What is the best possible lineup for the 2023 Toronto Blue Jays?

2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – 1B

Modern thinking says you want your best hitters higher in the order, so this fits the bill there. Funny though, so diverse are Vladdy’s talents, he actually has a lot of the characteristics of a traditional No. 2 hitter.

He handles the bat well and puts the ball in play – his strikeout percentage of 16.5% in 2022 was lower than AL East contemporaries like Judge, Devers, Arozarena, and Rutschman, not to mention other AL goliaths like Trout, Ohtani, Correa, Yordan Alvarez, Julio Rodríguez … I could go on …

On top of that, he sees a lot of pitches (fourth on the team in 2022), and gets on base (career .358 OBP), while one look at his spray chart will tell you he’s capable of hitting the ball to all fields.

It’s true, Vladdy is the No. 2 hitter for both modern thinkers and traditionalists alike.

3. Matt Chapman – 3B

A few days ago, I caught a shot of Red Sox perennial prospect Jarren Duran arriving at spring training, bulging muscles barely contained by his t-shirt, his transformation from string bean to Incredible Hulk complete. Maybe it was the angle of the shot, but still, it got me thinking: why can’t the Jays ever have a guy who adds 25 pounds of muscle in an offseason?

Enter Matt Chapman.

Seriously, just look at it him! One glance was all I needed to become a believer in ‘Contract Year Chappy.’

If you’re thinking third in the order is a bit of a reach, remember, Chapman hit in the top three for back-to-back 97-win teams in 2018 and 2019, so he knows what he’s doing up there. Plus, if the oft-repeated line that you want your best hitter behind Vladdy to protect him is true, well, Contract Year Chappy might just be that guy.

4. Bo Bichette – SS

In John Schneider’s second game as Blue Jays manager, he moved Bichette into the cleanup spot, famously proclaiming, “the more we can get Bo up with guys on base, the better off we are.”

I’m a Bo-liever.

Simply, he just has that run producing stroke, the ability to fight off tough pitches until he gets one he likes, and power from foul line to foul line. Slotting him in behind what are likely to be the three highest OBP guys (not named Alejandro Kirk) on the team seems like a simple recipe for run production.

For me though, having Bichette hit cleanup is about more than that. For a position in the order which has traditionally been manned by intimidating figures with nicknames like “The Iron Horse” and “Killer,” Bichette's long hair, jewelry, and copious hugs make him the perfect cleanup hitter for the modern age.

5. Daulton Varsho – LF

There’s little doubt that Daulton Varsho is a major breakout candidate in 2023.

With defenses no longer able to shift him, he seems certain to better his .235 average – Varsho pulled the ball more than any qualified hitter in baseball last year.

With bigger bases and restricted pickoff attempts, he seems likely to exceed his 16 steals.

And in coming from Arizona to Toronto, the 27 homers he hit seem sure to be surpassed. Think about it: Chase Field in Arizona is 407 feet to straightaway center, with an almost ridiculous 25-foot wall; in Toronto, it’s 400 feet with an 8-foot wall. To right center, Varsho’s power alley, Arizona is 376 feet, while Rogers Centre’s new dimensions have moved the wall in from 375 feet to a Yankee Stadium-like 359.

All told, it doesn’t seem ridiculous to suggest Varsho could go 30/30.

6. Alejandro Kirk – C

Yes, in my best possible Blue Jays lineup, Alejandro Kirk is catching. Nothing against Danny Jansen, but Kirk is better than you think behind the dish, maybe even … elite?

Consider, according to Baseball Savant, Kirk’s strike rate – the percentage of non-swings on the edges of the strike zone converted into called strikes – was fourth in the majors in 2022. Simply, Kirk is one of the best pitch framers in the game. Danny Jansen, for comparison, was 37th.

Moreover, Kirk’s Pop Time – the time it takes him to get the ball down to second base – was actually better than Gold Glove winner Jose Trevino, while, according to Baseball Prospectus, he was among the best at blocking pitches.

So yes, Kirk is catching.

With that out of the way, why sixth in the batting order? Because that’s just how stacked the lineup is this year, that an All-Star on an upward trajectory who hit third or fourth most of last year can’t even crack the top five.

7. Danny Jansen – DH

Some might like the left-handed-hitting Brandon Belt at DH, in pursuit of the mythical ‘lineup balance’ we hear so much about. Yet, note that the Jays were actually better against right handers than left handers last year – in fact, they led the AL in batting average, OBP, and OPS against righties. They shouldn’t feel desperate to squeeze another lefty into the starting lineup, particularly now that they’ve added Varsho.

But it’s more than that.

The beauty of this best possible lineup is that we are assuming everyone is healthy. Is Danny Jansen going to play every day? No. Is he going to get injured at some point? Probably. But consider this: over the past three years, Danny has accumulated 519 at bats, slightly less than a full year for an everyday player. In those 519 at bats, he’s hit 32 homers with 92 RBI.

That sounds like a pretty monumental No. 7 hitter.

8. Whit Merrifield – 2B

Admittedly, it’s hard to leave Santiago Espinal out of the lineup; he’s a great defender, a great team guy, and was an All-Star last year.

But stick with me here. Whit Merrifield is a two-time All-Star, two-time MLB hits leader, three-time AL stolen base champ, and one-time leader in both doubles and triples. And it’s not as if this was in the distant past – as recently as 2021, he was third in the AL in hits (behind only Vladdy and Bichette), and led the league with 42 doubles and 40 steals.

Yes, his stats were down last year. But it appeared that he simply ran out of steam after playing so many years on a terrible Kansas City team. Traded to a contender in Toronto, he was one of the team’s best hitters down the stretch, batting well over .300 with an OPS approaching 1.000 in September and October.

With a full-season return to form, the Jays could have one of the AL’s better hitters in the 8-hole.

9. Kevin Kiermaier – CF

Kevin Kiermaier is not on the Jays for his bat, but for his defense (and, probably, his breathtaking good looks).

Yes, Kiermaier is not only a legendary pretty boy, but something of a legendary defender in center field, a three-time Gold Glover and Platinum Glove winner, who would likely have more if not for numerous injuries. When healthy, Kiermaier is basically the Matt Chapman of center field.

Ok, so he doesn’t hit much – a .248 career average, .715 OPS, and 82 homers in 914 games – but actually, he’s not a complete black hole with the bat. Four times he has stolen more than 15 bags in a season, and he has 51 career triples, including 7 in 2021. That same year, he had 15 infield hits.

Come to think of it, he’s kind of the perfect No. 9 hitter – a little speed and calamity at the bottom of the order.

What do you think is the best possible lineup for the 2023 Toronto Blue Jays? Where do you agree with me, and where do I have it wrong?

Let me know in the comments below or hit me up on Twitter – @WriteFieldDeep.