Blue Jays: A look at 8 non-tendered free agent pitchers

Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

The Blue Jays are watching from the sidelines as an expensive relief market begins to thin, but some recent non-tender free agents could emerge as value plays

It’s been a busy stretch of Blue Jays rumors at the MLB Winter Meetings, but there’s been little in terms of action. A market saturated with cash-wealthy organizations and the inflating value placed on MLB bullpens has priced Toronto out of their most needed market thus far, with recent deals to Mark Lowe and Ryan Madson being the tide that raises all boats on the B-level relief market.

Rumors over the past week to ten days have linked the Blue Jays to “impact power arms” and relievers with past closer’s experience. We took a look at several cost-effective options that fit that description last week, but even those free agents have begun to find paydays. The Colorado Rockies scooped up both Jason Motte at $10 million over two years and Chad Qualls at $12 million over two. What a time to be a free agent reliever.

If you can’t be rich in baseball, you’ve got to be creative. The waiver wire and trade market will become more prominent shopping grounds for the Blue Jays, along with the Rule 5 Draft later this week, but some recent non-tender free agents could fill the market with some potential value plays.

Non-tender names don’t often gain the same open market buzz as free agents who have spent the last month on ‘Top 100 Available’ lists, and admittedly they’ve all been non-tendered for a reason, whether it be undesirable arbitration increases or injury. The talent remains present, though, so let’s dive in with eight recently non-tendered pitchers that make some level of sense in Toronto.

We’ll focus primarily on relievers, but throw in a starting pitcher at the end for good measure.

Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Steve Cishek (Age 29)
2015 MLB: 55.1 IP  |  3.58 ERA  |  1.482 WHIP

Starting at the top we have Steve Cishek, who’s been a dominant closer in the not-so-distant past. After being drafted and developed in the Marlins system, the sidearming Cishek posted save totals of 34 and 39 in 2013 and 2014. Stretching across his four most successful seasons in Miami (2011-14), he pitched to a cumulative 2.70 ERA with 10.0 K/9 and 174 of his 249 appearances resulting in a GF.

As you’ve already assumed, the 2015 season wasn’t as kind to Cishek. The first half of the season saw his ERA balloon to 4.50 in Miami over 32.0 innings before a deal sent him to the St. Louis Cardinals in late July. His performance would improve marginally after the trade, but there’s still reason for worry with his peripherals.

For starters, Cishek’s K/9 fell to 7.8 in 2015 after a career high of 11.6 in 2014 and totals of 9.0+ in the three seasons prior. His walk numbers also spiked. Some of this can be linked to a slight regression in velocity, as Cishek lost approximately 1.0 MPH on average off his two primary pitches (sinker and slider). His slider also took a noticeable step backwards, going from a PITCHf/x value of 4.0+ in four straight seasons to a 2015 value of -1.0.

St. Louis made the non-tender call to avoid his $7.1 million salary, and while nobody with a functioning arm will come cheap on this market, he won’t be demanding an albatross ‘pen deal. This match still doesn’t line up logically for me, given the budget limitations and recent inactivity. Rumor has it that the Mets are also interested. If Toronto chooses to quickly adapt to this week’s climate, however, Cishek offers much of what they’re seeking.

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Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Al Alburquerque (29)
2015:  62.0 IP  |  4.21 IP  |  1.548 WHIP

In Alburquerque we have a more traditional non-tender free agent arm. Someone with undeniable flashes of talent, but an unpredictable track record of success coming off a down season. After earning $1.725 million with the Tigers in 2015, Alburquerque was non-tendered ahead of a $2.1 million projected salary.

The future was bright for the right-handed slider machine after a breakout rookie campaign in 2011 at age 25. He quickly emerged as one of the top young strikeout arms in the game, pairing a 1.87 ERA with 13.9 K/9 over 43.1 relief innings. The Dominican native posted an ugly 6.0 BB/9 alongside it, but was able to clean up the majority of his messes.

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It hasn’t always been the case since. Following that season Alburquerque underwent surgery on his pitching elbow for a stress fracture, which would limit him to just 13.1 innings at the MLB level in 2012. He’d then struggle to a 4.59 ERA in a full-time 2013.

