Blue Jays: A look at 8 non-tendered free agent pitchers

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Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

Greg Holland (30)
2015:  44.2 IP  |  3.83 ERA  |  1.455 WHIP

Holland is one of this offseason’s more intriguing cases because there aren’t a great deal of comparable situations to line him up against. One of baseball’s most dominant closers, posting 141 saves since the start of 2012, Holland underwent Tommy John surgery this September and is unlikely to pitch at the Major League level in 2016.

There’s a thought among fans that Holland will be a “steal” or “buy low” candidate, but every single MLB organization would be thinking the same thing. Toronto isn’t going to shock the league by remembering he exists. Being paid to rehab certainly beats rehabbing solo for Holland, so don’t be surprised to see him sign this offseason on a multi-year deal, possibly one that includes a great deal of incentives past the low base salary in 2016.

Assuming that Holland returns in 2017 he’ll still be just 31 years old, and despite the significant challenges that will be facing him, this is the calibre of arm that teams would be willing to take a risk on. In his three most recent healthy seasons (2012-14), Holland produced 7.3 WAR.

His 2015 campaign stayed afloat with a 3.83 ERA and 32 saves, but it was evident throughout the year that something was off as his fastball velocity dropped approximately 2.0 MPH. Eliminating this past season from consideration, Holland owns a career ERA of 2.19 and a 12.5 K/9. This would be a deal where an organization hands the keys to their medical team, but given their current needs, Toronto has far bigger priorities than addressing the 2017 ‘pen.

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