Royals starters Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo are looking less like realistic Blue Jays trade targets

If the Toronto Blue Jays get to the MLB trade deadline within striking distance of a playoff spot, they'll likely be targeting starting pitching. They currently rank 17th in MLB in team ERA (4.39) and 13th in FIP (4.14) so there is some room for improvement there.

They are currently delpoying a five-man unit that consists of Kevin Gausman, Dylan Cease, Trey Yesavage, Shane Bieber and Spencer Miles. However, Bieber has an ERA at 9.00 (9.34 FIP) and Miles has mostly been in a swing man role, though it seems like he's being groomed into a full-time starter with more of an eye of that being a possibility in 2027. Right now, the Blue Jays are arguably stronger having him in the bullpen.

For the stretch run, there likely isn't an internal solution coming like Yesavage did last year. Although Nolan Perry is moving pretty quick through the minors. However, it seems like the trade market is going to be flush with starting pitching and two options that made a lot of sense for the Blue Jays were Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo, two of the pitchers who currently make up the Kansas City Royals rotation. In recent days though, the Royals have started to throw cold water on the idea of those two moving anywhere, unless it's for a haul coming back in return.

The Royals currently sit in last place in the AL Central and nine games out of a Wild Card spot. According to reports, the Royals are willing to listen on both Wacha and Lugo, but they are also signaling to teams that their asking prices will be extremely high.

Wacha is the more logical Blue Jays fit of the two. He is making $18 million this season, is owed $14 million next year, and has a club option for 2028. He has also been the better pitcher this season, giving Kansas City a ton of innings while keeping his ERA below 4.00. He does not overpower hitters, but his command, pitch mix and ability to work deep into games would appeal to almost any contender looking to protect its staff over the final two months.

The issue is that Wacha is 35 and his expected numbers suggest some regression risk, and his profile is built more on contact management than swing-and-miss dominance. It just means the Blue Jays would have to be careful about paying for the idea of Wacha as a frontline answer when he is more realistically a dependable third or fourth starter.

Lugo finished as a Cy Young runner-up not long ago, but since then his recent performance has been less convincing. His ERA has climbed, his expected numbers are concerning, and he will be 37 next season while still carrying significant money on his deal. Over the last two years he's pitched to a 4.32 ERA with a 19.7% strikeout percentage. Add in his reported full no-trade clause, and the Blue Jays would just seem to be in an uphill battle to make this work.

Blue Jays would have plenty of other avenues to explore if they want to steer clear of Wacha and Lugo

On paper they both look like good fits. If Cease, Yesavage and Gausman pitching at the top of their game, the Blue Jays don't need an ace, just someone they can be confident in giving the ball to every fifth day to give them some quality innings. And Blue Jays' GM Ross Atkins loves to acquire players who have some more term left on their deals when he gets them. But for the price the Royals are asking for, the Blue Jays are better off acquiring a top of the line guy.

Joe Ryan, Reid Detmers, Casey Mize, Sonny Gray, and Robbie Ray all stand out as players that are likely to give the Blue Jays better results down the stretch. The Blue Jays also used a fair bit of their prospect capital at last years deadline and so this year becomes crucial when trying to make sure they don't overpay for an under performer.

But all of this also only matters if the Blue Jays can get to the deadline with their heads above water - or at least closer to that prospect than they are now.

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