With Japanese ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto posted, how could he fit on the Blue Jays?
There's always a risk when signing a player making this transition, but this one just might be worth the gamble.
Is Yamamoto a possibility for the Jays?
Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the consensus top pitching name in the 2024 MLB free agent class after a standout career in Japan's NPB that left some wondering if he's the best Japanese pitcher ever. On Wednesday, it was announced that Yamamoto has been posted and teams will be able to negotiate with his representatives over the next 45 days.
Sportsnet's Ben Nicholson-Smith recently stirred the pot on the possibility of the Blue Jays landing a top free agent pitcher which figures to include Yamamoto.
Early this winter Blue Jays showing real interest in some big names, including top free agent pitchers per sources. Bats still Jays’ priority, but they’re keeping possibilities open. Active in trade market, too.
The fit is not obviously apparent for Yamamoto on the Blue Jays. You can never have enough starting pitching, but for a team that is returning almost all of the starters that made up a stellar rotation, it would be a significant investment in a strength rather than a weakness. It can be assumed that signing Yamamoto would come with trading a starter for offensive help. That might mean departing with Alek Manoah or Yusei Kikuchi whose contract is up at the end of the 2024 season.
The contract predictions vary for Yamamoto but most seem to believe he'll wind up with more than $200M plus the posting fee to the Orix Buffaloes. It would likely be a seven-plus-year deal as Yamamoto being just 25 positions him well in a market where most free agent pitchers are 30 and up.
Yamamoto would be a landmark signing for the Blue Jays. Ross Atkins and company would need to outbid the Mets, Dodgers, Red Sox, Yankees, and more who all figure to be interested in Yamamoto's services. The contract would surpass the $150M that made George Springer the highest paid Blue Jay ever. Beyond the question of if it's possible, is it worth it?
Yamamoto's Repertoire
Frame and Size
Yamamoto is very undersized for a pitcher and stands at just 5-foot-10 and is listed at 176 pounds. This leads to some obvious concerns about his durability given that most MLB pitchers are 6-foot-2 or taller. Despite this, he has an impressive track record of health and has proven he can handle a full starter's workload. He has also shown he can hold his velocity and stuff deep into starts. The wear and tear of an MLB season can be difficult but it's fair to be project him for 170-180 innings annually, even at his size.
Fastball
What he lacks in size he makes up in arm talent as his fastball sits at around 95 MPH with lots of fun traits. The right-hander gets below-average extension toward the plate but throws from a low release height with a flat vertical approach angle that enhances the deception of the pitch. When you account for the standout carry (induced vertical break) on his fastball and its strong arm-side run it is immediately apparent that it is a plus pitch - or better - from a stuff perspective. He throws his fastball around half the time and there's an argument to be made that it's his best pitch. Japanese hitters struggled to make good contact on his fastball but the whiff rate was not as impressive as you might expect. There's two schools of thought here; one is that his fastball simply does not play up to it's strikeout potential; while the other more positive outlook is that the raw data is so good that an MLB organization should have no issue tweaking it to find more swing and miss. A fastball that gets lots of swings and misses is the framework of most of the best MLB starters so this will be of chief concern to interested teams.
It is true that NPB hitters are more contact-oriented than MLB hitters so you'll often see a Japanese pitcher come over and see an uptick in strikeouts. This does not seem to apply to fastballs as the miss rate tends to go down when Japanese pitchers come stateside. One hypothesis for this is that the NPB has a lot less high velocity arms than MLB so the Japanese arms that throw hard enough to come over tend to find that their fastball does not stack up as well as it used to. This often works the other way with secondary stuff. NPB hitters tend to be less aggressive than MLB hitters and therefore they are less willing to chase breaking balls and offspeed offerings which tend to get swing and miss. NPB hitters are also much more familiar with the splitter than MLB hitters given it's usage in their league. Kodai Senga saw a large uptick in whiff rate on his splitter/forkball when he came over and his fastball swing and miss rate stayed below average. Yamamoto's fastball grades out as significantly better than Senga's but this is an example of the general trend.
