Was Scherzer's thumb injury a blessing in disguise?

The extended rest that 41-year-old Max Scherzer got to open the season, while recovering on the IL with a right thumb injury, may have been exactly what he needed. Now, he’s looked every bit like his vintage self, with velocity that screams the thumb is no longer an issue.

Scherzer was initially brought in during the offseason to fill the hole of the fifth man in the rotation, but he has proven that he still has shades of ace potential, considering how special he has been this month. In August, he's thrown to a 1.80 ERA throughout 25 innings, while striking out 17. On top of that, he has twirled five straight quality starts during a time when the Blue Jays need to keep their foot on the gas.

Was Scherzer's thumb injury a blessing in disguise?

His most recent performance (August 19th versus Pittsburgh) was yet another example of why Mad Max has been so impressive in 2025. Although he ran up the pitch count in the first few innings, he finished his six-inning performance (104 pitches) while allowing just one earned run. During his outing, he struck out four and generated nine whiffs, primarily on his slider, while bringing home his 220th career win.

That recent start vs Pittsburgh marked his fourth straight start pitching at least six innings and allowing no more than two runs, his longest such streak since 2022. Post-game, Scherzer admitted that his stuff wasn't all there, but he was still able to execute the crucial pitches. "I didn't allow a big inning to happen. When things did get sideways, I kept it to one," Scherzer said.

Although "he may run you through a brick wall if you tell him to rest" (a quote from Joe Siddall during a recent Jays Journal interview), it may be what's allowed him to perform so strongly, as he was shelved for nearly three months. Scherzer's average velocities on every single one of his pitches in 2025 tell a compelling story.

To start, Scherzer is throwing his four-seam fastball 47.2% of the time, his highest mark in six years. He has reached an average velocity of 93.8 mph on the pitch, which is higher than the prior three years. His velocity trending upwards on his fastball has resulted in an opposing batting average of .167, which is worth noting as in the last five years, opponents have batted .262, .255, .212, .193, .264, against that pitch, respectively. That being said, it is important to keep in mind that this years' sample size isn't as large.

His velocity has also ticked up on his other pitches, including his deadly slider, which has an impressive put-away rate of 25.8%. The slider is currently averaging 86.5 mph on the radar gun, which is his highest average velocity since his 2016 CY Young award-winning season.

Scherzer's changeup (85.1 mph), cutter (87.8 mph), and curveball (76.7 mph) have all notably increased in velocity as well, which again, could be a result of the thumb injury being a blessing in disguise. Increased velocity is a great sign on its own, but he has been able to put everything together, especially as of late.

Once again, these numbers are not stretched out over his usual 150-plus inning span that fans saw in his prime, but it's pretty damn impressive to see Max Scherzer dominate in 2025. When he was signed in the offseason, it seemed as though he was brought on to fill the hole of the fifth man, but he is pitching more like an ace.

On Wednesday's broadcast, Dan Shulman mentioned that Scherzer was raving about how great his thumb felt, which is incredible to hear, considering how blunt he was about his constant setbacks while shelved on the IL. A healthy Scherzer is an absolute treat to watch, and he is making a compelling case to make a playoff start in game one.