What happens next if the Blue Jays actually sign Tarik Skubal

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: there is a big free agent on the open market, and the Toronto Blue Jays are apparently serious suitors for their services. 

First it was Shohei Ohtani, then it was Kyle Tucker, and now it's Tarik Skubal. The Blue Jays are reportedly one of the six teams set to meet with him and his representation in person. That already has the rumour mill running wild. None of this is new. 

But what if the Blue Jays do sign Skubal? It’s not the most likely scenario; he’s probably going to re-up with the Los Angeles Dodgers or join the New York Mets on a record-breaking megadeal. Still, it could happen—and things might get weird if it does. 

Skubal needs little introduction as the winner of two Cy Young awards. He’s arguably the best pitcher in the entire sport, and likely on track to make the Hall of Fame if he continues to pitch at this level over the next few seasons. He’s as good as it gets. 

If Skubal tells the Blue Jays he wants to come to Toronto, they need to get it done. He’s too good to not sign if a deal is actually within reach. However, announcing a megadeal for Skubal would certainly raise eyebrows considering the team’s biggest need is a bat (or several). 

There is zero doubt Skubal will want to eclipse Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s $325 million contract and become the highest paid pitcher in the sport. He probably wants to set the record for highest average annual value, too, which would put him around $45 per year. He’s probably looking at something along the lines of an eight-year, $360 million deal. 

How much more room would the Blue Jays have to spend if they added $45 million to their 2027 payroll? Their luxury tax figure already sits around $228 million with several arbitration-eligible players due for raises. Adding Skubal at a figure in that price range probably gets them up to $275 million after finishing 2026 at roughly $315 million. 

Can the Blue Jays also add a bat if they sign Tarik Skubal? 

President and CEO Mark Shapiro already said he expects a similar level of financial support from ownership. If that’s true, the Blue Jays probably still could afford to add a bat like Seiya Suzuki if he winds up in the range of a $25 million AAV. However, that would probably put them right on the edge of where they can be after arbitration. 

Even if the Blue Jays did manage to add Skubal and Suzuki, they would still have needs in the bullpen and infield. Last year’s offence was more than a Suzuki away from being good. They also desperately need a left-handed reliever—and those are never cheap. 

A trade would probably be necessary to create some financial flexibility. Could any team be persuaded to take on José Berríos or Anthony Santander if the Blue Jays included a decent prospect? Perhaps if they ate some of the money, but paying someone not to play for your team is never a comfortable feeling for an organization. 

Still, this would be a good problem to have to work through. Landing Skubal would cement the Blue Jays as a true force to be reckoned with in free agency in the same tier as the Dodgers or Mets. It would also give them arguably the nastiest one-two punch in baseball atop their rotation alongside Dylan Cease. Sign the man first, then figure it out later.

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