Trey Yesavage’s possible return highlights just how badly Blue Jays’ rotation has unraveled

The Toronto Blue Jays may be close to getting Trey Yesavage back on the mound, but at this point in the season, how much sense does it actually make?

Yesavage is reportedly scheduled to start for Toronto on Monday in what would be his first major-league outing since undergoing meniscus surgery in August. According to Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet, the Blue Jays could get roughly 45-50 pitches over three innings from him, with Spencer Miles potentially available to follow. Toronto is also planning a bullpen day built around Spencer Arrighetti on Sunday.

Yesavage sounded ready earlier this week after a rehab outing, telling Shi Davidi of Sportsnet that his surgically repaired knee felt “really good” and that he was prepared for his next appearance to come with the Blue Jays. “It's up to people that are higher up than me and make decisions,” he said. “But I think I'm ready to go and take some stress off the bullpen.”

That difficult part about this is that the team is still technically chasing a playoff spot but they are running out of time and the games are suddenly becoming less meaningful.

After dropping two in a row to the Texas Rangers, Toronto sits three games back of the final Wild Card spot with only seven games left to play. It comes down to the risk versus the reward and what this team can realistically gain from asking Yesavage to ramp back up.

A few days ago, it felt like a Yesavage return could have been a huge boost. But the Blue Jays have gone 4-6 in their last 10 games. An abbreviated start from a pitcher coming off knee surgery might not be enough. Yesavage may be better off shutting things down, easing off the gas pedal and coming into camp at 100 per cent instead of pushing himself.

Sure, it’s never over until it’s over, and saying Yesavage is not coming back would be deflating. But this is where the long-term outlook has to be weighed against the short-term urgency, and the short-term picture does not look especially pretty.

If anything, ending the season while debating whether to squeeze one more start out of Yesavage feels like a fitting snapshot of the Blue Jays’ year. For all the pitching depth they appeared to have, they have spent much of the season trying to piece together a rotation rather than actually running a competent five-man unit.

Blue Jays have rarely had five capable starters on a regular rotation

That has been one of the biggest detriments of the entire season, and it has certainly caught up with the Blue Jays in the last month. Since the start of September, the starting staff has posted a 4.48 ERA, ranked 16th in MLB, and a 4.67 FIP, ranked 22nd. Even those numbers only tell part of the story. By this point, the Blue Jays have been operating with something closer to a three-man group while everyone else tries to cover innings every other day.

The listed game by game starters shows this was not just a September problem, either. Toronto did not make it through three consecutive turns with the same five starters in the same order at any point this season.

The Blue Jays opened the season with Kevin Gausman, Dylan Cease, Eric Lauer, Cody Ponce and Max Scherzer from March 27-31, but changes were needed immediately. Mason Fluharty started April 4, and Ponce was gone for the season after suffering an injury just three innings into his first start. Before the Blue Jays could even complete a second clean turn through the rotation, they were already patching holes.

From April 25 to May 4, it looked like the Blue Jays were settling in, using Gausman, Cease, Lauer, a recently signed Patrick Corbin, and a returning Trey Yesavage. But the fifth spot changed when Spencer Miles started May 10 instead of Lauer as the Blue Jays experimented with an opener ahead of the lefty.

Gausman, Corbin, Cease and Yesavage started to become the normal four-man group, but the fifth spot kept turning over between Braydon Fisher, Adam Macko and Miles, with Lauer given a couple of starts as well.

In late June and early July, Shane Bieber returned and suddenly the Blue Jays had a five-man group that consisted of Gausman, Corbin, Cease, Bieber and Yesavage. But they didn't get the results they needed. from Gausman’s start on June 19 to Yesavage’s start on June 29, the Blue Jays went 3-7 to put themselves 10 games below .500, and Fisher took Corbin’s spot on July 1.

July was easier to manage by comparison. Gausman, Cease, Bieber and Yesavage were taking regular turns, but there was still no settled fifth starter as Corbin's struggles put him in the bullpen before his season ended due to injury. Miles started twice, Fisher popped up again on July 22 and Scherzer returned on July 27.

When they finally lined up Gausman, Scherzer, Bieber, Yesavage and Cease, it seemed like it was too little too late, although that stretch showed what could have been possible with those five over the long haul. From July 25 to August 3, those five made nine starts and the Blue Jays went 6-3.

Then the trade deadline arrived, and even that brief glimpse of stability evaporated. Jameson Taillon took Gausman’s start on August 5, and José Soriano joined the group for his first start on August 7. At that point, the Blue Jays technically had six scheduled starters, which should have felt like a blessing. Instead, Yesavage, Taillon and Bieber were all hurt within a span of 16 days. Yesavage hit the IL after his start on August 4. Taillon followed on August 10. Bieber made his last start on August 20.

From there, the rotation effectively became a three-man group of Cease, Soriano and Scherzer, with Miles, Spencer Arrighetti, Fisher and Fluharty trying to fill the gaps.

For a team that spent the offseason building what looked like an excess of starting pitching, that is a damning outcome. Over 162 games, the Blue Jays rarely operated with a true five-man rotation and even if Yesavage returns on Monday, it might once again be too late to matter.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow