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What is the best starting rotation for the Blue Jays in the Wild Card Series?
How should the Blue Jays set up their starting rotation against the Twins?
With the Toronto Blue Jays loss to the Tampa Bay Rays and the Houston Astros win over the Arizona Diamondbacks on Sunday, the Blue Jays are now locked into a Wild Card series showdown against the AL Central divisional winner Minnesota Twins. All of the Jays’ games will be played on the road at Target Field in Minneapolis. With that in mind, how should the Jays handle their starting rotation situation for the AL Wild Card series?
The Analysis
To determine that, let’s take a closer look at some of the statistics behind the Jays’ top five starters.
2023 Road Record | Career vs. the Twins | |
|---|---|---|
Kevin Gausman | 15 GP, 7-5, 3.27 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 85.1 IP, 23 BB, 106 K, 9 HR | 11 GP, 1-4, 6.35 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 56.2 IP, 18 BB, 65 K, 8 HR |
Chris Bassitt | 16 GP, 8-4, 4.50 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 90 IP, 26 BB, 81 K, 19 HR | 7 GP, 1-1, 5.26 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 25.2 IP, 13 BB, 23 K, 5 HR |
José Berríos | 17 GP, 5-6, 3.97 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 99.2 IP, 29 BB, 91 K, 13 HR | 5 GP, 3-1, 4.03 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 29 IP, 12 BB, 35 K, 5 HR |
Yusei Kikuchi | 17 GP, 5-3, 3.77 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 88.1 IP, 21 BB, 94 K, 13 HR | 5 GP, 1-1, 3.38 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 26.2 IP, 7 BB, 26 K, 6 HR |
Hyun Jin Ryu | 5 GP, 1-1, 3.47 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 23.1 IP, 8 BB, 19 K, 5 HR | 2 GP, 0-1, 9.00 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 7 IP, 4 BB, 7 K, 2 HR |
If looking at just their road performance for the 2023 season, Kevin Gausman is no doubt the number one starter in the rotation with strong numbers across the board. However, Hyun Jin Ryu follows close behind in second, with Yusei Kikuchi and José Berríos performing about the same statistically. Of the five, only Chris Bassitt has been the one that has been hit hard and struggled the most on the road this year, having yielded 19 HR in just 90 innings pitched.
Moreover, if we take a look at their career stats against the Twins, a completely different outcome is present. The top three performers are Kikuchi, Berríos, and Bassitt in that order. Kikuchi had a solid start against the Twins this year, going five innings and giving up just two earned runs with four strikeouts. Berríos also posted a strong win against his former team earlier this season in which he went 5.2 scoreless innings of four-hit ball.
However, Bassitt had a terrible start against the Twins in 2023 in which he gave up seven runs in just four innings pitched. In addition, for whatever reason, Gausman has struggled mightily against the Twins in his career, including this current season in which he has given up 11 hits, seven earned runs, nine walks and 12 strikeouts in just 10 innings pitched. In the case for Ryu, his sample size is small, but he hasn’t fared well either against the Twins in his career.
The Final Decision
Taking into account the fact that Ryu has struggled somewhat in his final few starts of the season, along with his gaudy numbers against the Twins, he should be the odd man out in the rotation. As a result, this would be the ideal rotation for the Blue Jays based on the analysis above.
Game 1 starter – José Berríos
Game 2 starter – Yusei Kikuchi
Game 3 starter (if necessary) – Kevin Gausman
Berríos has fared well this season both on the road and against the Twins as he will no doubt be pumped up and be at his best to face his former team in the playoffs. Kikuchi has shown to be reliable on the road this season, along with his strong career record against his opponent. And of course, Gausman is a big-game pitcher so despite having a sub-par record against the Twins, his ability to pitch effectively on the biggest stage should enable him to fare well when called upon. Bassitt can serve as a long reliever out of the bullpen, since his numbers on the road and against the Twins are not favorable.
But of course, that’s just purely based on statistics and analytics, as time and time again, the Jays have been highly scrutinized on it. Therefore, when common sense prevails, the most probable starting rotation that the Jays will utilize is the following:
Game 1 starter – Kevin Gausman
Game 2 starter – José Berríos
Game 3 starter (if necessary) – Chris Bassitt
Gausman starting Game 1 is a no-brainer, as he is the ace of the staff and built to be the big game pitcher that he is. Berríos should get the nod over Bassitt for Game 2 for the reasons mentioned above already. Bassitt, despite his scary stats shown above, should be the do-or-die Game 3 pitcher if necessary just based on the fact that he was a big difference maker for the Jays down the stretch this season. Kikuchi deserves to be part of the Jays’ bullpen, so that he can piggyback one of the starters in event one of them has a short outing. As for Ryu, best bet is he will be left off the ALWC roster.
So as the Jays get ready for the Twins on Tuesday, look for Gausman to lead the way as the Jays look to avenge last year’s early exit from the postseason. Let’s go Blue Jays!