Shane Bieber’s injury concerns should force Blue Jays to look elsewhere for pitching upgrades

The Shane Bieber trade was a calculated gamble that paid off in 2025. General manager Ross Atkins acquired him while he was still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, hoping he would be healthy for the stretch run, which he ultimately was.

The real variable at the time of the trade, however, was whether Bieber would exercise his $16 million player option for 2026. It seemed unlikely after the season given his performance, but he surprised everyone by accepting it shortly after the World Series wrapped up. 

Unfortunately, the rationale behind Bieber’s decision became clear when he started this season on the injured list. A week-to-week diagnosis turned into a multi-month absence. When Bieber finally returned, it took him weeks to recapture his 2025 form—then he got hurt again just as he was hitting his stride. 

Bieber is still a good pitcher when healthy. The problem is that his health is a massive question mark, and the Blue Jays need more sure bets in their 2027 rotation. 

Does Shane Bieber have anything left in the tank? 

After Toronto surprisingly held onto Bieber at the 2026 trade deadline, there was a short stretch where he pitched like someone they should absolutely re-sign. 

His performance on August 20th was his best as a Blue Jay: seven shoutout innings against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. He punched out seven while allowing just three hits to the eventual American League East champions. He held the New York Yankees to just one run over six innings in the outing before that. 

Unfortunately, Bieber landed on the injured list following that masterpiece against the Rays and never took the mound again. It was further proof that his body can no longer handle the rigours of a 162-game season. 

Since the beginning of 2023, Bieber has pitched 236 regular-season innings. That’s roughly 20 more than Sandy Alcantara of the Miami Marlins has thrown this year alone. Alcantara is a vintage workhorse, but this nonetheless illustrates Bieber’s inability to take the mound every fifth. 

A team with tons of starting pitching depth should absolutely take a flyer on Bieber this offseason. Unfortunately, the Blue Jays do not currently meet that description. 

Right now, they only have Dylan Cease, José Soriano, and Trey Yesavage as trustable arms projected to be in the 2027 rotation. Cody Ponce was already an unknown and is now coming off a season-ending leg injury. José Berríos, meanwhile, is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and has been in decline for several years. This group desperately needs a proven innings eater. 

The good news is that between Cease, Kevin Gausman, and Chris Bassitt, Atkins has excelled at signing proven starting pitchers in free agency. A reunion with Gausman would make a ton of sense, especially as the fourth guy behind the big three. His current Chicago Cubs teammate Shota Imanaga could also be a great match as a much-needed southpaw.

It’s not the deepest free agent class, but the Blue Jays will have options if they’re willing to spend money. They should just ensure that money doesn’t go to Bieber—his health is a risk they can’t afford in 2027. 

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