Why didn’t John Schneider stick to what has worked for the Blue Jays during ALCS?

Coming off a well-executed, convincing Game 4 win in the ALCS, one would think the Toronto Blue Jays would stick to what worked for them for any future games. Whether it be leaving in the starter when they are rolling like Max Scherzer, or bringing in your lockdown closer in Jeff Hoffman early to shut down the most potent part of the Seattle Mariners’ order. Those moves turned out perfectly for the Blue Jays in their eventual 8-2 win.

However, when the similar situations presented itself the very next night in Game 5 of the ALCS, it appeared as though Blue Jays manager John Schneider wanted to take the playbook and throw it all out the window and it unfortunately blew up big time.

Why didn’t John Schneider stick to what worked previously for the Blue Jays in ALCS Game 5?

During the bottom of the sixth inning, Blue Jays’ ace Kevin Gausman was still cruising against the Mariners, having retired eight of his last nine batters, including the first two hitters in the sixth. But after a Randy Arozarena walk, Gausman was given the hook by Schneider at 91 pitches.

Reliever Louis Varland came in and promptly walked Eugenio Suárez to put two runners on base. Fortunately, Varland got the next batter to ground out to end the threat. Schneider and the Blue Jays may have dodged a bullet right there, but he sure couldn’t in the fateful eighth inning.

In Game 4, even with the Blue Jays up 8-2, Schneider took no chances with the Mariners’ lethal lineup by putting in Hoffman to hold Arozarena, Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez at bay. The Blue Jays closer responded with a perfect 1-2-3 inning with two huge strikeouts.

However, in Game 5, with Toronto up just 2-1 and the heart of the Mariners’ order due up once again, there was no Hoffman in sight as the struggling Brendon Little and subsequently Seranthony Domínguez was brought in to deal with the toughest part of Seattle’s lineup. Lo and behold, a Raleigh home run and a Suárez grand slam later, it was 6-2 Mariners and game over for the Blue Jays.

For one, when facing your opponents best hitters, you got to go with your best pitcher. Forget about matchups, analytics, handedness or whatever, you have to go with Hoffman, who has been lights out since September for the Jays.

On top of that, we had just all witnessed how Hoffman disposed of the Mariners hitters quickly just the night before. Why couldn’t he be given the ball again in Game 5? Especially with the day off on Saturday, Hoffman could have even gone for the six-out save to seal the deal. Schneider was asked about not using Hoffman and he told reporters it was to make the Mariners, "see different guys."

As a result, the moral of the story is don’t break what’s working. But with Schneider’s surprising, yet somehow predictable decision, instead of celebrating a huge third consecutive win, the Blue Jays will now go home on the brink of elimination down 3-2 in the ALCS.

It’s a hard lesson learned, but hopefully it's not something that will be repeated over the final two games. Otherwise, the Blue Jays won’t be just going home to Rogers Centre, but home for good for the 2025 season.