Projecting a best-case scenario for Max Scherzer's 2025 season with Blue Jays

How much does he have left in the tank? 40-year-old Max Scherzer, who will be 41 in August, is set to anchor the back end of the rotation for the Toronto Blue Jays after agreeing to a one-year deal worth $15 million.

It’s a lot of money to give to someone who threw just 43.1 innings last season, but the Blue Jays clearly liked what they saw after a reported throwing session Scherzer hosted earlier in the week.

Toronto, and their fans, are hoping Scherzer can give them more than 43.1 innings. In fact, they’re probably hoping he can triple that number in 2025. If the future Hall of Famer can give Toronto 129 innings of quality ball this coming season, they should take it as a victory, especially from their number five spot, where they had mixed success last season. In 2024, Toronto rolled out a combination of Yariel Rodríguez, Bowden Francis, Alek Manoah, Ryan Burr, Trevor Richards, and one start from Paolo Espino.

Francis is certainly still in Toronto's 2025 rotation plans; the rest may not be.

Projecting Max Scherzer's 2025 season after Blue Jays pounce

FanGraphs and Baseball Reference are projecting slightly different outcomes for Scherzer, with FanGraphs suggesting he will pitch three times as often as he did in 2024. They have him listed at 128 innings, with a 3.97 ERA, 9.41 K/9, 133 strikeouts and a 1.38 HR/9 rate. Baseball Reference also thinks he’ll be just as effective, with a 3.71 ERA, 9.2 K/9 rate and 1.3 HR/9 rate, though they believe he'll do it in fewer innings. According to B-R's projection, they see Scherzer topping out at 97.0 frames with 99 strikeouts. FanGraphs also dug a little deeper, suggesting Scherzer will hold opponents to a .236 Batting Average Against and .285 BABIP.

If the projections are to be believed, then the Blue Jays have done a great job of solidifying the back end of the rotation. Before the signing, Toronto had Rodríguez slotted in as the No. 5 starter, with FanGraphs projecting him to throw 125 innings over 18 starts (but 51 total appearances) while pitching to a 4.08 ERA. They believe Manoah, Jake Bloss, and Adam Macko would make up the remaining starts, throwing a combined 176.2 innings.

What a healthy Scherzer does is take on the bulk of that workload from Rodríguez, who can then concentrate on being a power arm out of the bullpen. The signing also allows Bloss and Macko to continue to develop in the minors, and lets Manoah recover from his elbow surgery at his own pace without feeling rushed. If Scherzer can get those 128 innings and come close to matching some of those projections, he would finish in the rotation with the second-best ERA (3.97 behind Kevin Gausman’s projected 3.89) and second-best BABIP (.285 behind Bowden Francis’ .284), topping the rotation with his 9.2 K/9 rate (ahead of Gausman’s 9.01).

Aside from the prospects of helping the Blue Jays to a successful season, Scherzer will also be chasing some personal accolades. He’s 93 strikeouts away from 3,500 for his career, and if he can reach that projected 133, he would surpass Walter Johnson and Gaylord Perry on that list (although he will have to contend with Justin Verlander, who also signed a one-year deal, and is currently 10th on the list).

Even at 40 years old, he’s got the makeup to fit right in with this current squad, and he’s got the experience and the ‘winning attitude’ to spark this team. While the issue of health and longevity will be a question that’s constantly brought up during the season, the Blue Jays have been very efficient with the health of their starters over the last few years. Hopefully, that continues, allowing Scherzer to reach his ceiling.