Twins’ A.J. Minter addition only reinforces Blue Jays’ smart Louis Varland gamble

The Minnesota Twins are going for it. Their acquisition of A.J. Minter from the New York Mets late on Thursday night is exactly the kind of deal contending teams should be making. The Twins need bullpen help, big time, and getting Minter for a pair of prospects Bruin Agbayani and Billy Amick is a good price to pay for a guy who has been very effect in a late inning role this season.

Minter has posted a 2.35 ERA with 20 strikeouts and just two walks in 23 appearances this season. Underlying metrics show he hasn't been truly elite with a 4.02 FIP and a lower strikeout rate than expected, but the Twins just need to add some more reliable options for Manager Derek Shelton to go to.

The Toronto Blue Jays were in this position last year, and interestingly enough, they turned to the Twins to upgrade their bullpen. The Blue Jays dealt prospects Kendrys Rojas and Alan Roden to land Louis Varland and infielder Ty France on July 31. It's a move that one year later still looks great for the Blue Jays, and has put the Twins in the position they are in now.

Varland ranks third among MLB relievers with 73 strikeouts and has allowed just 11 runs, six earned, across 55 innings. That works out to a 0.98 ERA and a 1.51 FIP. These are truly elite, closer numbers. This wasn't something he was doing while he was with the Twins - he was a serviceable arm, but he has truly reached another level in 2026.

Nobody really saw this kind of production coming and so you can't really blame the Twins in 2025 for making that deal. But it's probably something that could have really changed their outlook on 2026.

The Twins’ relief corps has pitched to a 4.93 ERA, ranking 26th in the majors, while allowing a .305 BABIP against, which ranks 27th. For a team sitting within striking distance of both the division and the Wild Card race those are problems they are trying to solve at the deadline, hence the Minter move. Had Varland still been with the Twins though, they may have been in an even better position.

Blue Jays look like clear winners of the 2025 deal at this point, but it could even out

The other side to this deal is that neither Roden, not Rojas has truly helped the Twins in 2025, but there is still lots of room for these guys to grow. Rojas has shown promise in limited action, posting a 2.51 ERA and 3.56 FIP across 11 appearances, including four starts, and he could eventually become part of Minnesota’s rotation picture. Roden, however, has struggled in a small sample, hitting .189 with a .415 OPS through 16 games with the Twins.

If feels like the Blue Jays gave up a legitimate pitching prospect in Rojas, and they may not love watching him develop elsewhere, but one huge benefit for them is that Varland isn't a free agent until 2031. Having Louis locked up for that long adds so much value to the Blue Jays side of this equation.

As Minnesota tries to patch together its relief corps with a pending free agent, Toronto’s gamble on Varland looks less like a risk and more like one of the smarter bullpen bets the team has made.

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