Blue Jays rotation gets no love from Steamer Projections in 2017

Steamer Projections prognosticated bloated earned run averages and a less than complimentary season for the Toronto Blue Jays starting rotation in 2017.

Steamer Projections is a projection based system for baseball statistics utilized by the likes of Fan Graphs among others. They recently released their 2017 forecast with some less than hopeful forecasts for the 2017 Toronto Blue Jays starting rotation. Take what you will with these as we all know at the end of the day they are just predictions. However, here are some of them for interest sake.

I have a sneaking suspicion you will not be impressed by the Sanchez/Happ and Estrada numbers that Steamer somehow dug up and predicted for 2017.

Pitching Staff:

Aaron Sanchez 12-11, 4.00 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 3.0 WAR in 202 IP.

J.A. Happ 11-11, 4.17 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 2.4 WAR in 184 IP.

Marco Estrada 9-10, 4.69 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 1.5 WAR in 165 IP.

Marcus Stroman 11-9, 3.69 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 3.2 WAR in 166 IP.

Francisco Liriano 9-8, 3.95 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 2.0 WAR in 138 IP.

Mat Latos 5-6, 4.64 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 0.7 WAR in 91 IP.

I find it very interesting that Stroman and Liriano were the only two pitchers in the starting

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rotation with an ERA south of four. It’s hard for me to swallow so much regression from Sanchez, Estrada, and Happ especially after all the growth Sanchez displayed last season. If the numbers play out anywhere close to the projections it will be a very disappointing 2017.

The projections hardly reflect a rotation that some feel is close to being the best in the majors.

Here is a look at the projections for the rest of the Blue Jays squad.

Bullpen:

Roberto Osuna 3-3, 3.43 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 0.9 WAR and 33 saves in 65 IP.

Jason Grilli 3-3, 3.85 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 0.4 WAR in 65 IP.

Joe Smith 3-3, 3.90 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 0.3 WAR in 55 IP.

J.P. Howell 3-3, 4.09 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 0.1 WAR in 55 IP.

Joe Biagini 4-4, 435 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 0.5 WAR in 71 IP.

Danny Barnes 2-2, 3.67 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 0.5 WAR in 45 IP.

Aaron Loup 2-2, 3.53 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 0.3 WAR in 40 IP.

Ryan Tepera 2-2, 3.93 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 0.2 WAR in 35 IP.

Mike Bolsinger 2-2, 4.38 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 0.5 WAR in 36 IP.

Glenn Sparkman 1-1, 3.94 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 0.2 WAR in 30 IP.

Bo Schultz 1-1, 4.29 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 0.0 WAR in 15 IP.

The most surprising regression in the bullpen would be the Biagini projection. On the flip-side Steamer likes the chances of Loup and Barnes finding their way and bouncing back in 2017.

Starting Lineup

Devon Travis .274 BA, 13 HR, 54 RBI, 6 SB, .738 OPS, 1.8 WAR in 524 PA.

Josh Donaldson .275 BA, 31 HR, 93 RBI, 4 SB, .889 OPS, 6.1 WAR in 638 PA.

Jose Bautista .249 BA, 27 HR, 78 RBI, 3 SB, .855 OPS, 2.5 WAR in 532 PA.

Kendrys Morales .266 BA, 24 HR, 80 RBI, 1 SB, .800 OPS, 0.8 WAR in 549 PA.

Troy Tulowitzki .260 BA, 20 HR, 67 RBI, 1 SB, .774 OPS, 2.8 WAR in 504 PA.

Steve Pearce .260 BA, 16 HR, 50 RBI,  2 SB, .800 OPS, 1.3 WAR in 371 PA.

Russell Martin .229, 17 HR, 55 RBI, 3 SB, .730 OPS, 2.5 WAR in 470 PA.

Kevin Pillar .275 BA, 10 HR, 57 RBI, 13 SB, .718 OPS, 2.8 WAR in 530 PA.

Melvin Upton Jr. 229 BA, 11 HR, 40 RBI, 12 SB, .688 OPS, 0.2 WAR in 350 PA.

Ezequiel Carrera .253 BA, 4 HR, 24 RBI, 7 SB, .672 OPS, 0.0 WAR in 252 PA.

Steamer really likes the chances of Pillar having a nice season with the stick. I almost agree with most of the offensive predictions other than I think Morales and Joey Bats will clear the fences more than they project in 2017.

Next: Addressing Concern’s over Rowdy Tellez’s Bat

What are your thoughts on forecasted numbers?