What are the Blue Jays' current playoff odds?

The Jays are going to need to turn their season around in a big way to make the postseason.
Cleveland Guardians v Toronto Blue Jays
Cleveland Guardians v Toronto Blue Jays / Cole Burston/GettyImages

The Toronto Blue Jays have fallen on hard times this season in contrast to preseason projections. While it's clear to see that the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees are competing at a much higher level than their division rivals, the Blue Jays are going to need to fight for a Wild Card spot barring a massive fallout from one of the strong aforementioned AL East leaders.

According to FanGraphs projections, the Jays are slated to finish the 2024 season at .500 with a record of 81-81 if their current pace continues for a full 162 games. This record is more than a stone's throw away from where the Blue Jays could be if more consistency in everyday players could be achieved, but this doesn't mean the season's out of reach. Yes, it's not a great situation to be in, but as of late this team has shown fight and grit in their play that could foreshadow a strong finish to the season. Taking 2 out of 3 games against the AL Central-leading Cleveland Guardians in somewhat of a commanding fashion is indicative of the ceiling that Toronto possesses, it's just a matter of how long they can continue it for.

FanGraphs also has their current playoff odds at an abysmal 18.8%, good enough for fourth in their division and eighth in the American League, putting them out of the playoff picture as of June 17. Although these numbers are simply projections based on teams' records and are not necessarily indicative of a team's ability to succeed or not in comparison to them, it's pretty grim to see a Jays team with so much potential scraping the bottom of the standings barrel. What might make Toronto fans grimace even more is the fact that FanGraphs' preseason projections likewise placed the Blue Jays fourth in the AL East but with a 49% chance to make the fall classic. Still not 100% but much closer than where they sit right now.

It'd be hard to believe the Jays would be sellers come the trade deadline if they remain around .500, but they could still try and be buyers for a late playoff push if possible. They've already been linked to a very prominent and talented center fielder, and a positive record around the deadline could be the push they need to take names and prove themselves to be among the league's best. If they can continue winning series like they did against the Guardians, then an active buying deadline might not necessarily be out of reach.

It's also worth noting that the Jays have an incredibly strong remaining schedule for the 2024 season, which FanGraphs rates at an average opponent win percentage of .511. What's more is that they're tied in this regard with the Boston Red Sox and only trail the Tampa Bay Rays, further enhancing the pure horror and bloodshed that is the AL East. So far in 2024, the Blue Jays are 9-9 in divisional play but have yet to face Boston as they begin a three-game set against the Sox in Toronto today. Their next four series are against teams with a record above .500 including the AL East-leading Yankees and their 50-win record, so they've got to bring their best over the following weeks if they want a chance at October baseball. If this team is going to make the playoffs, a lot has to change and it's got to happen fast.