Which Blue Jays could regress in 2025?

While the Toronto Blue Jays had a bit of a down year in 2025, there's still a decent amount of players on the roster who are coming off superb 2024 campaigns — some of whom even produced career years.

But that could end up working against some players this year, as it could be a challenge for them to repeat their strong performances.

As a result, let’s take a look at four Blue Jays players that could be due for a regression in 2025.

Which Blue Jays are due for a regression in 2025?

José Berríos 

After spending the previous couple of seasons in the shadow of team ace Kevin Gausman, Berríos rose to the occasion last season and was perhaps the Jays’ most reliable starter.

Berríos was one of the few Blue Jays' pitchers who had a good season. He put together a strong 2024 campaign in which he registered a career-high 16 wins to go along with a solid 3.60 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with 153 strikeouts in 192 1/3 innings pitched.

There were still some worrisome trends in his game, however. Berríos’ FIP was an alarming 4.72 and his home run per fly ball rate was at 15.0 percent. Those were both his highest numbers in the category since his rookie season in 2016. Add in a low BABIP of .256 and perhaps Berríos’ success was more about luck than anything else.

As a result, Steamer projections has the 30-year-old right-hander regressing a bit in 2025 with an 11-12 losing record and a bloated 4.29 ERA. Berríos is a key member of Toronto's bullpen, so any drop in success from him could hurt Toronto's chances of making the postseason.