With latest failure, it’s time for the Blue Jays to end the Ross Atkins experiment

Just like that, the Blue Jays season ended with a whimper, and they’re out of the playoffs. While many pundits will point to the analytics-driven decision to remove $131 million starter José Berríos from the game in the top of the 4th inning after only 47 pitches, the Wild Card exit was a microcosm of all that ailed Toronto this season: baserunning blunders, only one run on a combined 3-for-14 with runners in scoring position, an inability to hit elite pitching, and lack of attention to detail.

For a season that started with so much promise - preseason predictions of postseason success, a top ten payroll, and the 30th anniversary of the 1993 World Series champs, Blue Jays fans had high expectations for 2023. Those hopes were dashed, with the Minnesota Twins sweeping Toronto 2-0 in the ALWC, and extending the Blue Jays postseason losing streak to seven games.

After another early exit from the postseason, its time for the Blue Jays ownership to change the direction of this franchise. The Jays are 0-6 in Wild Card games since the current competitive window with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette opened in 2020; they cannot squander the final two years with that core under team control.

In the interest of continuity, it’s time to promote current Blue Jays Vice President of Baseball Strategy (and former Houston Astros General Manager) James Click to GM, and quickly. Too many important decisions need to be made early this offseason to wait.

Current GM Ross Atkins hasn’t built a successful World Series contender in Toronto. All he’s built are pretenders. As hard as it is to admit, the 2023 Jays had a flawed and mediocre offence: they ranked 16th in baseball on home runs and RBI, 14th on runs scored, and 11th on OPS.

Their regular season run differential of +75 was the lowest of any AL postseason team, only better than Arizona of the 12 MLB playoff teams. Which should also lead to offseason questions about hitting coaches Guillermo Martinez and Hunter Mense, as well as hitting strategist Dave Hudgens.

They had the 4th most grounded into double plays (GIDP) and the 4th least sacrifice flies; and, after a season where they ranked 12th with a .260 batting average and 20th in terms of OPS at .730 with runners in scoring position, they didn’t hit when it counted most in the postseason, going 2-for-9 with RISP in game one, and 1-for-5 in game two, only scoring one run in the two losses.

Atkins’ Resume

When Alex Anthopoulos decided to leave the Blue Jays organization after being named baseball’s Executive of the Year by Sporting News following the 2015 season, newly hired team president Mark Shapiro looked to his old front office for a replacement.

But instead of hiring one of the key architects of Cleveland’s baseball operations side like his successor as president Chris Antonetti, newly promoted GM Mike Chernoff or assistant GM Derek Falvey (now president of baseball operations and architect of the current Minnesota Twins), he hired Ross Atkins, their vice president of player personnel.

Atkins had a 15-year career in Cleveland’s front office after retiring in 1999 following five seasons as a pitcher in their minor league system. They first hired Atkins in 2001 as assistant director of player development, and he was promoted to vice president of player personnel after the 2014 season. Over that time, Cleveland won one AL Central division title in 2007, and made two playoff appearances; they lost to Boston in the 2007 ALCS, and lost the 2013 ALWC to Tampa Bay.

In now eight seasons as GM of the Toronto Blue Jays, the teams he has built have yet to win a World Series. In fact, the Jays have more 3rd and 4th place finishes in their division under Atkins (6) than they do playoff game wins (5 games in 2016 with a team whose core was built by his predecessors).

Combined with his 15-years in Cleveland’s front office with Shapiro, that makes 23 seasons without any World Series appearances by teams employing Atkins in their front office. The Jays regular season record under Atkins over his eight seasons is 609-585 for a .510 winning percentage.

That’s not to say Shapiro deserves to lose his job. He’s overseen the successful renovations of the spring training complex in Dunedin, and the ongoing renovations of Rogers Centre. He also helped rebuild attendance numbers to 3,021,904 in 2023 after league leading declines in both 2018 and 2019, with average home game attendance up to 37,307 in 2023 from a low of 21,606 in 2019.

He’s also successfully celebrated the Blue Jays rich history and past stars, as evidenced by a moving ceremony for José Bautista when he joined the Blue Jays’ Level of Excellence. And let’s not ignore that he’s convinced owner Ed Rogers to spend commiserate with the GTHA’s (and Canada’s) size as the fourth largest market in MLB after NY, LA and Chicago, which all support two teams.

It’s Time to End the Ross Atkins Experiment

Given the inability of the baseball operations side to get the alchemy right on building a World Series championship team, it’s time to hire someone who can. For example, current Blue Jays VP of baseball strategy James Click, who oversaw a Houston Astros roster that put up a 230-154 record (.599), two AL West pennants, three ALCS appearances, two World Series and the 2022 World Series championship in his three seasons as Houston Astros GM.

The move to promote Click should be done as soon as possible given some key decisions are imminent. He will have to hit the ground running as the Blue Jays have some key players who are pending free agents, including Hyun Jin Ryu, Matt Chapman, Brandon Belt, Kevin Kiermaier, Whit Merrifield and Jordan Hicks.

