Two trades and a free agent signing the Blue Jays could target from a Brewers rebuild

As visions of free agents Shohei Ohtani and Cody Bellinger dance in Blue Jays’ fans heads, there are some interesting trade targets that shouldn’t be forgotten among the hype. One team that has proven very active already this young offseason is the Milwaukee Brewers.

They’ve already held a press conference to introduce their new manager, Pat Murphy, after Craig Counsell took his talents to the North Side of Chicago. Counsell managed the Brewers to a 707-635 (.531) record over the past nine seasons, a stretch that included three NL Central pennants and five trips to the postseason in the past six years, plus a heartbreaking 4-3 series loss at home to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 2018 NLCS.

They traded Mark Canha to the Detroit Tigers for a minor league reliever, likely because they didn’t want to exercise an $11.5M club option on Canha’s services for the 2024 season. The trade saved the Brewers at least a $2M buyout if they’d declined the option. And they non-tendered former Blue Jay Rowdy Tellez and starter Brandon Woodruff, while adding Jake Bauers from the Yankees for two minor league outfielders.

But they have some more players to make decisions on this offseason, which is where the Blue Jays might have interest to deal again with the Brew Crew. While it might seem surprising for a team coming off a first place season with 92 wins in the NL Central, there are some team and player-specific reasons why they could deal some of their best players ahead of the upcoming season.

Carlos Santana, Jesse Winker and former Jay Josh Donaldson are already free agents, as are pitchers Wade Miley, Julio Teheran and Andrew Chafin. With those salaries dropping off, the 2024 team payroll is around $51M before adding back arbitration eligible players, which Roster Resource estimates at $47.7M.

But with three key players still potential free agents after the 2024 season, Milwaukee GM Matt Arnold and his front office have to weigh the trade value of dealing players with only one remaining year of team control, much like the Blue Jays did ahead of the 2023 season when they dealt Teoscar Hernández and Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Who could the Blue Jays target from Milwaukee?

What type of return could they get back for a year of control of Corbin Burnes, Willy Adames or Adrian Houser? What about players with more control like Christian Yelich, Tyrone Taylor or even Devin Williams? And, could a potential sell-off accelerate a quick retool for the small market Brewers to stay competitive after their recent run of success?

With Hyun Jin Ryu and Triple-A depth starter Zach Thompson declaring free agency, and trades that have thinned the organizational ranks of higher level starting pitching, like Sem Robberse, Adam Kloffenstein and Nick Frasso, Toronto is down to Mitch White, Bowden Francis and top prospect Ricky Tiedemann in terms of likely MLB-ready starting pitching depth for 2024. Could Burnes help there?

Corbin Burnes

After a season where only six pitchers made 158 - or 97.5% - of the Blue Jays’ 162 starts, it might be prudent to see that as a statistical anomaly in terms of extreme good health. Should the Jays want to add starting pitching depth, a potentially savvy solution might be to trade for a one-year rental on 29-year old Corbin Burnes so that Tiedemann can build up innings with Buffalo, and Alek Manoah can work his way back without the added stress of the Jays betting their season on his return to form.

Alongside NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell and AL Cy Young finalist Sonny Gray, who are both free agents, Burnes might be the best available starter ahead of the 2024 season. The three-time All-Star and 2021 NL Cy Young winner is only a year away from free agency, so is likely to want to test the market given predictions of a $275~350M long term deal in free agency.

Over the past three full seasons, he’s gone 33-21 with a 2.94 ERA and 2.92 FIP over 93 starts and 562.2 innings, with a stellar ERA+ of 141 and a 10.8 K/9 rate vs only 2.4 BB/9. In 2023, he helped lead Milwaukee to the NL Central title with a 10-8 record and 3.39 ERA over 32 starts and 193.2 innings, with 200 Ks and 66 walks, and an NL-leading WHIP of 106.9. MLBTR predicts him winning $15.1M in his final year of arbitration in 2024, a number that won’t scare away the Blue Jays.

In terms of acquisition cost, a year of Burnes would likely be somewhere between the two pitching prospects (Anthony Kay and Simeon Woods-Richardson) the Mets sent the Jays for 1.5 years of Marcus Stroman at the 2019 trade deadline, or prospects Luis Patiño, Blake Hunt and Cole Wilcox, along with catcher Francisco Mejía, who the Padres sent to Tampa Bay for three years of control of Snell in December 2020.

Willy Adames

After Burnes, Adames’ final year of team control probably holds the most value in a trade. He led the Brewers with 24 home runs and 80 RBI, but his OPS has declined for two consecutive seasons, from .818 in 2021 and .756 last year to .717 in 2023. He is one the better defensive shortstops with a dWAR of 1.7, the 6th best Defensive Runs Saved of +8, and 2nd highest Outs Above Average of +16. MLBTR projects his 2024 arbitration salary at $12.4M, up from $8.7M in 2023.

If the Dodgers are truly targeting Bo Bichette, could a year of Adames provide a bridge to rising Jays shortstop prospects like Orelvis Martinez, Leo Jimenez, Josh Kasevich and 2023 first-round pick Arjun Nimmala? Or could he slide over to third base to replace Matt Chapman, and give Martinez and Addison Barger another year of development?

Bichette has two years of team control left, so if he is unwilling to sign a long term contract extension with Toronto, his trade value will never be higher coming off another strong season with 4.9 bWAR. While we all hope he decides to sign a big contract to stay in Toronto, if that doesn’t seem likely, the Jays front office would have to listen to reasonable trade proposals from teams with multiple top-100 prospects like the Dodgers. Trading separately for Adames could be the back-up plan for 2024?