Why the Blue Jays have dominated in hitter’s counts

There’s a myth floating around Toronto baseball Twitter right now that the Jays’ offense is lifeless, can't hit for power and just isn't dangerous.

That myth is eaxctly that: a myth.

The actual numbers tell a completely different story that reveals this team might just be a couple of tweaks away from becoming the most lethal offense in the American League.

And it all starts with one number: two.

Two balls. That’s the count.

When the Blue Jays get to any count involving two balls (2-0, 2-1, 2-2) their stats are among the best in baseball. Why? Because this team can grind.

So what's the issue?

Simple. They’re not punishing pitchers with power when they’re ahead in the count.

Note: all stats are through Monday's games.

Why the Blue Jays have dominated in hitter’s counts

Let's say that again. The Blue Jays are elite when behind in the count, and hitting for average in many counts... but oddly conservative when ahead. That’s like having a Ferrari and only using it to drive your kid to school.

Through the first month of of the season the Blue Jays are putting together a masterclass in plate discipline. You hear it every broadcast: "Grinding out at-bats," "tough outs," "competitive approaches." And it’s true. Statistically, the Blue Jays are one of the best teams in baseball when the odds are stacked against them.

1-2 count? .245 average, which is the second-best in MLB.

1-1 count? .244, which is fifth-best.

2-0 count? .298, which is in the top-10.

Those stats aren't random. They show a team that can fight, sees pitches and doesn’t panic when they fall behind.

That's evidenced in the Blue Jays' offensive stats as a whole, as they rank above league average in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging across a wide range of counts. That shows us this team is built to hit.

But here’s the issue. When the Blue Jays ahead in the count (2-0, 3-1, 2-1) they aren’t doing nearly enough damage. They’re playing for contact when they should be hunting home runs. Despite their top-5 offensive efficiency in hitter-friendly counts, the Jays are way behind the league in home runs and slugging percentage in those situations.

How does that make any sense?

It’s like driving 50 mph in the fast lane with a Lamborghini. Sure, you’ll get there, but you're not using it right.

It's time for the Blue Jays to swing a bit differently

Let’s go deeper.

In 2-0 counts, Jays hitters are hitting .308 AVG with a 769 OPS... but are only slugging .462. That trend carries over to 2-0 counts (.462 slugging), 2-1 counts( .326) and 2-2 counts (.309) as well.

In 1-1 counts, they have a .353 average and a more impressive .559 slugging. In a 3-1 count (the best count for a hitter), they're unsurpisingly hitting .529 with a 1.666 OPS.

But despite those eye-popping numbers in average, they rank near the bottom third in total home runs in favorable counts. That’s not a talent issue. That’s an approach issue.

Controlled aggression is the missing ingredient

What this offense needs is not more patience, it’s more intent. When they’re ahead in the count, they need to go into attack mode. Turn that 2-0 into a two-run bomb. That 2-1 pitch into a thunderclap off the WestJet Flight Deck.

And here’s the thing: They can afford to do it. If they miss or fall behind, they're a team that can recover. Their league-leading success in 1-2 counts gives them the luxury of being able to be aggressive early. It's a weapon, and they need to start taking advantage.

New hitting coach David Popkins has already installed an approach that gives guys freedom to be creative with their approach at the plate. You can see it in the numbers. Strikeouts are down and the number of pitches seen plate appearance is up. Guys like George Springer and Bo Bichette are doing exactly what they’re being asked to do.

But now it’s time for Phase 2: Swing with intent. Not all the time. Not recklessly. But in the right counts (2-0, 2-1, 3-1) this team should be swinging to do damage.

Because if you’re one of the best in baseball when the count’s not in your favor... Imagine how dangerous you could be when it is.

Bottom Line

This Blue Jays team is good, but if it they want to be great, they'll need stop getting out-homered by the Rays and out-slugged by the Orioles

The Blue Jays havee mastered the art of survival at the plate, now they need to start hunting.