These August numbers show how good the Blue Jays could've been with a mediocre offense

One of the more frustrating aspects of the 2026 season for Toronto Blue Jays fans has been watching their team flounder offensively. In 2025 they led the league with a .332 OBP, tied for the second highest wRC+ (113), had the third highest OPS (.761) and finished eighth with a .298 BABIP. 2026 season isn’t that they were buried from start to finish.

They also were tops in the league in several of those categories with Runners in Scoring Position - leading to 798 runs scored overall, the fourth most in baseball. Unfortunately, they have spent most of the year nowhere close to replicating those kinds of numbers. And then, all of a sudden, August happened.

The Blue Jays didn’t suddenly go back to being an offensive powerhouse. They didn’t turn into the Dodgers, Braves or Yankees overnight. They basically became competent. For one month, Toronto’s lineup looked close to average, and that was enough to make the club look much more like the team fans thought they were getting before the season started.

In August, the Blue Jays posted a .706 team OPS, which ranked 16th in MLB. They also scored 115 runs, tied for 16th. There were still not great. They were not even especially good. They were almost exactly middle of the pack and that brings home the point. A league-average offense could have changed the entire complexion of this season.

Instead of fighting for their playoff lives, a league-average offense might have put the Blue Jays more comfortably inside the AL Wild-Card standings. They may not have been nine games above .500 entering Friday's action like the Boston Red Sox - but remember, the Red Sox were 37-47 on June 30, with a +1 run differential. They managed to straighten things out and now have a five game lead over the third Wild-Card spot.

From March/April through the end of July, Toronto had a .684 team OPS, which ranked 29th in baseball. Their 433 runs scored ranked dead last. The difference between that and mediocrity was not even that massive.

The Tampa Bay Rays ranked 16th in runs scored over that same stretch with 482, only 49 more than Toronto. The middle of the league in OPS was around .722, with the Athletics and Tigers sitting in that range. That gap represents roughly one extra run every few games.

What makes it even tougher to stomach is that the Blue Jays were not being dragged down by every part of the roster. Through the first four months, they produced 7.0 defensive WAR and 11.8 pitching WAR. Those numbers were good enough to keep them afloat despite an offense that was actively pulling them backward. Toronto’s offensive WAR over that span sat at -40.2, paired with a 92 wRC+.

Even more frustrating was the fact the Blue Jays were not a reckless, swing-and-miss-heavy offense. Through the first four months, they struck out only 791 times, the second-lowest total in MLB behind the Rays. Making contact was not the main problem, the issue was what happened around that contact.

They had the third lowest hard hit percentage of 32% and their .280 BABIP was ranked 22nd. Toronto also walked only 299 times, the second-lowest total in the league, with a 7.3 percent walk rate. They were putting the ball in play, but they were not consistently getting on base, extending innings or creating enough traffic for when they eventually got bigger swings.

August did not completely fix that flaw. Their strikeout numbers were still fine, with 199 punchouts, the sixth-fewest in the league, and their walk rate remained almost the same at 7.7 percent. The bigger difference was that they finally started turning contact into base runners and run production. Toronto’s August OBP jumped to .317, which ranked 15th in MLB, after sitting at .305 through the first four months, 28th in baseball.

Some key Blue Jays' players turned up their production in August

Alejandro Kirk was one of the biggest reasons for that shift. After injuries limited him to 123 plate appearances and a .231/.309/.339 slash line through the first four months, Kirk looked like a completely different hitter in August. Across 102 plate appearances, he hit .341/.412/.534 with five home runs, 20 RBI, a .946 OPS and a 160 wRC+. His 11.8 percent walk rate and 8.8 percent strikeout rate gave the lineup the kind of production they needed out of some of their core players.

Brett Bateman also helped the turnaround. He was still in the Cubs’ minor-league system for the first four months while Daulton Varsho handled centre field duties and hit .260/.306/.396 with a 92 wRC+. Once Bateman arrived, he gave the Blue Jays a different look. In August, he hit .333/.384/.410 over 88 plate appearances, good for a .794 OPS and 127 wRC+.

George Springer’s August completely turned around his season. Through the first four months, Springer hit .235/.319/.402 with a 105 wRC+. In August, he pushed that to .321/.370/.488 with two home runs, 11 RBI, an .858 OPS and a 141 wRC+.

None of those individual improvements turned the Blue Jays into an elite offense on their own. All it did was move the Blue Jays up the chains a little bit. For one month, the Blue Jays got an offense that ranked 16th in OPS and 16th in total runs and it led them to a 17-11 record, the fourth best record in MLB.

The August numbers are encouraging, but they are also an indictment of everything that came before them. They show that the Blue Jays didn't actually need their offense to be special for them to put together a much more respectable season. Now they are hoping that that offense can help salvage the remainder of this season.

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