The 2014 campaign would be a bounce back with Alburquerque posting a 2.51 ERA and limiting his walks to 3.3 BB/9, a career outlier for him. Then, the pendulum swung back the other way with an ugly 2015. He’s not an unfamiliar bullpen story, really.

By the end of last season, his K/9 had dropped to 8.4, a level that doesn’t sustain his control issues as well as those strikeouts once did. Strangely enough, his PITCHf/x data shows that his slider usage dropped significantly in 2015 to 55.6%, a full 12.0% down from the year prior. While the value of the pitch remained a relative plus, his fastball continued a slow regression in velocity and became a negative pitch.

Herein would lie an opportunity to catch an iffy arm at the right time and the right price. Steamer Projections have Alburquerque coming in at a 3.66 ERA in 2016 with a WAR just barely above replacement level, but in terms of “boom” potential, he’s a prominent name. The “bust” comes along with that, of course, but such is the nature of shopping in the discount aisle.

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Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

Greg Holland (30)
2015:  44.2 IP  |  3.83 ERA  |  1.455 WHIP

Holland is one of this offseason’s more intriguing cases because there aren’t a great deal of comparable situations to line him up against. One of baseball’s most dominant closers, posting 141 saves since the start of 2012, Holland underwent Tommy John surgery this September and is unlikely to pitch at the Major League level in 2016.

There’s a thought among fans that Holland will be a “steal” or “buy low” candidate, but every single MLB organization would be thinking the same thing. Toronto isn’t going to shock the league by remembering he exists. Being paid to rehab certainly beats rehabbing solo for Holland, so don’t be surprised to see him sign this offseason on a multi-year deal, possibly one that includes a great deal of incentives past the low base salary in 2016.

Assuming that Holland returns in 2017 he’ll still be just 31 years old, and despite the significant challenges that will be facing him, this is the calibre of arm that teams would be willing to take a risk on. In his three most recent healthy seasons (2012-14), Holland produced 7.3 WAR.

His 2015 campaign stayed afloat with a 3.83 ERA and 32 saves, but it was evident throughout the year that something was off as his fastball velocity dropped approximately 2.0 MPH. Eliminating this past season from consideration, Holland owns a career ERA of 2.19 and a 12.5 K/9. This would be a deal where an organization hands the keys to their medical team, but given their current needs, Toronto has far bigger priorities than addressing the 2017 ‘pen.

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Ryan Cook (28)
2015:  8.2 IP  |  18.69 ERA

Don’t gasp too loudly at Cook’s 2015 numbers, as they’re a microscopic sample and don’t represent the earlier years of his young career. In fact, he was a fairly serviceable relief arm for the Oakland Athletics for three years, posting back-to-back 1.5 WAR’s in 2012 and 2013.

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Even including the ugly blast of 2015 numbers, Cook’s career ERA over 207.0 Major League innings sits at 3.43 with an impressive 9.1 K/9. After being dealt to the Boston Red Sox mid-season last year, he was briefly claimed by the Chicago Cubs one month ago before being non-tendered.

Cook offers the traditional arsenal of a fastball, slider and changeup with a maximum velocity that sits around 95 MPH. While he’s experienced some inconsistent levels of success year-to-year with the heater, his slider has been consistently strong with approximately 25% usage.

Perhaps his struggles between the AAA and MLB levels in 2015 are indicative of something larger for Cook (not sure about that), but he represents the type of arm that could provide sneaky value without blowing the bank. He’s unproven in a back-end role, but that’s not the only hole that needs to be filled. An arm like Cook would fill the Liam Hendriks or LaTroy Hawkins spot nicely.

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Cesar Ramos (31)
2015:  52.1 IP  |  2.75 ERA  |  1.338 WHIP

Here’s another interesting one, as Ramos did nothing to earn his non-tender after pitching a full season to a 2.75 ERA. This also gave the former Tampa Bay Rays pitcher a career high 0.6 WAR, so with his career lefty-on-lefty OPS of .633, there will surely be a market.

