What's at stake for the Blue Jays and this player after surprising contract decision

He likes us. He really, really likes us!

It's been just under a week since Shane Bieber decided he wanted to have a second shot at winning in Toronto and exercised his contract option to remain with the Blue Jays in 2026. The $16 million deal will get the 30-year-old through the 2027 season on a team friendly deal, in the hopes that he can cash in big time the following year.

But this put some pressure on both the Blue Jays and Bieber to make 2026 a fulfilling season for both the player and the franchise.

What's at stake for the Blue Jays and this player after surprising contract decision

It's easily one of the more shocking moves that will take place this entire offseason. Bieber could have hit the open market going into his age-31 campaign as one of the best arms available. He showcased that he's still got tons in the tank coming off Tommy John surgery, and while he did give up the World Series winning home run to Will Smith, he was phenomenal throughout both the postseason and regular season.

When compared to the rest of the field, Bieber is projected to be right up there with the best of the best in terms of his statistics this season. Via FanGraphs he's slated for a 3.86 ERA and 3.77 FIP. Numbers that line up with Michael King and Brandon Woodruff, while those stats are better than what is projected for Shota Imanaga and Merrill Kelly.

While his numbers project to be slightly behind the perceived top three of Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease and Ranger Suàrez, it's not by much and if teams were to miss out on any of those players, they could have been turning to Bieber as their next best fit. Which ones again, feels like Bieber may have left some money on the table as each of those guys is likely to make more than even the qualifying offer of $22-million.

But that may also be a reason as to why Bieber decided to take the security of that $16-million deal - because the market is front loaded and he could run the risk of being left out in the open waters with no one offering him a higher AAV. It may have been unlikely, but why take the risk when that money is already on the table especially if there is an impending lockout coming up ahead of the 2027 season.

It does mean that Bieber is betting on himself to try and prove he is capable of making that happen. It's also entirely possible that the Blue Jays and Bieber are working beyond the scenes on something long-term and have asked him to pick up the option for now while they negotiate on something longer term.

Kevin Gausman is set to hit free agency after 2026, and José Berrios has an opt out that year as well, leaving the only guaranteed arm in the rotation at years end being Trey Yesavage. If they can get a long-term deal done with Bieber, that gives them at least one more guy they can pencil into their rotation after '26.

The Blue Jays also have some extra revenue money floating around after going all the way to the seventh game of the World Series and they haven't bee shy about tying their revenue back into their teams payroll. One would think they continue with that philosophy this offseason and the $16 million almost feels like a discount for a pitcher like Bieber.

They have to show him, and the rest of the league, that 2025 wasn't a fluke and that they want to make the Blue Jays a perennial contender. With the money they have saved on the Bieber deal, they should be feeling some pressure to reinvest those "savings" into a long-term deal with Bo Bichette or another star player or two that will deepen the roster and maximize their competitive status.