Hindsight is always a great view, and that's exactly where we must go in order to look at a potential underlying cause of the Blue Jays' inability to land big fee agents. It's likely that money, location, and other factors you see discussed regularly are all distractions from a deeper underlying problem. Players don't seem to want to play in this organization anymore, and that wasn't always the case. Here we look at three potential reasons for that, and how to turn it around fast.
3 off-field concerns holding Blue Jays back
3. You're Not Billy Beane and This Isn't Moneyball
The reality here is that the decision making was flawed well before we started to see the struggles of this offseason's missed opportunities. You can go back to the premature termination of Charlie Montoyo, the decision to let Marcus Semien walk, and the moment the organization came out and told the world how heavily they were leaning into analytics, which was met with very mixed reviews.
It's widely known that most athletes expect a balanced approach to analytics where a "feel for the game" is mixed with data insight into best options, as Jake Peavy and Brian Kenny said in this conversation in June. But there's no doubt that the Blue Jays give off a major "analytics before gut instinct" vibe that players likely turn their nose up at.
It can be assumed that the same over-reliance on the data is leading to decisions like trading for Daulton Varsho, in spite of him having some serious struggles against the fastball. Yes, his defence and athleticism is a plus all around, but he has failed to provide the kind of power from the left side of the plate that the analytics predicted he would be able to bring. That sting only gets worse as we continue to see the performances of Moreno and Gurriel Jr. since departing, That trade could be its own article, so let's move on.
Would it shock anyone if Corbin Burnes were to say that the Berrios decision factored into his choice? The only way to change this perception fast might be to change the people that make these decisions. Otherwise, it will take a long time to demonstrate the shift needed.
2. Elite Players Need to Be Trusted to Be Elite
We all remember the moment. Jose Berrios, in a must win game, pitching a shutout, looking good, and the list goes on. I'll never forget watching the skipper walk out and saying out loud that, "It's just to get him some rest and get the bullpen some more time, he won't pull him."
Narrator: He pulled him.
The whole league saw this move and it, combined with comments after about the "numbers" saying it was the right decision, will go down in infamy. And, as the great actor Jonah Hill once said in Superbad, "People don't forget."
Let's be real. This move, and the words that came in the days after, are reflective of a broader environment of not trusting your players. Furthermore, there's a high likelihood that this was the beginning of the end of Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. feeling like this was a place where they could win long-term.
The worst part is, anyone who's watched games since then has seen odd combinations of similar moves blended with total opposite decisions that hurt player confidence and performance. We all watched last year as players were moved too high (or low) in the order, not moved when they should have been, pulled from the game for defense, put into the lineup on odd days, or weren't in the lineup for extended stretches despite success.
Every move has rationale, but any free agent can look at this club right now and see the decision-making as unpredictable at best and confidence-killing at worst.
If you trust your people, and let them cook, it's a lot more likely that the Juan Sotos of the world will get excited about the things they could do with your club.
1. Player Development and Culture
These two are grouped together because they go hand in hand in demonstrating why someone may, or may not, want to join an organization.
The Blue Jays have gone from José Bautista almost bringing down the Rogers Centre with a towering home run, to taking away the home run jacket years later in favour of a more serious approach to the game, to bringing the jacket back, and everything in between (see the flip-flopping decision making comments above).
On the other side of the coin, when taking talents like Bichette and Guerrero out of the equation, the player development charts don't paint a pretty picture.
Even going back to '92 and '93, those teams had swagger, attitude, and fun. They took players that were good and helped them be great, players that were average and helped them be good, and let superstars be superstars. The current version of the Blue Jays doesn't have an identity to speak of, and they aren't making players better. Pete Walker continues to work magic on pitchers regularly, sure, but there is so much meat left on the bone in a farm system that is already ranked low. Player development must become a real priority in a way that makes the league take notice.
It's time to return to fun, swagger-filled baseball. It's time to bring back the days of having a couple guys on the roster that make noticeable improvements in their time in Toronto. These things make people want to come, they make people want to stay, and they build a culture that an entire country can be proud of.