Toronto fans should be relatively familiar with Ramos, whose four years in Tampa Bay combined for a 3.66 ERA. The majority of his work came as a reliever, though the Rays did use him for seven starts throughout 2014. Ramos was projected to earn $1.7 million from the Angels in arbitration.

The addition of a capable left-handed relief arm could appeal to the Jays for two reasons, the first of which is the uncertain nature of Aaron Loup following a horrible (and unlucky) 2015. Another southpaw would also remove any lefty-bias from the usage of Brett Cecil, freeing him to play a strict setup or high-leverage role.

Like every reliever around age 30 that we’ll discuss over the next month, Ramos has begun to lose a little juice on his fastball which now only rests around 90 MPH. He also leans frequently on his slider as a secondary offering, which can be his most effective pitch when it’s on.

Though he and Ryan Cook are coming off entirely different 2015 seasons, they’re in the same conversation. Arms with the ceiling potential to be competent 4th-5th bullpen arms at a low cost.

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Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Juan Nicasio (29)
2015:  58.1 IP  |  3.86 ERA  |  1.560 WHIP

Here’s a target for those of you still heartbroken over the departure of Liam Hendriks. Nicasio spent his first four Major League seasons with the Colorado Rockies, making 69 starts and 19 relief appearances en route to a 5.03 ERA. It flat-out wasn’t working, but after a trade to the Los Angeles Dodgers last offseason, Nicasio discovered some serious velocity in a full-time bullpen role.

In adding nearly 2.5 MPH to his average fastball velocity, Nicasio found his way to a fairly respectable season out of the bullpen with a 0.9 WAR. The Dodgers chose to non-tender him instead of facing his projected $3.1 million arbitration number, but for a 29 year old pitcher who’s new to the gig, maybe there’s some room to go before his ceiling.

Granted, the bump in velocity didn’t do his control any favours. His K/9 shot to 10.0, well above his career average of 7.4, but his BB/9 also jumped to 4.9 from a career average of 3.4. For the first time in his career, however, he allowed a HR/9 under 1.00, with a fantastic 0.2 mark.

This velocity spike breathed some life into a fastball that had ugly, ugly value towards the end of his Rockies tenure. It also turned his slider into a plus pitch that shows potential for growth if he can sustain the recent changes.

Toronto’s experience with Hendriks in 2015 is mostly a fluff link, and his control remained excellent even while adding velocity, but at the very least it gives the Jays a level of hands-on familiarity with Nicasio’s transition and situation.

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Mike Minor (27)
2015:  Did not pitch

I’ll include lefty starter Mike Minor on the back end due to how tantalizing his talent can be when healthy. The former 7th Overall selection of the Atlanta Braves underwent surgery last May to repair a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder. Although he’s yet to resume a full throwing program, there is optimism that he will be fully ready for Opening Day.

So add Minor to a group including Cliff Lee and Henderson Alvarez that could offer an MLB team a high-profile starting option for some, or all, of the 2016 season. For Minor, it’s all about recapturing his 2012-2013 form.

In those back-to-back seasons of 30 or more starts, Minor established himself as an up-and-coming lefty in the league. The 2012 season saw him post a 4.12 ERA over 179.1 innings with a clean WHIP, which rolled into his excellent 2013. Minor started in 32 games that year, crossing the 200.0 IP plateau with a 3.21 ERA and 3.5 WAR.

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The issue with starting pitchers, especially those of the Minor and Lee conversation, is that competing for a fifth spot may not seem all that appealing to them. Perhaps Lee would be more easily lured to Toronto if he’s chasing a ring on his way out, but Minor would be wisest to target a pitching-starved team in a pitcher’s ball park to help re-establish his value. Toronto’s rotation isn’t great, but I assure you there are staffs worse off than this one. His 1.1 HR/9 may not play up well in the Rogers Centre coming off a shoulder surgery, either.

Regardless, we’ve fielded a great deal of questions on these starting options. With the Blue Jays reported to still be involved in that market, these names, like many of the non-tendered free agents we’ve just discussed, do sit closer to the price level Toronto appears to be shopping at.