Updated Top 100 prospects list shows the volatility of falling in love with 'untapped potential'

The latest release of MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 prospect list is a reminder of just how volatile the prospect world can be, and why General Managers, and baseball fans, should be wary of falling in love with those players. A year ago, Ricky Tiedemann and Orelvis Martinez were touted as cornerstones for the future of the Toronto Blue Jays. Now, neither name is on the list.

That being said, there's no need to take that as a sign that they have vanished entirely from baseball relevance. Instead, it shows all of us the nature of prospect rankings: they are snapshots, never guarantees.

Prospects don't always become valuable Major League assets

Let's start with Tiedemann, who has been shelved for over a year now. Tiedemann's hype began when he was selected in the third round of the 2021 MLB Draft, out of Golden West College in California. In the following year, Tiedemann torched the minor leagues, while splitting his time between three minor league levels.

In 2022, he finished with a 2.17 ERA in 18 games (78.2 innings) while striking out 117 batters. By the time 2023 was wrapped up, he was still dominant but showed some slight regression, posting a 3.68 ERA across a few more stops in the minor leagues, including one outing in Triple-A Buffalo. 2024 for Tieidemann was plagued with injuries.

He's battled injuries all season, which was nothing out of the ordinary for him, but he first officially landed on the injured list in late April 2024 with left elbow inflammation. He then returned to Triple-A Buffalo in July but left his first start after one inning, resulting in a full Tommy John surgery. Fast forward to 2025, and you'd find Tiedemann continuing his rehab, which was confirmed by Keegan Matheson in a recent interview with Jays Journal.

Although Tieidamann's early career with the Blue Jays has been frustrating, Matheson remains hopeful. "Even if the worst-case scenario is that you shorten him up as a reliever, that’s still pretty fun, man. He just pushed his body too far," says Matheson.

Orelvis Martinez, on the other hand, stands as a completely separate case of why you shouldn't fall in love with prospects too quickly. He has simply halted his offensive production post-suspension, which is hard to watch as a fan since he was signed in 2018 with aspirations of being a major power bat at the big league level.

In 2025, Martinez is slashing a mere .184/.290/.364 with a .654 OPS and 13 home runs in 89 games. Although he's still been able to drive 13 balls over the wall, his production has been significantly reduced, as he hit for a .267 AVG and 17 home runs in 2024 at Triple-A. After receiving the call to the show in mid-June of 2024, Martinez lasted only a game (one hit in three at-bats) before getting popped for PEDs, yet another reason why the prospect journey is far from linear.

Long story short, prospect lists are easy to fall in love with because they signal promise, high upside, and the idea of what a prospect can be in the best-case scenario. In reality, that 'promise' is fragile, as they stall out and regress in many cases. That double-edged sword, though, can result in massive returns in trades, as seen most recently from the Toronto Blue Jays.

The trade of prospects Juaron Watts-Brown, Khal Stephen, Kendrys Rojas, and Alan Roden at this year's trade deadline brought in proven big-league contributors down the stretch, which proves that the Blue Jays feel the need not to hold on to prospects too tightly.

Prospect value can swing wildly from one season to the next. Ricky Tiedemann and Orelvis Martinez’s current position can be used as prime examples.