Splitter
Like a lot of Japanese pitchers, Yamamoto throws a great splitter. It sits at around 90 MPH and was excellent at getting weak contact on the ground as well as swings and misses. From a stuff and results perspective it grades out as a plus pitch and it will likely be his main secondary offering. It's not quite the standout pitch that Senga's splitter/forkball is but it's definitely a good pitch for him.
Curveball
Yamamoto throws a slow 77 MPH curveball with sharp, late break. It's a really pretty pitch to watch as he can get hitters to buckle and freeze on it. He is able to land it for a strike with more consistency than you might expect given the standout spin rate. An MLB organization might opt for trading some break for more velocity as a pitch like this does not grade out well from a Stuff+ perspective. He throws it 15 percent of the time and is willing to use it in a lot of different counts. There's a chance he backs off his curveball a bit in the States in favour of his sweeper (more on that later).
Cutter
His cutter sits in the low 90s and it functions as more of a weak contact inducer than anything. It's below average metrically but has it's use against righties and to set up his other pitches. He throws it around 10 percent of the time.
Sweeper
He'll mix in a sweeper very rarely. This may have the attention of MLB teams as it already grades out as an above-average pitch in a vacuum and it would make a lot of sense for him to throw it more in MLB. A lot more hitters bat left-handed in Japan than in MLB and this makes a right-handed pitcher throwing a heavy platoon offering like a sweeper an unwise decision. Perfecting his sweeper would give him another good swing and miss offering against righties which would be a significant boost to a potential area of weakness. It would not be all that surprising to see an organization make this change as a lot of early analysis on Yamamoto identifies this pitch as an area of untapped strikeout potential.
Command/Control
Yamamoto commands all of his pitches well and has incredible walk rates in Japan. He has an athletic delivery and should continue to have plus command and control in MLB. The balls used in MLB are different than in the NPB and this often leads to Japanese pitchers losing a bit of command and control when they come over to MLB especially early on. There is no easy way to evaluate command statistically but there is for control. Here's a table with the BB/9 (walks per 9 innings) of some of the major Japanese pitchers to come over. Only full seasons are included.
Pitcher | NPB Posting Year BB/9 | MLB Debut Year BB/9 | NPB Career BB/9 | MLB Career BB/9 |
---|---|---|---|---|
Kodai Senga | 3.0 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 4.2* |
Yusei Kikuchi | 2.5 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 3.4 |
Shohei Ohtani | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.2 |
Yu Darvish | 1.4 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 2.9 |
Kenta Maeda | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 2.6 |
Masahiro Tanaka | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 1.5 | ? | 2.1 | ? |
Every case is different and there's a lot of factors at play here for each pitcher. That being said, it's very likely that Yamamoto will not maintain his 1.5 BB/9 this year in MLB. It would be safe to project around a 2.3 BB/9 in his MLB debut season before he stabilizes around a 2.1 BB/9 which would be in line with his NPB average and still be around the 90th percentile in MLB.
Consensus
When coming from a league in a dead-ball era with a different schedule, different ball, no shift restrictions, and far worse power hitters it would be foolish to ignore that there's risk here. Yamamoto certainly has good stuff but Senga, Darvish, Kikuchi, Ohtani, and Imanaga all struck out more batters in their respective posting years. Pitchers can succeed in a variety of ways but something like contact management has not proven to be as predictable of a translation to MLB as strikeouts and a lot of Yamamoto's game is about keeping the ball on the ground and in the park. This sounds like a pessimistic outlook for an obviously incredibly talented pitcher but it's all in the perspective of his $200M+ price tag. Typically a foreign pitcher comes at a discount and that will not be the case here as you're paying him on the assumption that he is a top pitcher in MLB. Even with likely growing pains next year it would be reasonable to expect him to improve with more experience in the league and eventually become an ace. Given his age and what we know about his pitching ability, giving him around 200 million seems like a fine investment as long as the money does not prohibit filling other pressing needs.
With a likely impending bidding war that will result in Yamamoto being one of the highest paid pitchers in MLB history, this would be a career-defining gamble for Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro. If it works it could save their jobs down the road and if it fails it is all but assured that someone else will be running baseball operations in the future. Even if there's some industry skepticism regarding him, there's zero doubt that it would be the kind of "big splash" that would bring back a lot of excitement around the franchise and hoist the Blue Jays rotation into best in baseball conversations.