close second  and Jose Bautista is up to his usual tricks as well.

This would lead everyone to think business is as usual among the Blue Jays lineup.  The three mashers have hit 17 homers and collected 55 RBIs in the early going.

Issues may lie deeper, though, seeing some of the Toronto hitters have yet to hit their stride. Is it the rising number of strikeouts?  Could be the lack of base runners.  Edwin Encarnacion has only walked seven times this season where Jose Bautista just keeps on strolling as he has already walked 22 times.  The shocking rise in strikeouts now sits at 240 total and is the 3rd most in baseball.  The biggest reason for the change in the number of strikeouts is Michael Saunders and Troy Tulowitzki.  Tulo has 28 thus far and Saunders is already at 20 also.

Opposing pitching staffs have also changed a ton around the league.  There are formidable aces in the East to start the season as David Price is now in a Red Sox uniform.  There are also younger players stepping up early this season.  For example, Jake Odorizzi is off to a 3.12 ERA through his first 6 starts.

These examples don’t even mention the Kansas City bullpen blue print that is being applied to numerous teams through out the league.  The New York Yankees have Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances in the back end of the game, plus they will be adding Aroldis Chapman when he comes off his suspension.

Things may not be going the Jays way thus far, but this offence is to good to keep down for long.

Next: What is up with the bullpen?

Bullpen issues

The Blue Jays relief corp is of to a horrendous start.  They have let a handful of games slip through their fingers in the early going to the season.  The team’s bullpen currently ranks 19th for ERA and 27th in opposing batting average.  All this is happening while the Jays have the 2nd-fewest innings logged by their bullpen.  They currently reside 29th on the list of bullpen innings with 64.2 innings pitched.

It is great that the starters are logging that many innings to minimize how much the pen has to work each game, but this just amplifies the issues that have been surrounding the pen.  To put the innings pitched number in perspective, the current leader is the Arizona Diamondbacks and they have thrown 108.2 innings thus far.

These numbers bring up some questions and possible answers.  Question one is how can they be performing like this when this was supposed to be a strength to the team?  One theory is that they are stuck in neutral because they have not gotten enough live game work in.  Only Gavin Floyd and Roberto Osuna have eclipsed 10 innings of work so far and they have both been performing well to this point.

The expected setup pairing of Brett Cecil and Drew Storen has only combined for 18.2 innings.  Yes this could be because they simply have not performed well in those innings but its is clear that they need to pitch their way out of the issues.

Storen has been getting slapped around by American League hitters to the tune of a .359 opposing batting average.  Cecil has also been hit around also and owns a .326 opposing batting average.

If the Jays are going to win more games the bullpen needs to iron out some of these wrinkles and get back to basics.  They are allowing too many hits and runs late in the game for the Jays struggling offence to overcome against other solid bullpens.

Next: Help is on the way!

Starters have been on fire

The Blue Jays starting pitching staff has been off to a strong start.  The rotation has been better than advertised thus far with the lone exception being the typical slow start for R.A. Dickey.

Marcus Stroman has looked every bit like the ace he needs to be and leads the team with four wins and a staff best .95 WHIP.  J.A. Happ has picked up right were he left off with the Pirates, too.  Happ has pitched 32 .2 innings and has only allowed 10 earned runs which gives him a solid 2.76 ERA.  

More from Toronto Blue Jays News

• Blue Jays: Bradley Zimmer has carved himself a valuable role
• Anthony Bass has been the shutdown reliever the Blue Jays needed
• Blue Jays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. open to a long-term contract
• Blue Jays: Snapping cold streaks at the right time
• Who Should the Blue Jays Extend First: Guerrero, Bichette or Manoah?

Marco Estrada is in looking like force he was in the playoffs now that he is healthy and continues his winning ways.  Aaron Sanchez has been everything that would could have hoped for through his first five starts.  He currently owns a 2.59 ERA through 31.1 innings and he leads the team in strikeouts with 29.

The staff has been lights out and is eating a ton of innings through the month of April.  The rotation has pitched the most innings in all of baseball with 164 innings.  This has minimized the amount of wear on the bullpen as they have yet to find their groove.  Another astonishing stat is that they also are ranked 8th among starters in opposing batting average with .238.  This shows that not only are they pitching deep into games but they are missing bats and benefitting from solid defence.

The starting rotation is clearly the MVP of the season so far.