According to the NY Post, MLB’s qualifying offer will rise to approximately $20.5 million for players on the upcoming free-agent market from $19.65 million last year. Should the Jays make a QO to Chapman to at least guarantee draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere?

The GM will also have to weigh trying to sign free agent replacements for Ryu, Belt, Kiermaier, Merrifield, Hicks and Chapman if they aren’t resigned. With a free agent class that includes Shohei Ohtani and Cody Bellinger, as well as starters Blake Snell, Aaron Nola and likely Eduardo Rodriguez - who can opt out of his contract, there are some good options.

Or, will the Jays try to get younger (and cheaper) by promoting top prospects like Davis Schneider, Ricky Tiedemann, Orelvis Martinez, Addison Barger, Spencer Horwitz, Cam Eden and Alan Roden?

What will the team do with starter Alek Manoah, who will likely be a key offseason reclamation project after serious regression in 2023? Will they finally get players like Guerrero Jr., Manoah and Kirk to improve their offseason conditioning program to the point where they can show up to spring training next February ready for the grind of another 162 game schedule?

And can they finally sign some of their young, homegrown core to long term contract extensions that buy out some of their potential free agent years?

It shouldn’t be lost on Jays fans that Atkins’ predecessor, Alex Anthopoulos, is building a Hall of Fame resume with the Atlanta Braves. His Braves teams have won six consecutive NL East titles, the 2021 World Series championship, and are currently the odds on favourites to win the 2023 World Series.

Anthopolous has also signed seven of his core players to long term contract extensions, whereas the Blue Jays currently only have José Berríos, Kevin Gausman and George Springer signed through the 2026 season. Bo Bichette and Vlad are both potential free agents after the 2025 season, as are Cavan Biggio, Chris Bassitt, Jordan Romano, Tim Mayza and Erik Swanson.

Atkins is on his third manager in eight seasons, with John Gibbons, Charlie Montoyo and John Schneider all unable to guide the team on the field to deep postseason runs. He has also clearly empowered his analytics group to be involved in key ‘in game’ decision making, like pulling Berríos after 47 pitches.

As Sportsnet 590 The FAN’s Jeff Blair told Sportsnet Central host Ken Reid, “it’s almost as if the only scenario they didn’t prepare for was ‘José Berríos coming out and dealing’?” It was likely GM Ross Atkins who enabled his analytics group to be so involved in that decision, which now looks inexcusable.

The roster he assembled for 2023 was also one of the oldest in MLB at almost 30 years of age on average, and his successor will inherit another three years on the 34-year old George Springer contract with an AAV of $25 million, plus will have to try and sign Bichette, Guerrero, Alejandro Kirk, Danny Jansen, Romano, Daulton Varsho, Mayza and Swanson to longer term extensions.

Blame the hitters?

Blaming the players for their failure to go deep in the postseason is also too simplistic. For example, the 2021 team had two of the three AL MVP finalists, three Silver Sluggers, and the AL Cy Young winner. They scored the third most runs in MLB that season (846) and had a run differential of +183.

Yet, that 2021 team finished in 4th place in the AL East and out of the postseason, mainly because the bullpen blew nine saves and lost 14 games with a 4.51 ERA from May 1st ~ June 30th. GM Atkins had planned his bullpen around Kirby Yates, Tyler Chatwood and Rafael Dolis. Inevitable injuries exposed the lack of relief pitching depth, and Atkins tried to make do with Chatwood and Dolis. Luckily Jordan Romano took advantage of that chaos and pitched his way into the closer’s role.

Trades That Destroyed Value

There have also been value-destroying trades, whether it be not realizing fair value for lefty J.A. Happ, 2015 AL MVP Josh Donaldson, or for 1.5 years of control of Marcus Stroman. Fans have legitimate reason to question the trade of promising young catcher Gabriel Moreno and Lourdes Gurriel Jr., for 27-year old Daulton Varsho. Moreno and Gurriel Jr., put up a combined bWAR of 7.3 in Arizona this season versus 3.9 for Varsho. Also Nick Frasso, currently the 4th ranked prospect in the LA Dodgers system (#69 overall per MLB Pipeline) was traded last year for Mitch White, who was DFA’d July 30th.

While Varsho’s defence added value with a DRS of +29 and OAA of +10, the 23-year old Moreno is no slouch on defense either, with a DRS of +20 and the 7th best catcher pop time to 2B at an average of 1.90 seconds, which has become much more relevant with the return of stolen bases thanks to the new MLB rule changes in 2023. As if to punctuate matters, Moreno hit a 425 foot home run in game one of the Diamondbacks’ NLWC series win over the Brewers.

In the end, James Click and Alex Anthopoulos both have recent experience building a World Series Championship roster; Ross Atkins does not. And given the window of contention with Guerrero Jr., and Bichette is closing fast, with both players potentially free agents after the 2025 season, it’s time Mark Shapiro recognizes that this team isn’t going to win a Championship with Atkins as GM. It’s time to end the Ross Atkins experiment and give James Click the job.